UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder

Robert Whittaker – Former UFC middleweight champion, elite striker, excellent takedown defense, durable, composed under pressure, high fight IQ. He’s faced the best of the best at 185 and continues to evolve, blending explosive striking with defensive discipline and phenomenal scrambling ability.

Reinier de Ridder – Former ONE two-division champ (middleweight and light heavyweight), dominant grappler, long-limbed BJJ specialist, strong positional control. However, he is untested in the UFC, and his recent KO loss to Anatoly Malykhin showed vulnerability against power strikers who can stay upright.

Key Factors

• Experience Against Top Competition:

  Whittaker has fought Yoel Romero (twice), Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, Dricus du Plessis, and more. De Ridder has never faced a UFC-level opponent. That’s a massive gulf in experience and adversity.

• Stylistic Matchup:

  De Ridder’s primary path is grappling and positional dominance. But Whittaker has stuffed takedowns from Olympic-level wrestlers and scrambles better than most middleweights. If de Ridder cannot secure takedowns early and repeatedly, he’s in dangerous territory on the feet.

• Durability & Momentum:

  Whittaker remains incredibly durable and disciplined even after years at the top. De Ridder was brutally KO’d by Malykhin and may not have fully recovered from that trauma. If the fight gets extended, Whittaker’s pace and attrition striking take over.

• Transition Pressure & Grappling Scrambles:

  De Ridder thrives in slow-paced grappling-heavy matches. Whittaker’s speed, cardio, and dynamic entries will force RDR into a tempo he’s unfamiliar with. This will likely compromise de Ridder’s setups.

• Composure and Jet Lag Considerations:

  De Ridder has never fought under UFC pressure or on a massive international card. Octagon jitters and unfamiliar judging criteria also matter. If coming from ONE’s environment, he may not adjust well to pace, striking volume, and smaller gloves.

Robert Whittaker 72% – Reinier de Ridder 28%

Most likely outcome: Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO (Round 2 or 3)

Model Notes:

• De Ridder’s ground game is dangerous, but without consistent takedowns, he’s a sitting target.

• Whittaker has never been submitted and has consistently neutralized elite grapplers.

• The pick leans strongly on proven UFC success, defensive awareness, and the vulnerability shown by de Ridder in striking exchanges.

If Whittaker fights smart (as he usually does), this is a showcase matchup for him. Only real risk: early back take or RNC threat from de Ridder if Whittaker overextends.

Petr Yan

Former UFC bantamweight champion, elite boxer, outstanding takedown defense, high-pressure, durable, and highly experienced against top-tier competition. Known for his ability to read opponents and take over in rounds 2 and 3, especially in three-round fights. Recently, however, he’s been on a losing skid— close decision losses to top contenders and a possible loss of confidence. Still, he’s only lost to elite fighters (Sterling, O’Malley, Dvalishvili).

Marcus McGhee

Powerful striker with a sharp left hand and aggressive finishes. Comes forward with bad intentions and carries momentum. However, he’s relatively new to UFC-level opposition and has yet to prove his cardio or defensive depth over three hard rounds. He’s explosive but somewhat raw in layered striking and wrestling defense.

🧠 Key Factors

1. Experience Against Elite Opponents

• Yan has fought killers: Aldo, Sandhagen, O’Malley, Sterling, Dvalishvili, Faber, Rivera, and Dodson.

• McGhee has yet to face a top-15 bantamweight, making this a massive leap in competition.

• Edge: Petr Yan (by a wide margin).

2. Style Matchup

• McGhee is a fast-twitch, early finisher with power and athleticism.

• Yan is a slow starter, but reads opponents well and overwhelms them with pressure, combinations, and body shots.

• If McGhee can’t hurt Yan early, this becomes a grind — and Yan thrives in that.

• Edge: Yan (late rounds and attrition).

3. Durability & Cardio

• McGhee hasn’t been pushed late in the UFC.

• Yan has never been finished, and he keeps a strong pace for 3 rounds even in grappling-heavy fights.

• Edge: Yan.

4. Mental State & Momentum

• Yan’s recent losses could be affecting confidence, especially being on a 1–4 skid.

• However, none of those losses were blowouts—most were razor-close or based on style-specific disadvantages (like wrestling-heavy attacks).

• McGhee is riding momentum and will come in hungry, but hasn’t been tested like this.

• Slight mental edge for McGhee, but Yan’s composure still reigns.

5. Grappling Wildcard

• If needed, Yan can mix in trips, takedowns, and top control—he used this vs Sandhagen and Aldo.

• McGhee is largely untested off his back.

• Yan may not wrestle often, but if he does, it’s a bankable advantage.

✅ Final Prediction

Petr Yan 68% – Marcus McGhee 32%

Most likely outcome: Petr Yan by Decision

🚩 Volatility Notes:

• McGhee has real KO power, especially in Round 1. If Yan starts slow and gets cracked before adjusting, there’s danger.

• However, unless McGhee scores an early knockdown or finds a perfect shot, Yan’s pressure, durability, and experience should take over by Round 2.

Model Adjustments for This Fight:

• Give McGhee early KO equity (~8–10%), especially if Yan’s chin has regressed or he enters flat.

• Boost Yan’s win probability if he avoids significant damage in Round 1.

• Moderate volatility: mostly due to the unknown ceiling of McGhee.

Sharaputdin Magomedov

Officially undefeated in professional MMA, but not truly unbeaten in combat sports. He suffered a decision loss to Michael “Venom” Page in a kickboxing match, where he struggled with range management and elusive movement. Still, Sharaputdin is a dynamic Muay Thai striker with surgical accuracy, excellent timing, and the ability to punish pressure fighters with intercepting shots, spinning attacks, and well-placed knees. In his UFC debut, he showed strong control and finishing instincts but revealed some weaknesses in clinch exchanges and defensive grappling. Marc-André Barriault – Gritty, cardio-heavy UFC veteran who thrives in high-volume, grinding battles. He’s not the fastest or most technical striker, but he wears opponents down with forward pressure, clinch work, and dirty boxing. Barriault absorbs damage well and gets stronger as the fight goes on. While he’s been hurt early in fights, he recovers well and can drown fighters who fade or break under attritional pressure.

Marc-André Barriault

Gritty, cardio-heavy UFC veteran who thrives in high-volume, grinding battles. He’s not the fastest or most technical striker, but he wears opponents down with forward pressure, clinch work, and dirty boxing. Barriault absorbs damage well and gets stronger as the fight goes on. While he’s been hurt early in fights, he recovers well and can drown fighters who fade or break under attritional pressure.

1. Sharaputdin’s Experience vs Elusive Strikers

• His loss to MVP in kickboxing shows he can be neutralized by movement and timing, especially when forced to chase.

• Barriault isn’t elusive, but he does push a disruptive pace that can throw off rhythm-based strikers.

• That loss reveals a crack in Sharaputdin’s style: he’s elite in control, but less proven in chaotic momentum shifts.

2. Early KO Threat vs Barriault’s Durability

• Sharaputdin remains a serious KO threat, particularly with intercepting knees and spinning shots.

• Barriault has been dropped but never finished in the UFC — his chin, recovery, and willpower are elite.

• If Sharaputdin doesn’t land clean in R1 or early R2, the momentum starts to shift.

3. Pressure & Gas Tank

• Barriault’s gas tank is proven over three hard rounds.

• Sharaputdin has not yet been tested at that pace and intensity — especially not against a fighter who keeps clinching, walking forward, and throwing volume.

• This is Barriault’s clearest path to victory.

4. Grappling, Clinch, and Wall Work

• Barriault may not secure takedowns, but his clinch game is strong enough to slow down flashy strikers.

• Sharaputdin showed some hesitancy when pressured along the cage — and didn’t disengage quickly.

• Expect Barriault to invest in wall pressure to tire out Sharaputdin’s legs and hips.

5. Fight IQ and Adjustment Ability

• Barriault is consistent and well-coached but not highly adaptive.

• Sharaputdin is calculated, but we haven’t seen him deal with serious adversity in MMA yet.

• The MVP fight tells us he can be outpointed when denied rhythm.

Final Prediction

Sharaputdin Magomedov 51% – Marc-André Barriault 49%

Most likely outcome: Sharaputdin Magomedov by KO/TKO (Round 2)

Summary

• Round 1 favors Sharaputdin: his speed, precision, and striking IQ give him a serious edge early — especially if Barriault’s entries are predictable.

• Round 2 is the turning point: either Sharaputdin lands something clean or Barriault starts smothering him against the fence.

• Round 3 favors Barriault: if Sharaputdin slows down or is still in defensive mode, Barriault’s cardio and willpower can take over.

Volatility: High

• Sharaputdin by KO (esp. R2) or Barriault by Decision are both highly viable.

• This is not a confident lean — but slightly favoring Sharaputdin due to his striking edge and finishing danger.

Asu Almabayev

A grappling-heavy style, excellent chain wrestling, positional control, and high fight IQ. Trains out of American Top Team, has a strong regional background (former BRAVE CF champ), and is 2–0 in the UFC, beating Odilov and Costa via suffocating grappling. He rarely takes risks, instead systematically dragging opponents down, advancing position, and accumulating control time. Not a dangerous finisher, but extremely hard to score against and very efficient with energy.

Jose “The Mercenary” Ochoa

Late-notice UFC newcomer stepping in after fighting exclusively in lower-tier regional promotions (Combate Global, etc.). He has shown explosive bursts, a submission game, and unorthodox movement, but his takedown defense is untested, and his level of competition has been several tiers below UFC level. This is a huge leap.

Key Factors

1. Experience Gap

• Almabayev has 20+ pro fights and has already fought twice in the UFC.

• Ochoa has not fought anyone remotely close to UFC-level grapplers or wrestlers.

• This is a mismatch in experience and preparation.

• Big edge: Almabayev

2. Stylistic Matchup

• Almabayev is a control-based grinder, not a finisher — but his style is extremely effective against opponents who can’t stop takedowns.

• Ochoa is flashy and unpredictable but not known for strong hips or scrambling under pressure.

• If Ochoa can’t stuff the early takedowns, he’ll be on his back for long stretches.

• Edge: Almabayev

3. Cardio and Fight IQ

• Almabayev manages energy very well. He’s comfortable winning 30-27 decisions.

• Ochoa is dynamic early, but his cardio is unproven past Round 1.

• Almabayev doesn’t give openings and rarely makes mistakes.

• Edge: Almabayev

4. Finishing Potential

• Almabayev is not a big finisher — he prefers position over submission.

• Ochoa’s only path may be a wild early sub or explosive KO — both low-probability given Almabayev’s composure.

• Lean: Decision more likely than finish

🔍 Realistic Paths to Victory

• Almabayev wins if: he sticks to his template — takedowns, top control, guard passing, clock control.

• Ochoa wins if: he catches Almabayev early with a flying knee, spinning strike, or snatches a wild submission before the grind sets in.

This is the classic UFC-level positional grappler vs regional chaos fighter scenario — and 9 out of 10 times, the composed grinder wins unless something wild happens early.

✅ Final Prediction

Asu Almabayev 78% – Jose Ochoa 22%

Most likely outcome: Asu Almabayev by Decision

⚠️ Volatility & Watchouts:

• Ochoa has nothing to lose and may try wild scrambles or risky transitions — this creates brief danger.

• But Almabayev has shown elite composure and discipline, especially against more experienced opposition than Ochoa has ever faced.

Nikita Krylov

A long-time UFC light heavyweight with a chaotic, aggressive style. Krylov blends striking with strong top control grappling and is known for high output and early pressure. He’s faced elite names like Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz, Paul Craig, and Volkan Oezdemir. While his style can be wild and occasionally reckless, his experience, pace, and well-rounded skill set make him dangerous in all phases. Krylov’s recent wins over Spann and Oezdemir showed improved composure and discipline.

Bogdan Guskov

A powerful striker with a kill-or-be-killed approach. He’s explosive early, with a sharp left hand and strong finishing instincts. After losing his short-notice UFC debut to Volkan Oezdemir, he bounced back with a KO over Vitor Petrino, proving he can finish rising prospects. Guskov is dangerous in Round 1, but his defense, grappling, and cardio beyond the early storm are still questionable. He hasn’t yet proven he can win fights without an early finish.

Key Factors

1. Experience & Quality of Opposition

Krylov has fought the best in the division for nearly a decade. Guskov has power and upside but is still green at the UFC level.

Edge: Krylov

2. Durability & Chaos Management

Krylov is no stranger to wild fights, but he’s become more composed recently. Guskov can thrive in chaos, but if he doesn’t land early, he tends to fade.

Edge: Krylov (especially after Round 1)

3. Grappling Path

Krylov has an enormous edge on the ground. If he wrestles smartly, he can drain Guskov’s explosiveness and dominate positionally.

Edge: Krylov (strong path to win)

4. KO Threat

Guskov’s left hand is a serious weapon — he could absolutely catch Krylov early. Krylov has been dropped and submitted in past fights when reckless.

Edge: Guskov (Round 1)

5. Cardio & Pace

Krylov pushes a high pace for the division and has gone deep in many fights. Guskov is largely untested beyond the early going.

Edge: Krylov

Final Prediction

Nikita Krylov 59% – Bogdan Guskov 41%

Most likely outcome: Krylov by Submission (Round 2)

Summary

This is a classic “can Guskov knock him out early?” matchup. If not, Krylov’s pace, grappling, and experience should take over. Guskov has power and confidence but lacks the depth to deal with Krylov’s pressure and ground threat over time.

Watch for a dangerous Round 1 — but if Krylov survives, the fight likely shifts hard in his favor.