UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates

Ian Machado Garry

• Style & Strengths: Technical striker with clean movement, solid range management, and sharp counters. Good IQ and composure, particularly when dictating range. Favors the straight right and has shown growth with each fight.

• Status: Undefeated UFC prospect. Facing mounting pressure after recent controversies and canceled fights.

• Recent Events: Pulled out of scheduled fights citing illness and undisclosed personal issues. This raises questions about consistency and preparation.

• Known Weaknesses:

  • Vulnerable defensively in close quarters.

  • Prefers a slower, methodical pace—can struggle with relentless pressure.

  • Hasn’t been tested against a true chaos striker or grinding pressure grappler in his recent UFC fights.

Carlos Prates

• Style & Strengths: Southpaw with serious power, pressure, and a finishing mindset. Known for aggressive starts and body work. 100% finish rate in wins—big left hand, knees in the clinch.

• Status: Dangerous underdog and dark horse in the welterweight division. Not fully tested at elite level yet, but regional footage and UFC debut show scary potential.

• X-Factors:

  • Keeps tight stance and can disrupt rhythm fighters.

  • Somewhat wild—relies on chaos and power to force mistakes.

• Concerns:

  • May struggle if forced to fight at Garry’s range and pace.

  • Defensive gaps still exist—open for check hooks and straight counters.

Model Insights & Stylistic Flags

• Pressure vs Rhythm: Garry tends to struggle early against fast starters. If Prates storms out and corners him, Garry’s rhythm-based game could be disrupted.

• Finish Rate vs Level of Competition: Prates’ finishes come against lower-tier competition. Garry has faced and solved more technical threats.

• Mental State & Preparation: Garry’s recent pullouts and online controversies hint at possible distractions. This adds volatility.

• Underrated KO Threat: Prates is an underdog who could capitalize on Garry’s upright defensive posture with a left over the top or body knee.

Prediction

• Most likely outcome: Ian Machado Garry by decision (42%)

• Other possible outcomes:

  • Carlos Prates by KO/TKO (27%) — live underdog threat if he lands early

  • Ian Machado Garry by late TKO (18%) — if Prates fades

  • Prates by decision (8%) — less likely due to style and fight IQ differential

  • Draw/No Contest (5%) — possible due to volatility

Betting Model Note

• Underdog Watch: Carlos Prates has live early KO potential, especially in R1.

• Caution: Volatility is high. Garry’s discipline vs. Prates’ chaos creates a high-risk stylistic clash.

• Model Suggests: Prates R1 KO prop may be overpriced if available, but Garry still favored for long-term success over 3 rounds.

Anthony Smith

• Style & Strengths: Well-rounded veteran with solid kickboxing, sneaky grappling, and good recoverability. Uses a long jab, strong body kicks, and opportunistic submissions (especially from guard).

• Status: UFC veteran. Battle-tested with experience against the best at 205 lbs.

• Recent Concerns:

  • Durability decline: Has taken substantial damage in recent fights.

  • Speed & reflexes fading: Often starts slow and gets outpaced early.

  • Confidence dips: Some recent fights showed hesitation and lack of urgency.

• Advantages:

  • Fight IQ, submission threat if it hits the mat.

  • Dangerous in chaotic scrambles.

Zhang Mingyang

• Style & Strengths: Explosive power striker. Prefers brawling, closes distance quickly, and throws heavy shots. Favors lead hooks and blitzes.

• Status: UFC newcomer with high finishing rate. Known for raw aggression and one-shot KO ability.

• Concerns:

  • Unproven against elite: Has not yet faced high-level UFC competition.

  • Defensive lapses: Can overextend and is hittable during exchanges.

  • Unknown composure: How he handles adversity is unclear.

• Upside:

  • If he starts strong, he could overwhelm a declining Smith early.

  • Big threat to catch Smith clean early.

Matchup Dynamics

Prediction

• Most likely outcome: Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO – 36%

• Other outcomes:

  • Anthony Smith by submission – 22% (live if Zhang overextends)

  • Zhang by decision – 16%

  • Smith by decision – 14%

  • Draw/NC – 2%

Model Notes

• Volatility Warning: High. Smith’s durability issues + Zhang’s early aggression = KO threat.

• Underdog Watch: If Smith is a big underdog, his experience and grappling could offer value. Zhang is raw and may panic if dragged into deep waters.

• Fight IQ Gap: Smith can capitalize if Zhang shows rookie mistakes or poor gas management.

Giga Chikadze

• Style & Strengths: Elite kickboxer with dangerous body kicks (especially his liver kick), sharp counters, and excellent distance management. Clean technique, solid chin, and a sniper-like approach in striking exchanges.

• Status: Top-tier featherweight striker with past wins over tough competition. Coming off a layoff due to injury but previously demonstrated high-level composure and cardio.

• Recent Concerns:

  • Layoff/injury recovery: Had a lengthy break after the Kattar fight.

  • Takedown defense: Has improved but still not elite.

• Advantages:

  • If he controls range, few in the division can match his striking.

  • Durable and hard to fluster with blitzes.

David Onama

• Style & Strengths: Powerful, athletic striker with explosive combinations and KO potential. Pressures well and thrives in scrappy exchanges.

• Status: Dangerous but still developing. Known for flashy finishes but has shown defensive gaps and cardio issues in longer fights.

• Concerns:

  • Striking defense: Can be hit clean and often overcommits.

  • Gas tank: Has visibly slowed in past fights under sustained pace.

  • Experience gap: Hasn’t faced anyone as technically refined as Chikadze.

Matchup Dynamics

Prediction

• Most likely outcome: Giga Chikadze by Decision – 41%

• Other possible outcomes:

  • Giga Chikadze by TKO (body kicks or accumulation) – 22%

  • Onama by KO/TKO – 25% (early threat)

  • Chikadze by Submission – 0% (unlikely)

  • Onama by Decision – 7%

  • Draw/NC – 5%

Giga Chikadze 63% vs David Onama 37%

Betting Model Notes

• Underdog Watch: Onama has explosive finishing ability, especially early. Live for R1 KO.

• Pace & IQ Factor: If Chikadze establishes rhythm early, he can melt Onama over 3 rounds.

• Body Work Vulnerability: Onama has shown vulnerability to body shots—Chikadze’s specialty.

Michel Pereira

• Style & Strengths: Explosive, athletic, and highly unpredictable striker. Has matured from wild showman into a more measured, tactical fighter with strong cage control and surprising defensive grappling.

• Status: On a solid win streak with improved fight IQ. Now fighting at middleweight after years at welterweight.

• Recent Improvements:

  • Paces himself better—fewer flashy moves, more efficiency.

  • Cardio no longer a liability.

• Concerns:

  • Still susceptible to clean counters when throwing spinning or explosive techniques.

  • Can be nullified by strong clinch and pressure wrestling if taken out of rhythm.

Abus Magomedov

• Style & Strengths: Long, rangy kickboxer with a strong jab and sniper-like counters. Efficient with his strikes, has a slick jab-cross, and is patient to set traps. Underrated submission grappler.

• Status: Highly touted prior to entering UFC, but raised questions after gassing in the second round vs Sean Strickland. Still dangerous early with clean technique.

• Concerns:

  • Cardio red flag: Visibly fades after Round 1.

  • Inconsistent output: Willing to wait too long, which lets opponents build volume.

  • Pressure vulnerability: Fighters who push pace can break him.

Matchup Dynamics

Prediction

• Most likely outcome: Michel Pereira by Decision – 38%

• Other outcomes:

  • Michel Pereira by KO/TKO – 18% (later rounds if Abus fades)

  • Abus Magomedov by KO/TKO – 22% (early threat R1)

  • Abus by Decision – 17%

  • Draw/NC – 5%

Michel Pereira 56% vs Abus Magomedov 44%

Model Notes

• Underdog Watch: Abus is most dangerous in Round 1. If he can hurt Pereira early or lock in a slick submission, he has upset potential.

• Volatility: Moderate. Both are athletic and powerful, but Pereira is more battle-tested and has shown better fight durability.

• Pace Factor: Pereira’s new measured pace and improved composure make him a favorite to win late if Abus slows again.

Randy Brown

• Style & Strengths: Long, rangy striker with excellent use of reach, clean boxing, and sneaky clinch knees. Uses his frame well defensively and can fight at a measured pace or turn up aggression when needed.

• Status: Consistent UFC presence with wins over solid competition. More athletic and dynamic than most mid-tier welterweights.

• Advantages:

  • Long limbs and sharp jab frustrate shorter, less mobile opponents.

  • Improved defensive grappling and get-up game.

• Concerns:

  • Can get stuck against the fence under pressure.

  • Struggles when forced into prolonged close-range brawls.

Nicolas Dalby

• Style & Strengths: Durable pressure fighter with a grind-heavy style. Known for pushing the pace, walking opponents down, and mixing in takedowns or clinch control. Great chin and heart.

• Status: UFC veteran, hard to finish, thrives in dogfights. Often underrated but consistently durable and hard to put away.

• Concerns:

  • Lacks real power or speed—relies on volume and cardio.

  • Technically inferior striking compared to Brown, especially at range.

• Advantages:

  • Can drown opponents who fade under pressure.

  • Resilient and opportunistic if a fight gets scrappy.

Matchup Dynamics

Prediction

• Most likely outcome: Randy Brown by Decision – 43%

• Other outcomes:

  • Randy Brown by KO/TKO – 16%

  • Nicolas Dalby by Decision – 31%

  • Dalby by TKO (cut/volume) – 5%

  • Draw/NC – 5%

Model Notes

• Durability Watch: Dalby is incredibly tough and hard to finish. Even in fights where he’s outclassed early, he often makes it competitive by Round 3.

• Underdog Factor: Dalby could have sneaky value if Brown slows down or lets himself get pushed backward too often.

• Range vs Grind: This is a classic long striker vs. gritty grinder matchup. Brown wins if he maintains range; Dalby wins if he makes it ugly.

Ikram Aliskerov

• Style & Strengths: Dynamic and powerful striker with strong wrestling and sambo base. Excellent shot selection, particularly his overhand and straight right. Aggressive but calculated—likes to pressure and punish hesitations.

• Status: Rising contender with high-level experience outside the UFC (notably faced Khamzat Chimaev in Brave CF). He’s been dominant since joining UFC.

• Advantages:

  • KO power in both hands.

  • Excellent takedown defense and top control.

  • Composed under pressure and strong chin.

• Concerns:

  • Still hasn’t been fully tested by a sustained submission threat at UFC level.

  • May get overconfident in scrambles if he underestimates Muniz’s danger off his back.

André Muniz

• Style & Strengths: Elite BJJ practitioner with some of the most dangerous armbars in the division. Loves to pull opponents into his guard or take the back in transitions. Long limbs and underrated timing on level changes.

• Status: Former top-15 middleweight known for submitting Jacaré Souza. Recent setbacks exposed cardio and striking limitations.

• Concerns:

  • Striking liability: Flat-footed, slow hands, and minimal head movement.

  • Cardio drop-off: Fades badly if he can’t find early success.

  • Durability questions: Looked overwhelmed under pressure and ground strikes in recent losses.

• Opportunities:

  • If he can take Aliskerov down or catch a transition, his submission game is dangerous against anyone.

Matchup Dynamics

Prediction

• Most likely outcome: Ikram Aliskerov by KO/TKO – 44%

• Other outcomes:

  • Ikram Aliskerov by Decision – 18%

  • Muniz by Submission – 27%

  • Muniz by Decision – 6%

  • Draw/NC – 5%

Model Notes

• Key Risk for Aliskerov: Grappling transitions. Muniz thrives when opponents scramble recklessly—Ikram must stay composed.

• Key Risk for Muniz: Getting stuck on the feet or underneath Aliskerov in top control. If he can’t force a grappling match early, he’s in trouble.

• Underdog Watch: Muniz remains live for a Round 1 sub, but beyond that, the momentum swings rapidly toward Ikram.