UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Song’s speed, youth, and sustained output are major advantages here. Figueiredo remains dangerous early because of his counter power and opportunistic grappling, but Song is far more consistent minute-to-minute and tends to control range better against explosive veterans. Song’s jab, fast boxing entries, and lateral movement should allow him to bank rounds.

Figueiredo still carries real finishing danger. His guillotine threat, scramble opportunism, and counter right hand create volatility, especially in the first two rounds. However, recent performances suggest declining speed and reduced ability to sustain pressure against elite bantamweights. Losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen exposed issues dealing with fast-paced, technically disciplined opponents.

The matchup also favors Song stylistically because he is difficult to control for long stretches. Under the current model logic, Figueiredo’s grappling edge cannot fully activate unless prolonged control and reliable entries are validated. Song’s takedown defense, scrambling ability, and athleticism make sustained top control unlikely. That reduces Figueiredo’s safest path to victory.

Song also benefits from fighting in Macau/Asia, where crowd energy and familiarity could help his pace and confidence. Figueiredo remains extremely live for an early submission or knockdown, but over 25 minutes the younger, faster, more durable minute-winner is more reliable.

Most likely outcome: Song Yadong wins a competitive but clear 48-47 or 49-46 decision.

This matchup strongly favors chaos and finishing volatility. Zhang’s style is built around immediate pressure, layered aggression, and forcing uncomfortable exchanges early. Under the current model adjustments, sustained chaos and pressure now receive more weight, especially against fighters who can fade or become defensively vulnerable under extended aggression.

Menifield still possesses legitimate knockout danger. His power is real enough to instantly punish reckless entries, and Zhang’s aggressive style leaves openings during exchanges. However, Menifield has historically struggled when opponents maintain pace after the initial burst. Once pressured backward consistently, his defensive structure and output often decline.

The model’s Chaos Conversion Rule and Power Override Escalation both activate here. Zhang is not merely a wild puncher — he creates momentum swings, layered pressure, and forces opponents into reactive exchanges. Menifield’s durability and gas tank become more questionable the longer the chaos persists.

Another important factor is trajectory. Zhang appears to be ascending physically and mentally, while Menifield is entering the stage where durability and recovery become less reliable against younger explosive finishers. Menifield can absolutely win with an early counter KO, but minute-to-minute Zhang projects as the more dangerous and sustainable aggressor.

Most likely outcome: Zhang overwhelms Menifield with pressure and damaging exchanges, securing a KO/TKO in Round 1 or Round 2.

This is an extremely volatile heavyweight fight and should not be treated as a high-confidence pick. Under the current model, heavyweight chaos matchups involving explosive finishers automatically receive reduced confidence ceilings because a single defensive mistake can instantly end the fight.

Pavlovich still possesses one of the most dangerous opening-round striking arsenals in the division. His speed, compact combinations, and ability to overwhelm opponents before they settle into rhythm remain elite. Even after losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov, his power threat is still highly validated against nearly anyone at heavyweight.

Teixeira is the type of opponent capable of disrupting traditional veteran logic. He brings size, athleticism, aggression, and unpredictability. The model’s Unknown Finisher Adjustment and Chaos Expansion rules both activate because younger explosive heavyweights can rapidly exceed expectations before enough UFC data exists. His offensive confidence and physicality create real upset potential.

However, the current model still slightly favors Pavlovich because Teixeira has not yet proven defensive composure, durability under elite fire, or structured survival against top-tier heavyweight punchers. The Prospect Stability Penalty also applies: fighters without demonstrated adversity handling remain difficult to trust against proven elite power punchers.

Another major factor is entry punishment at heavyweight. Teixeira’s aggressive pressure style could force dangerous exchanges, but heavyweight fights punish defensive lapses far more severely than lighter divisions. Pavlovich’s straight-line counters and hand speed are likely to land first in pure boxing exchanges.

Most likely outcome: Pavlovich lands clean during an early exchange and scores a KO/TKO in Round 1, though Teixeira remains one of the live underdog upset threats on the card.

This matchup heavily favors Asakura’s speed, timing, and finishing upside. Smotherman is durable and willing to pressure forward, but that style can become dangerous against a counter striker with Asakura’s explosiveness. The model’s Counter Striker Punishment Upgrade strongly activates because Smotherman’s entries are often linear and volume-based rather than layered defensively.

Asakura’s experience in high-level Japanese MMA promotions against aggressive and athletic opponents is important here. He has consistently shown the ability to punish forward pressure with fast counters, intercepting knees, and combination bursts. Even when pressured, he remains dangerous because of his ability to create sudden momentum swings.

Smotherman’s best path is forcing prolonged boxing exchanges and testing whether Asakura’s UFC adaptation and defensive consistency hold up over time. There is some volatility because Asakura can occasionally overcommit offensively and become hittable during chaos exchanges. However, Smotherman has not yet shown the level of defensive craft or finishing threat usually needed to consistently exploit those openings.

The current model also emphasizes finishing disparity. Asakura possesses much higher proven fight-ending ability and cleaner damaging moments, which matters heavily under modern judging and volatility weighting. Smotherman may have moments with pressure and output, but Asakura projects as the fighter creating the more impactful exchanges throughout the fight.

Most likely outcome: Asakura hurts Smotherman during an exchange and finishes with punches in Round 1 or Round 2.

Matthews projects as the more complete and sustainable fighter across all phases. His recent evolution into a calmer, more disciplined pressure fighter has improved his reliability significantly. He now controls tempo better, makes fewer reckless decisions, and consistently wins minutes through balanced offense and physicality.

Harris remains dangerous because of his submission threat and opportunistic grappling. Under the model’s Opportunistic Submission Volatility and Chaos Scramble Exposure rules, fighters like Harris always maintain upset potential if scrambles become messy or opponents overcommit. Matthews cannot afford defensive lapses during transitions.

However, Matthews’ defensive grappling and physicality are likely sufficient to neutralize most of Harris’ control attempts. The model’s Grappling Validation Hard Gate only fully activates for Harris if sustained control and layered entries are validated consistently against comparable opposition, which has been inconsistent throughout his UFC run.

On the feet, Matthews should hold a clear technical advantage. His boxing is cleaner, his output is more reliable, and his ability to pressure without becoming reckless has improved noticeably. Harris can create awkward moments, but he often struggles to maintain efficient offense over full rounds.

The durability and pacing dynamic also favors Matthews. Harris tends to become less effective when opponents survive early grappling danger and force him into prolonged striking exchanges. Matthews’ cardio and composure should allow him to increasingly control the fight as it progresses.

Most likely outcome: Matthews avoids major submission danger, controls most striking exchanges and clinch sequences, and wins a clear decision.

This fight revolves around whether Perez can consistently force wrestling and pressure exchanges. Under the current model, grappling advantages only fully activate if entries and sustained control are validated. In Perez’s case, they largely are. He has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to pressure into takedowns, force scrambles, and maintain enough positional control to win rounds against high-level flyweights.

Su Mudaerji is extremely dangerous at distance. His reach, straight punches, and intercepting knees create real early-fight danger, especially against a fighter like Perez who has absorbed significant damage in recent years. The model’s Durability Exposure Rule applies to Perez because repeated stoppage losses and accumulated damage increase volatility substantially.

However, stylistically this still leans toward Perez. Su has consistently struggled when opponents can collapse distance, pressure his hips, and force grappling exchanges. His defensive scrambling and sustained anti-wrestling resistance remain questionable against determined chain wrestlers. Even if Perez cannot dominate top control for full rounds, repeated takedowns and pressure should still score well under current judging criteria.

Another important factor is pace sustainability. Perez tends to remain dangerous through sustained pressure and scrambling, while Su’s effectiveness declines more noticeably when forced backward repeatedly. The Flyweight Pace Override also slightly benefits Perez because relentless pressure and scramble persistence are especially valuable in this division.

Most likely outcome: Perez survives dangerous early striking moments, secures repeated takedowns and control sequences, and wins a competitive but clear decision.