UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

Fighter Profiles

Arman Tsarukyan – Explosive, high-pace pressure wrestler with elite scrambling, layered takedown setups, and improving boxing fundamentals. Excellent cardio, strong durability, and one of the best minute-winning styles in the division. In his athletic prime and continuously evolving.

Dan Hooker – Tall, long-range kickboxer with sharp knees, creative timing, and deep veteran experience. Dangerous in open space with counter knees and long punches. However, he carries heavy cumulative damage, slowing reactions, and clear defensive grappling vulnerabilities, especially against persistent wrestlers.

Advantages

Tsarukyan:

• Superior wrestling, chain grappling, and scramble control (WPC + GFW synergy)

• Faster, younger, more explosive athlete (PPA advantage)

• Strong cardio with minimal output drop (CSI + DVB bonuses)

• Elite minute-winning style: pressure, level changes, tempo control

• Durable and less likely to be disrupted early (DIC strongly favors him)

• Tactical improvements fight-to-fight (ATB + EMB bonuses)

Hooker:

• Long-range striking craft with effective intercepting knees

• Creative shot selection when given space (RCE advantage at distance)

• Veteran composure during chaotic exchanges (CUPM benefits)

• Experience in long fights and ability to recover when hurt

Concerns

Tsarukyan:

• Occasionally enters range with squared hips, leaving brief counters open

• Can be too aggressive on entries if he becomes predictable (PEP factor)

• Needs to manage Hooker’s intercepting knee threat during level changes

Hooker:

• Significant durability concerns due to years of damage (DIC –10%)

• Slower reactions and declining pace (PDT + ACA penalties)

• Historically exploitable defensive grappling and difficulty standing up (SRC −7%)

• Long layoffs and injuries reducing athletic sharpness

• Can be trapped on the fence and outworked over rounds

Key Factors

1. Grappling Edge: Tsarukyan’s chain wrestling overwhelms Hooker’s stand-up-oriented defense, creating round-winning control.

2. Athletic Gap: Youth, speed, and scrambling quality strongly favor Tsarukyan.

3. Durability Differential: Tsarukyan is fresh; Hooker’s chin and body durability are declining.

4. Pace Management: Tsarukyan can maintain relentless pressure without tiring; Hooker’s cardio is less reliable under wrestling.

5. Judging Dynamics: Control time and top pressure heavily favor Tsarukyan in scoring (CDW weighting).

Volatility & Confidence

Volatility: 0.42 (low to moderate; stylistic control reduces chaos)

Confidence Level: Official pick – clearly above 60% threshold

Live Underdog Watch: Hooker’s only credible path is an intercepting knee or mid-range counter during a mistimed level change (low probability ~10–12%).

Final Prediction

Arman Tsarukyan 78% – Dan Hooker 22%

Most likely outcome: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO or Decision

Fighter Profiles

Ian Machado Garry - Tall, rangy, disciplined striker with excellent distance control, sharp jabs, long kicks, and well-developed defensive reactions. Fights behind structure, uses feints, and maintains clean stance discipline. Continually improving, showing higher accuracy and smarter round-to-round adjustments (ATB, EMB). Strong cardio, youthful durability, and rapidly evolving tactical maturity.

Belal Muhammad - High-output pressure fighter with strong clinch grappling, good top control, and excellent conditioning. Wins minutes with volume, cage pressure, and persistence. Durable and mentally tough with proven five-round experience. However, limited finishing threat, predictable entries, and slower pace changes against rangy strikers.

Advantages

Garry:

• Superior range management and footwork (MDB+ bonus)

• More accurate and defensively sound striking (SDI advantage)

• Better long-distance weapons: jab, side kicks, teeps, low kicks

• Youth, speed, and physicality (PPA edge)

• Continual technical improvements (EMB + ATB)

• Better counterstriking vs straight-line pressure (CEB boost)

Belal:

• Elite cardio and pace (CSI + DVB bonuses)

• Strong clinch grappling and cage control

• Persistent pressure forces opponents backward

• Deep five-round experience and high fight IQ

• Historically durable and difficult to finish

Concerns

Garry:

• Can be backed up if he circles too much without planting to counter

• Vulnerable in extended clinch sequences (GFW mitigates Belal path)

• Occasionally starts slow in round 1 assessing distance (SSA)

Belal:

• Striking lacks power to force respect; low finishing threat (ARP penalty)

• Predictable pressure entries against long strikers (PEP −6%)

• Difficulty closing distance against lateral movers (MDB+ strongly against him)

• Slower compared to younger athletes (ACA beginning)

• Limited mid-fight adjustment tools once kept at range

• Recent long layoffs create pacing and timing questions (RRSP mild)

Key Factors

1. Range and Footwork: Garry has a clear edge in long-distance striking and lateral movement, which historically troubles Belal.

2. Physicality Difference: Garry is the faster, longer, more explosive athlete; Belal relies more on grind than physical dominance.

3. Grappling Dynamics: Belal’s best path is cage control and occasional takedowns, but Garry’s improved balance and TDD reduce the success rate.

4. Volume vs Accuracy: Belal throws more but absorbs more; Garry lands cleaner and avoids big damage (SDI advantage).

5. Judging Considerations: In close rounds, clean strikes and obvious damage score higher than pressure without effectiveness (CDW weighting favors Garry).

Volatility & Confidence

Volatility: 0.51 (moderate; range fights can swing on optics but technical edges are consistent)

Confidence Level: Lean-to-official — slightly above the 55–60% threshold

Live Underdog Watch: Belal by decision through cage control and takedown accumulation in rounds 2–4 (~30% equity).

Final Prediction

Ian Machado Garry 57% – Belal Muhammad 43%

Most likely outcome: Ian Machado Garry by Decision

Fighter Profiles

Volkan Oezdemir - Technical, measured striker with heavy hands, clean counters, and strong early-round timing. Experienced veteran who has fought elite competition for years. Good at reading opponents’ rhythm and punishing predictable entries. Durability has declined somewhat, but his composure, accuracy, and shot selection remain very sharp.

Alonzo Menifield - Explosive athlete with big power, fast bursts, and improved defensive fundamentals. Dangerous early starter with compact punches and strong counter hooks. Cardio historically unreliable, but pacing has improved. Still relies heavily on explosiveness and struggles when forced into extended, technical striking fights.

Advantages

Oezdemir:

• More technical striker with better distance management

• Superior accuracy and counter timing (CEB applies)

• Much more experience against top-tier opponents

• Strong round-winning ability through clean counters and pressure moderation

• Better shot selection in longer exchanges (ATB benefit)

Menifield:

• Big early power with explosive first-round bursts (CTM + PPA)

• Compact hooks that can intercept forward motion

• Improved discipline in his last few fights

• Physically stronger and more muscular athlete

• Better clinch strength in short bursts

Concerns

Oezdemir:

• Durability decline (DIC −8%) after years of damage

• Slower footwork than earlier in his career (ACA mild effect)

• Vulnerable to a powerful early burst from Menifield

• Can be stagnant at times and let opponents dictate pace

Menifield:

• Cardio drop after Round 1–1.5 (CSI penalty ~−7%)

• Struggles against technical volume and disciplined counters

• Predictable blitz entries (PEP factor)

• If early finish doesn’t land, tends to slow and lose rounds

• Slower reactions in extended exchanges once fatigue sets in

Key Factors

1. Technical Edge: Oezdemir has the cleaner technique and more reliable round-winning style.

2. Early Power Threat: Menifield’s best chance is Round 1 KO; finish equity ~25–30% early.

3. Durability vs Pressure: Oezdemir must handle the first 90 seconds; after that, fight becomes more favorable.

4. Cardio Shift: Menifield’s explosive style fades, allowing Oezdemir’s accuracy and experience to take over.

5. Strength of Schedule: Oezdemir has fought and beaten much higher-level competition; Menifield can get stuck when faced with composed veterans.

Volatility & Confidence

Volatility: 0.58 (moderate; early KO threat raises uncertainty)

Confidence Level: Lean pick — passes the 55% threshold but not enough for a high-confidence official pick

Live Underdog Watch: Menifield Round 1 KO remains real due to power and Oezdemir’s aging chin.

Final Prediction

Volkan Oezdemir 55% – Alonzo Menifield 45%

Most likely outcome: Volkan Oezdemir by Decision or KO/TKO (Round 2)

Fighter Profiles

Myktybek Orolbai - Strong, physical pressure grappler with powerful entries, heavy top control, and surprisingly sharp boxing fundamentals for his style. Durable, aggressive, and able to break opponents with pace. Very strong hips, excellent clinch strength, and fast improvements. Carries real finishing power in both hands and a grinding wrestling game.

Jack Hermansson - Crafty veteran with good footwork, awkward but effective striking mechanics, and strong grappling fundamentals. Excellent at mixing takedowns with long-range striking. However, he is aging, slowing, and coming off performances that show cardio inconsistency, durability concerns, and reduced explosiveness.

Advantages

Orolbai:

• Strong physicality and pressure (PPA + CDT-like effect versus aging opponents)

• Superior scrambling strength and top control (WPC + GFW synergy)

• Younger, faster, more explosive athlete

• Better durability at this stage (DIC advantage)

• Effective forward pressure that disrupts Hermansson’s rhythm

• Ability to win minutes through wrestling and cage control (TNB active)

Hermansson:

• More experienced and seasoned against top competition

• Good long-range kicks that can slow pressure early

• Solid grappling fundamentals and opportunistic submissions

• Tactical veteran approach can exploit inexperienced fighters

• Decent cardio when not drained by wrestling pressure

Concerns

Orolbai:

• Still unproven against elite veteran middleweights

• Can be overly aggressive on entries, leaving counter openings

• Less comfortable fighting off the back foot

• Needs to avoid getting stuck in Hermansson’s long kicking range early

Hermansson:

• Clear durability decline (DIC −10%) and aging curve acceleration (ACA −8%)

• Has struggled badly against physical pressure grapplers

• Cardio fades substantially when forced to defend takedowns (CSI penalty)

• Slow starts and inconsistent output (SSA + UI penalties)

• Difficulty handling explosive fighters with persistent pressure

• Scramble resistance drops significantly after being taken down once (SRC)

Key Factors

1. Physicality and Pressure: Orolbai will likely dictate cage position and pace as the younger, explosively stronger athlete.

2. Durability Differential: Hermansson is visibly more fragile now; Orolbai much more durable.

3. Grappling Dynamics: Orolbai’s top control and chain wrestling likely overwhelm Hermansson’s slower transitions.

4. Age vs Surge: Hermansson declining, Orolbai ascending with rapid skill development (EMB boost).

5. Striking Impact: Hermansson may win early minutes at long range, but Orolbai’s pressure collapses space quickly.

Volatility & Confidence

Volatility: 0.53 (moderate; Hermansson’s experience vs Orolbai’s pressure creates some uncertainty)

Confidence Level: Official pick — surpasses 60% threshold

Live Underdog Watch: Hermansson by early-to-mid submission if Orolbai overextends in grappling (~15–18% equity).

Final Prediction

Myktybek Orolbai 62% – Jack Hermansson 38%

Most likely outcome: Myktybek Orolbai by Decision or KO/TKO (Round 2–3)

Fighter Profiles

Shamil Gaziev - Explosive, powerful heavyweight with aggressive bursts, dangerous counter hooks, and strong early-round physicality. Heavy hands, quick entries, and strong upper-body grappling strength. Cardio is a major weakness, but early finishing danger is among the highest in the division. Durable for the first round, but fades dramatically if forced into extended grappling.

Serghei Spivac - Clinch-heavy grappler with strong trips, body lock takedowns, and top pressure. Good ground control when he gets to favorable positions. However, durability is inconsistent, and he struggles badly against explosive punchers with strong first-round power. Slow starter with predictable entries and decreased resistance when pressured early.

Advantages

Gaziev:

• Far superior early-round explosiveness (CTM + PPA edge)

• Huge power in counters and forward bursts

• Excellent at punishing predictable wrestling entries (PCR impact)

• Strong upper-body strength and heavy clinch collisions

• More durable in round 1 exchanges compared to Spivac

Spivac:

• Superior grappling and top control once grounded (WPC + GFW benefits)

• Better cardio in prolonged fights (CSI edge)

• Strong trips and inside clinch takedowns if he gets past initial danger

• Effective once forcing opponents into extended grappling sequences

• Path to win increases significantly after 4–5 minutes

Concerns

Gaziev:

• Severe cardio drop after Round 1 (CSI penalty - 10%)

• Overcommitment on early flurries can lead to takedown opportunities

• Predictable when tired; becomes hittable and slow

• If he doesn’t finish early, his win equity collapses

Spivac:

• Durability issues, especially against power punchers (DIC - 10%)

• Slow entries that can be intercepted with big shots

• Mentally falls apart when pressured violently early

• Struggles with physically strong fighters who don’t accept clinch positions

• Has been stopped early by similar explosive archetypes

Key Factors

1. Early Volatility: Gaziev holds a massive Round 1 finishing edge; Spivac is historically vulnerable in this exact matchup type.

2. Wrestling Dynamics: Spivac has the better technique, but Gaziev’s early power and strength often shut down initial entries.

3. Cardio Shift: If Spivac survives round 1, probabilities swing toward him significantly (about 65% from Round 2 onward).

4. Durability Differential: Spivac’s chin and reaction to big shots are declining, making Gaziev’s early kill-shot threat decisive.

5. Gameplan Clarity: Spivac must survive long enough to wrestle, but the early danger window is extremely punishing.

Volatility & Confidence

Volatility: 0.62 (high; heavyweight explosiveness + durability concerns)

Confidence Level: Lean — passes the threshold slightly, but not official-pick confidence

Live Underdog Watch: Spivac by late submission or top-control TKO if he survives the first 4–5 minutes.

Final Prediction

Shamil Gaziev 54% – Serghei Spivac 46%

Most likely outcome: Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO (Round 1–2)

Fighter Profiles

Tagir Ulanbekov - Technical Dagestani grappler with clean level changes, slick back-taking, strong positional awareness, and disciplined striking defense. Uses a measured pace, relies on accuracy over volume, and wins minutes with control, scrambling efficiency, and low-risk grappling. Durable, composed, and consistent, though not a heavy finisher.

Kyoji Horiguchi - Elite veteran with lightning-fast footwork, sharp counterstriking, and excellent scrambling instincts. High-level experience inside and outside the UFC. Still dangerous and explosive in moments, but aging, less durable than before, and slowing slightly in scrambles. Relies heavily on movement and timing at this stage of his career.

Advantages

Ulanbekov:

• Better grappling structure and positional control (WPC + GFW synergy)

• Superior scrambling consistency (SRC advantage)

• Strong defensive awareness and ability to avoid big shots (SDI benefit)

• Takedowns reliably score rounds in flyweight fights (CDW scoring factor)

• Younger, fresher, and more durable at this stage (DIC + PPA mild edge)

• Efficient pacing and low mistakes (CUPM)

Horiguchi:

• Faster hands and sharper pure striking (ESB historically)

• Better footwork and distance management at range

• Elite timing on counters and strong defensive reactions

• More diverse offensive skillset on the feet

• Veteran fight IQ and ability to read patterns early

Concerns

Ulanbekov:

• Low finishing ability; may let rounds stay closer than necessary

• Sometimes too patient, giving early striking volume to opponents (UI factor)

• Not as comfortable if Horiguchi maintains extended lateral movement

• Needs consistent takedown setups to avoid getting countered

Horiguchi:

• Aging curve and durability concerns (ACA + DIC −8 to −10%)

• Declining speed relative to his prime, especially in scrambles

• Tends to get grounded by technically strong grapplers in prolonged sequences

• Footwork slows late when forced to defend takedowns

• Has shown vulnerability to back-takes and control-heavy grapplers

Key Factors

1. Grappling Advantage: Ulanbekov’s positional control and back-takes are likely round-winning tools.

2. Durability Differential: Horiguchi’s decline affects his ability to survive prolonged grappling exchanges.

3. Speed vs Control: Horiguchi wins early striking exchanges, but Ulanbekov wins long sequences with takedowns.

4. Flyweight Scoring: Control, damage, and clean grappling generally outweigh single clean counters (CDW weighting).

5. Pace Sustainability: Ulanbekov maintains consistent output; Horiguchi slows under grappling pressure (CSI penalty).

Volatility & Confidence

Volatility: 0.49 (moderate; small cage movement vs takedown dynamics can swing early rounds)

Confidence Level: Lean-to-official — slightly above the 57–60% threshold

Live Underdog Watch: Horiguchi KO or reversal-to-submission moments still exist (~15% equity) due to his timing and experience.

Final Prediction

Tagir Ulanbekov 58% – Kyoji Horiguchi 42%

Most likely outcome: Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision