UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 02:00 AM UTC

Disclaimer:

The information presented here is strictly for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to place any wagers. All insights and predictions are based on data analysis and do not guarantee any outcomes. Please gamble responsibly and consult a professional advisor if you need financial guidance.

Main Card
Preliminary Card
Early Prelims

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes (Light heavyweight)

Prediction: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO (Round 2)

Probability: Carlos Ulberg 70% – Dominick Reyes 30%

Underdog: Dominick Reyes

Carlos Ulberg

Record: 13-1-0

Age: 35

Dominick Reyes

Record: 15-4-0

Age: 35

Carlos Ulberg – A polished striker from City Kickboxing with excellent shot selection, composure, and patience. Known for tight defense, counters, and gradually overwhelming opponents with precision and volume. Recently has shown major improvement in composure, durability, and fight IQ—no longer reckless like in his UFC debut. Carries momentum and confidence as a surging contender.

Dominick Reyes – Former UFC title challenger who once pushed Jon Jones to a controversial decision. Tall, rangy southpaw with a strong left hand and solid kickboxing fundamentals. However, his recent run has been brutal: multiple knockout losses, visible decline in durability, and long layoffs between fights. His confidence and chin appear compromised.

Key Factors

Durability curve: Reyes has suffered several devastating KO losses in recent years, suggesting his chin is severely diminished. Ulberg, by contrast, has shown improved defensive composure.
Momentum & trajectory: Ulberg is on a sharp upward trajectory, while Reyes has been on a steep decline.
Striking style clash: Reyes’ southpaw kickboxing can be effective if he establishes range, but Ulberg’s timing, counter ability, and patience could neutralize it.
Cardio & pace: Reyes has slowed down in recent fights under pressure, while Ulberg maintains steady output and picks his moments.
Intangibles: Reyes has the veteran experience and higher-level past competition, but he hasn’t shown the same durability or urgency since his title run.

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan (Light heavyweight)

Prediction: Jimmy Crute by Submission (Round 1–2)

Probability: Jimmy Crute 58% – Ivan Erslan 42%

Underdog: Ivan Erslan

Jimmy Crute

Record: 13-4-2

Age: 29

Ivan Erslan

Record: 14-5-0, 1NC

Age: 34

Jimmy Crute – Australian light heavyweight with a well-rounded skill set. Strong offensive wrestling and top control, solid grappling with submissions, and some power in his hands. However, durability has been a recurring issue—he’s been stopped multiple times and his defensive striking has looked vulnerable against power punchers. Also inconsistent fight IQ, sometimes forcing grappling exchanges without proper setups.

Ivan Erslan – Croatian striker and former KSW title challenger. Compact frame, heavy right hand, and aggressive boxing style. Less proven at UFC level but carries genuine knockout power. His grappling defense is serviceable on the regional scene but has shown holes when pressured by strong wrestlers. This is his UFC proving ground.

Key Factors

Durability & decline (Crute): Coming off multiple stoppages, chin and confidence are in question.
Experience & level of competition: Crute has UFC-level experience against elite names; Erslan is transitioning from KSW to UFC competition.
Wrestling vs striking: If Crute chains takedowns and controls top position, he likely dominates. If he fails early or gets clipped, Erslan’s KO power can end the fight quickly.
Volatility: Both fighters have histories of quick finishes—Crute via submissions or knockouts, Erslan via striking. High-risk matchup either way.
Trajectory: Crute is trying to rebuild after setbacks, while Erslan enters with momentum and hunger to prove himself.

Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras (Featherweight)

Prediction: Jack Jenkins by Decision

Probability: Jack Jenkins 62% – Ramon Taveras 38%

Underdog: Ramon Taveras

Jack Jenkins

Record: 13-4-0

Age: 32

Ramon Taveras

Record: 10-3-0

Age: 31

Jack Jenkins – Australian featherweight with a grinding, attritional style. Known for brutal leg kicks, strong clinch control, and steady pressure. While not a huge one-shot finisher, he breaks opponents down with accumulation. His durability and toughness are solid, but his ceiling depends on his ability to keep fights in close range and wear down opponents.

Ramon Taveras – Explosive striker with finishing instincts. Dangerous in the pocket with fast combinations and power, especially early. However, cardio and composure under attritional pace are questions. Can be hittable when exchanges get messy, and less proven in extended battles compared to Jenkins’ grinding style.

Key Factors

Durability & attrition: Jenkins thrives in long fights where he chips away with leg kicks and pressure; Taveras has shown vulnerability to slowing when extended.
Power & explosiveness: Taveras has the higher knockout threat, particularly in the first round.
Experience at UFC pace: Jenkins is more settled at UFC level; Taveras is still proving himself against durable grinders.
Stylistic clash: Classic attrition fighter (Jenkins) vs. early chaos striker (Taveras). Whoever dictates pace early likely swings the fight.
Volatility: Elevated—Taveras’ early power creates real upset potential despite stylistic disadvantages.

Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny (Welterweight)

Prediction: Neil Magny by Decision

Probability: Neil Magny 55% – Jake Matthews 45%

Underdog: Neil Magny

Jake Matthews

Record: 22-7-0

Age: 31

Neil Magny

Record: 31-14-0

Age: 38

Jake Matthews – Australian welterweight with a complete skillset: athletic boxing, powerful hooks, and strong grappling. When aggressive, he can pressure opponents with striking volume and mix in takedowns. However, his inconsistency and tendency to fade against disciplined veterans has held him back. Best performances come when he fights with urgency and maintains output.

Neil Magny – UFC veteran with exceptional length and cardio. Known for his jab, clinch knees, and suffocating pressure along the cage. Durable, experienced against elite competition, and very good at dragging opponents into exhausting, grinding fights. While not a one-shot finisher, his volume and persistence break down less seasoned fighters. At 37, his speed and explosiveness are fading, but his durability and fight IQ remain intact.

Key Factors

Experience & composure: Magny has fought virtually every style at the highest level and rarely wilts under pressure. Matthews has struggled when forced into drawn-out, grinding battles.
Cardio & pace: Magny has a proven 3-round engine, often surging late. Matthews can slow when fights get ugly.
Durability curve: Magny’s chin has held up despite age and wars; Matthews has been more fragile under consistent pressure.
Striking dynamics: Matthews is sharper early, but Magny’s jab, clinch control, and volume tend to flip momentum as rounds progress.
Trajectory: Matthews is younger and more athletic, but Magny’s style historically frustrates fighters like him.

Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight)

Prediction: Justin Tafa by KO/TKO (Round 1)

Probability: Justin Tafa 60% – Louie Sutherland 40%

Underdog: Justin Tafa

Justin Tafa

Record: 7-5-0, 1NC

Age: 32

Louie Sutherland

Record: 10-3-0

Age: 31

Justin Tafa – Heavy-handed brawler with a straightforward style: southpaw boxing, big hooks, and willingness to trade in the pocket. Durable, aggressive, and thrives in chaotic exchanges. Limited footwork, defensive lapses, and struggles if opponents can wrestle or force him to move backward. His game is mostly KO-or-bust, though his chin and toughness let him stay dangerous late.

Louie Sutherland – British heavyweight prospect with raw but improving power striking. Strong physicality, aggressive flurries, and finishing instincts. Still green technically: defense leaves openings, cardio is untested at UFC pace, and his composure under fire is not fully proven. Big frame and explosiveness make him a threat early, but questions remain about his durability against UFC-caliber punchers.

Key Factors

Power matchup: Both men rely heavily on knockout power. One clean shot can flip the fight instantly.
Experience: Tafa has fought better competition in the UFC; Sutherland is stepping up from the regional scene.
Durability: Tafa has shown the ability to eat big shots and keep firing, while Sutherland’s chin hasn’t been tested at this level.
Cardio & pace: Both men slow down if fights extend. Tafa’s experience in deeper rounds gives him a slight edge.
Volatility: Extremely high—either man can end it within minutes.

Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell (Lightweight)

Prediction: Charlie Campbell by KO/TKO (Round 2)

Probability: Charlie Campbell 55% – Tom Nolan 45%

Underdog: Charlie Campbell

Tom Nolan

Record: 9-1-0

Age: 25

Charlie Campbell

Record: 9-2-0

Age: 30

Tom Nolan – Tall, rangy Australian lightweight prospect. Uses his 6’3’’ frame well with long straight punches, front kicks, and distance weapons. Aggressive striker who likes to push pace early. Still green defensively—can be hittable in pocket exchanges and relies more on length than layered defense. Cardio is serviceable but not proven under consistent high pressure.

Charlie Campbell – American lightweight with a compact, power-punching style. Likes to push forward, throw heavy hooks, and apply pressure. Durable, explosive early, and thrives in close-range exchanges. Can be wild, which leaves him open, but his grit and pressure style often drag opponents into brawls. Composure at UFC pace is improving, but still developing.

Key Factors

Range & length: Nolan has a big physical advantage in height and reach. If he maintains distance, he can dictate the fight.
Pressure & chaos: Campbell excels when forcing firefights; Nolan has shown defensive lapses when crowded.
Durability: Nolan has been cracked before—his chin is still a question. Campbell has proven recovery but can be countered when reckless.
Cardio: Neither is a dominant late-round fighter; edge goes to whoever dictates tempo early.
Volatility: High. Both are aggressive and hittable, making an early finish on either side very possible.