UFC Fight Night - Usman vs Buckley

Fighter Styles & Strengths

Kamaru Usman

• Style: Pressure wrestler with developed boxing and elite cardio.

• Strengths:

  • Outstanding chain wrestling and top control.

  • Superb fight IQ and ability to adapt mid-fight.

  • Durable, with only recent signs of decline (knees & reaction time).

  • Elite experience—former champ with wins over elite names.

• Status: Aging ex-champion coming off a few losses, but still extremely well-rounded and battle-tested.

Joaquin Buckley

• Style: Explosive striker with improved wrestling defense.

• Strengths:

  • Athletic, with powerful hooks and spinning attacks.

  • Recently reinvented as a high-paced pressure fighter.

  • Better cardio and takedown defense than earlier in his career.

• Status: Rising momentum at welterweight, with back-to-back high-energy wins and greater composure.

Key Factors

• Experience vs Momentum: Usman has elite 5-round experience against champions, while Buckley is on the rise but largely untested at that level.

• Cardio: Both have good cardio, but Usman over 3 or 5 rounds still holds an edge, even at his current age.

• Wrestling Edge: Usman’s wrestling is still a major gap—if he chooses to grapple consistently, he could wear Buckley out.

• Chin & Durability:

  • Buckley has been KO’d before (e.g., by Kevin Holland).

  • Usman is more durable historically, but took damage in fights vs Edwards & Chimaev.

• Physicality: Buckley is shorter and more compact; Usman has the reach and size advantage.

• Motivation & Decline: Usman’s recent losses raise questions about hunger and athletic decline, especially his knees and explosiveness.

Additional Factors

• Fight IQ & Adjustments: Usman is a tactician; Buckley tends to brawl early but now mixes in wrestling and movement better.

• KO Threat: Buckley has more 1-punch KO power, but Usman has the edge in consistent, structured damage.

• Gameplanning: If Usman stays disciplined and avoids a brawl, he can shut Buckley down with control and jab-heavy volume.

Final Prediction: Joaquin Buckley by Decision (or KO if Usman can’t grapple early)

If this fight happens today at welterweight, considering:

• Usman’s visible athletic decline and recent damage

• Buckley’s rising momentum, speed, and confidence

• Usman’s increasing reluctance (or physical inability) to wrestle for 3 full rounds

• The fight likely being a 3-rounder (not a 5-round title fight, where Usman’s cardio would shine more)

Then I slightly favor Buckley to either outwork Usman on the feet or catch him with a big shot if Usman stays standing too long.

Estimated Win Probabilities (Current Form)

Joaquin Buckley – 54 percent

Kamaru Usman – 46 percent

Fighter Styles and Strengths

Rose Namajunas

• Style: Technical striker with elite footwork and distance management

• Strengths:

  • Excellent movement and timing

  • High-level striking IQ and kick variety

  • Experience in five-round championship fights

• Status: Former strawweight champion, adjusting to flyweight with mixed results. Beat Ribas in her last fight but looked vulnerable to pressure grapplers recently.

Miranda Maverick

• Style: Physical grappler with forward pressure and clinch control

• Strengths:

  • Strong wrestling and top control

  • Aggressive pace and physicality

  • Still improving and in her athletic prime

• Status: On a solid win streak, gaining momentum in the division with increasingly dominant performances against mid-tier opponents.

Key Factors

Experience and IQ

Namajunas has far more experience at the elite level and handles high-stakes environments better. Maverick is still building experience, especially against top-10 opponents.

Striking vs Grappling

Rose’s striking is cleaner, but Maverick’s clinch work and takedown entries could break her rhythm. If Maverick chains takedowns together and holds position, she can nullify Rose’s striking advantage.

Cardio and Pressure

Both have solid cardio, but Maverick’s relentless approach could wear on Rose if she’s pushed backward consistently. Rose has shown mental lapses when pressure breaks her flow.

Takedown Defense and Ground Work

Rose has decent takedown defense but has struggled against top grapplers like Carla Esparza and Blanchfield. Maverick likely won’t submit her, but she can control position and score.

Recent Form and Momentum

Maverick has been more active and dominant lately, while Rose is still adapting to flyweight with uneven performances.

Prediction

Miranda Maverick by Decision – Her wrestling, pace, and pressure style could smother Rose’s rhythm. If she mixes clinch entries and mat control consistently, she can outwork Namajunas over three rounds.

However, if Rose controls range and avoids prolonged grappling, her striking accuracy could be enough to win a decision.

Estimated Win Probabilities

Miranda Maverick – 54 percent

Rose Namajunas – 46 percent

Underdog Watch

Namajunas is the betting favorite, but stylistically, she’s vulnerable to Maverick’s strengths. This is a high-value underdog spot for Maverick if she sticks to a wrestling-heavy gameplan.

Fighter Styles and Strengths

Edmen Shahbazyan

• Style: Striking specialist with explosive knockouts

• Strengths:

  • Heavy hands and sharp kickboxing – lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy

  • Championship-level power – 12 KOs in 14 MMA wins

  • Good takedown offense for a striker – 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes

• Status: Coming off a quick TKO win; inconsistent UFC run (3–5 last 8)

Andre Petroski

• Style: Grappling-heavy wrestler with finishing ability

• Strengths:

  • Solid takedown threat – 54% success rate, 3.38 TDs per 15 minutes

  • Strong submission game – 4 sub wins and 4 KOs in 13 victories

  • Disciplined defense – 85% takedown defense and 50% strike defense

  • In good form – 6–2 in last 8 UFC outings

Key Matchup Dynamics

• Striking vs Grappling: Shahbazyan has the edge standing with power and volume. Petroski’s gameplan is to close distance, secure takedowns, and work top control or hunt submissions.

• Cardio & Pace: Petroski’s longer average fight time (11:06 vs 7:01) suggests he can endure deeper into rounds and capitalize if Shahbazyan gasses out .

• Finishing Threat: Both finish – Shahbazyan with knockouts, Petroski with subs. Petroski may land a submission if he can drag the fight to the mat, while Shahbazyan is dangerous early with power.

Betting Odds & Public Perception

• Shahbazyan opened as the favorite at approximately –185, with Petroski at +154 .

• Analysts note Shahbazyan’s inconsistency and Petroski’s grappling advantage; Pickswise recommends backing Petroski for value .

Prediction

Andre Petroski by Decision – His wrestling will dictate where the fight goes. If he repeatedly takes Shahbazyan down and controls the action, he’ll earn decision rounds. A late submission is also possible but less likely than control.

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO – Likely early if he keeps it standing; one big punch could end things swiftly.

Estimated Win Probabilities

• Andre Petroski – 52%

• Edmen Shahbazyan – 48%

Underdog Watch

Petroski offers upside as the value pick. His wrestling negates much of Shahbazyan’s striking, and his submission threat adds another layer. Shahbazyan must engage early and land heavy or risk being taken down and controlled.

Fighter Styles and Strengths

Cody Garbrandt

• Style: Heavy-handed striker with quick footwork and speed.

• Strengths:

  • Former UFC bantamweight champion with knockout power (11 KOs) .

  • Connects at ~3 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy; strong knockout upside .

• Concerns: After a 14-month layoff due to vertigo and health issues, he lost by submission to Deiveson Figueiredo in April 2024 .

Raoni Barcelos

• Style: Well-rounded wrestler-BJJ hybrid with effective pressure striking.

• Strengths:

  • Grappling credentials: 5× Brazilian national wrestling champion, UFC black belt in BJJ .

  • UFC stats: lands ~5.1 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy; solid takedown success (37%) and defense (82%) .

  • In good form: 2-fight win streak with a decision over Payton Talbott and submission of Cristian Quinonez .

Key Matchup Dynamics

• Stand-up vs Grappling: Garbrandt’s power could end it early, but Barcelos may neutralize strikes with clinch and takedowns.

• Ring rust & health: Garbrandt enters after long layoff and vertigo scare; Barcelos is active and moving forward comfortably .

• Striking volume: Barcelos maintains higher pace and accuracy, while Garbrandt is more conservative but explosive .

• Cardio and durability: Barcelos goes longer (~12-minute average fight time vs Garbrandt ~9:40) and can absorb pressure; Garbrandt may fade late .

Odds & Betting Context

• Opening odds: Barcelos –180, Garbrandt +150

• Expert picks: Pickswise suggests no clear winner but favors finish bets; RotoWire endorses Garbrandt (+160) as underdog value .

• Community/AI picks: Tapology favors KO/TKO finishes (63% behind Garbrandt) .

Prediction

Primary Pick: Cody Garbrandt by KO (51%)

• If he catches Barcelos early with his high-level power and speed, this ends quickly. He’s worth backing as a finishing underdog.

Alternative Scenario: Raoni Barcelos by Decision (49%)

• If he avoids damage, uses grappling to slow the pace, and outworks Garbrandt, he likely wins a razor-close decision.

Estimated Win Probabilities

• Cody Garbrandt – 51%

• Raoni Barcelos – 49%

Given the uncertainty around Garbrandt’s health and activity, this is effectively a toss-up. Garbrandt’s power gives him the edge—but Barcelos’ consistency and wrestling make him a serious threat.

Value Underdog Insight

Garbrandt (+150 to +160) is worth a small play for a knockout or early finish. Barcelos carries safer odds as an active, well-rounded vet, but Garbrandt’s explosiveness could deliver high ROI.

Fighter Styles and Strengths

Mansur Abdul‑Malik

• Style: Powerful striker with knockout potential.

• Strengths:

  • Explosive volume—5.29 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy; absorbs 3.84 strikes per minute .

  • Heavy-handed, quick finishes—0.8 RTA average fight time; often ends fights in under 2 minutes .

• Status: Undefeated at 8‑0, UFC run off to a 2‑0 start. Big-money line at –600 .

Cody Brundage

• Style: Wrestler with improving finishing instincts.

• Strengths:

  • Solid grappling—47% takedown success, 68% defense.

  • Balanced offense—6 KOs and 3 subs among 10 wins; purple belt in BJJ .

• Status: Record 11‑6‑1 NC, has mixed UFC results but won his last outing via ground-and-pound .

Key Matchup Dynamics

• Striking vs Grappling: Abdul‑Malik’s explosive power contrasts sharply with Brundage’s wrestling base.

• Pace & Pressure: Abdul‑Malik tends to finish fights early—matchups usually end in under 1.5 rounds . Brundage has endurance and a grinding pace.

• Takedown Efficiency: Brundage may neutralize strikes if he lands takedowns, but Abdul‑Malik also defends well (82%) .

Betting Odds & Lines

• Abdul‑Malik: –800 to –1000

• Brundage: +550 to +700

• Specialists expect early finish—prop markets favor under 1.5 rounds .

Prediction

Primary Outcome: Mansur Abdul‑Malik by TKO (60%)

He lands early, heavy strikes before Brundage can impose a wrestling game.

Alternate Outcome: Cody Brundage by Decision or Sub (40%)

If he withstands the early storm and executes takedowns, Brundage could grind out a decision or finish with grappling control.

Estimated Win Probabilities

• Mansur Abdul‑Malik – 60%

• Cody Brundage – 40%

Value Insight

Abdul‑Malik is the heavy favorite—there’s little value in a straight bet unless prop-focused (e.g., early finish). Brundage is worth a small wager if you anticipate a takedown/control-heavy fight that avoids early damage.

Fighter Styles and Strengths

Alonzo Menifield

• Striker with power and volume: 4.00 significant strikes/min at 55% accuracy, aggressive attacker .

• Takedown abilities are limited: 0.56 takedowns/15 min with 31% success; solid defense at 78% .

• Durability: Allows 3.92 significant strikes per min with only ~49% defense rate .

• Experience vs elite: 16‑5‑1 record with UFC finishes, but has fallen short against top-tier wrestlers .

Oumar Sy

• Well-rounded striker-grappler: 4.81 significant strikes/min at 59% accuracy; absorbs just 1.71 strikes/min with 73% defense .

• Elite grappling: 3.21 takedowns/15 min with 40% success, perfect (100%) takedown defense .

• *Unbeaten in MMA (11‑0), strong UFC debut momentum (2‑0) .

Key Matchup Dynamics

• Stand‑up vs Grappling: Menifield thrives on striking but lacks takedown power. Sy can exploit this with wrestle‑heavy game.

• Striking Defense: Sy absorbs far fewer strikes and defends significantly better than Menifield.

• Fight IQ and Control: Sy’s elite grappling allows him to dictate range and nullify Menifield’s offense.

• Finish Potential: Both carry power and submission threat, making an early finish possible—but control favors Sy.

Odds & Betting Context

• Consensus moneyline: Sy heavily favored at –500 to –700; Menifield underdog at +380 to +500 .

• Expected outcome: Experts see Sy controlling on the mat and avoiding damage; Pickswise leans “fight to go the distance – no” (favoring a finish) .

Prediction

Oumar Sy by Decision (55%)

• Likely to use wrestling and top control to neutralize Menifield.

• Striking defense and volume edge could sway rounds even if no finish comes.

Alternate - Oumar Sy by Submission (20%)

• Ground dominance increases chances for a late choke or arm-triangle finish.

Edging Monies - Menifield by KO (25%)

• Early in the fight, he might land a powerful strike if Sy is caught. But Sy’s defense and grappling make this less probable.

Estimated Win Probabilities

• Oumar Sy – 75% (55% decision, 20% sub)

• Alonzo Menifield – 25% (KO upset)

Underdog Edge

Menifield thrives if he keeps this a striking match. His best chance is an early explosion before Sy establishes control. However, Sy’s takedown threat and striking defense make him the smart favorite.