UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape

Key Factors Applied

Advantages for Kape

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): Kape has the clear physicality edge, and Royval historically struggles when opponents can disrupt his long-range chaos with athletic bursts.

• Counter Efficiency Bonus (CEB): Kape’s high accuracy and timing punish wide, chaotic entries — Royval is extremely hittable (SDI penalty).

• Striking Defense Integrity (SDI): Royval absorbs clean shots in nearly every fight and gets dropped often.

• Chaos vs Untested Tech (CUT) variant: Against structured, explosive counterstrikers, chaos becomes a liability.

• PDT (Pace Degradation Trigger): Royval’s pace is elite, but he slows during extended striking brawls when he cannot force scrambles.

Advantages for Royval

• Late-Round Surge Bonus (LRSB): Royval has multiple comeback surges, especially in rounds 2–3.

• Elite Scrambler Factor: If he gets top positions or chaotic scrambles, he can threaten submissions (EGBF early, SRC against Kape’s historically mid-level scrambling).

• Durable Volume Bonus (DVB): He wins minutes with pace when he’s not getting clipped clean.

Concerns & Red Flags

For Royval

• Hittable early → Kape is a brutal counter starter (Chaos Threat Multiplier).

• Predictable entries (PEP) when he shoots low-percentage takedowns.

• SDI penalty significantly lowers his decision equity.

For Kape

• Urgency Index (UI): He sometimes gives away first rounds by low activity.

• Slow Starter Adjustment (SSA): Royval’s early chaos could steal early momentum.

• High volatility means one mistake can flip the fight.

Final Assessment

Kape’s athletic advantages, accuracy, and counter-striking align strongly with Royval’s defensive weaknesses. However, Royval’s scrambling, pace, and late-round surge threat keep this from being a high-confidence pick.

Lean: Kape (not official pick)

If probabilities shift above 60% or volatile factors change (weigh-ins, interviews, layoff indicators), we can re-evaluate.

Key Factors Applied

Why Vallejos Edges It

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): Young, explosive contenders get a notable boost vs aging counter-kickers.

• Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM): Vallejos’ style is especially dangerous for fighters who need rhythm and range to operate.

• Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA): Giga is over 35 with long layoffs and visible declines in pace and durability.

• Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT): Giga slows down if pressured; Vallejos’ constant movement and output exacerbate this.

• Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): Vallejos’ last two fights show clear improvement in composure, accuracy, and fight IQ.

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): Vallejos maintains activity deeper into fights; Giga tends to fade.

Why Giga Still Has Real Upside

• Veteran Technical Fighter Exception: Highly skilled technicians age more gracefully (softens ACA but doesn’t eliminate it).

• Mobility Disruption Bonus: His footwork can neutralize straight-line rushes.

• Counter-kick threat: If Vallejos overextends early, he can be punished badly.

Concerns

For Giga

• Long layoffs increase volatility and reduce confidence gating.

• Known issues with pressure and physical strength in opponent.

• Aging, declining urgency, and decreased ability to sustain kicking volume.

For Vallejos

• Still raw with defensive lapses; Giga punishes lapses sharply.

• Over-aggression could lead to counters or body-kick attrition.

• If he cannot disrupt Giga early, the fight becomes a much closer technical match.

Final Assessment

All durability, physicality, momentum, and aging curve metrics push this toward the younger, faster, increasingly composed Vallejos.

Lean: Vallejos

(Not an official pick due to volatility.)

Key Factors Applied

Why Oleksiejczuk Is Favored

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): Cezary’s pace, strength, and forward pressure disrupt range-based kickboxers transitioning to MMA.

• Glove Transition Volatility (GTV): Almeida’s striking is elite, but small gloves + MMA scrambling increase his defensive risk.

• Composure Under Pressure Modifier (CUPM): Oleksiejczuk handles chaos and rallies late; Almeida’s MMA experience is thin.

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): Oleksiejczuk maintains his pace deeper into fights; Almeida slows under clinch/wrestling pressure.

• Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP) for Almeida shooting low-percentage takedowns if he panics defensively.

• Control vs Damage Weight (CDW): Oleksiejczuk wins minutes with pace and volume, even without dominant grappling.

Why Almeida Has Upside

• Evolved Striker Bonus (ESB): Rapid striking improvement in MMA; clean technique and accuracy.

• Counter-kick threat: Footwork and body attacks can tax pressure fighters.

• Better moment-to-moment skill: In a pure striking match, he is superior.

Concerns

For Almeida

• Grappling fallback is limited; poor scrambling triggers SRC penalty vs pace fighters.

• Chaos exchanges favor Cezary (+CTM).

• MMA experience gap is huge — only a few pro fights.

For Oleksiejczuk

• Still hittable; Almeida punishes mistakes sharply.

• Over-aggression could run him into counters.

• If he slows early, Almeida takes over on technique.

Final Assessment

Stylistically this is the classic matchup that historically troubles elite kickboxers entering MMA: relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and physicality. All system factors align more strongly with the younger, more complete MMA fighter.

Official Pick: Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Most likely: decision or KO/TKO

Key Factors Applied

Why Charrière Is Favored

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): Charrière is the much more explosive fighter; Costa struggles when forced into physical exchanges.

• Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM): Costa’s defensive lapses and tendency to get drawn into trades elevate Morgan’s finish threat.

• Evolved Striker Bonus (ESB): Charrière has shown sharp improvements in accuracy and shot selection.

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): Costa’s output visibly drops after round 1 in multiple fights (-7% PDT penalty).

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): No major red flags for Morgan; Costa has been hurt multiple times despite surviving.

• Momentum & Confidence Rebound (CRM + ARI): Charrière is in his best form—recent performances show regained aggression and stability.

• Composure Under Pressure Modifier (CUPM): Morgan now maintains pace and poise in longer fights; Costa fades when pressured.

Why Costa Still Has Paths

• Range kicking and footwork can frustrate Charrière early.

• If he avoids exchanges and forces a technical fight, Morgan’s aggression can be neutralized.

• Costa has grappling layers and can slow the fight if he mixes clinch/wrestling (GFW partial benefit).

Concerns

For Costa

• Consistent PDT: pace/accuracy fade after fast starts.

• Defensive integrity at mid-range is shaky (SDI risk).

• Doesn’t threaten enough damage to keep Charrière honest.

• Vulnerable to body attacks, which Morgan excels at.

For Charrière

• If he returns to old habits (over-aggression), Costa can counter.

• Costa’s grappling may slow momentum if Morgan overcommits.

Final Assessment

Physicality, momentum, cardio reliability, and finishing threat all favor Morgan Charrière. Costa can win minutes with range and movement, but consistency and durability swing the probability toward Morgan.

Official Pick: Morgan Charrière

Most likely outcome: KO/TKO or decision

Key Factors Applied

Why Buchecha Is Strongly Favored

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Buchecha’s relentless chain-wrestling and submission-oriented pressure is the exact archetype that historically breaks Kennedy.

• Scramble Resistance Coefficient (SRC): Kennedy loses positions quickly once taken down; Buchecha is elite at capitalizing.

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Massive boost—Buchecha always has a dominant fallback path when striking is not needed.

• Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP): Kennedy’s tall, upright stance and slow reactions make Buchecha’s entries far safer.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Kennedy is on a clear durability decline; Buchecha’s early subs are extremely high equity.

• Pace & Pressure Reliability: Buchecha maintains control and pressure without gassing (CSI advantage).

• ARC & CUPM: Buchecha handles adversity well; Kennedy collapses when stuck under control pressure.

Why Kennedy Still Has Some Win Equity

• Buchecha is hittable entering range; Kennedy has real KO power.

• If Buchecha can’t get takedowns early, Kennedy’s long strikes could take over.

• Kennedy does win rounds when given space, though Buchecha likely won’t allow it.

Concerns

For Kennedy

• Extremely slow starter (SSA).

• Poor TDD, worse scramble defense.

• Low urgency (UI) means he often allows early takedowns without resistance.

• Durability decline—bad matchup vs a finisher.

For Buchecha

• Still improving striking—can be hit clean on entries.

• If Kennedy survives the first 7–8 minutes, fight dynamics shift slightly.

Final Assessment

This is one of the clearest stylistic mismatches on the entire card.

Kennedy’s defensive issues and declining durability are directly targeted by Buchecha’s biggest strengths: persistence, grappling control, and early submission threat.

Official Pick: Marcus Buchecha

Most likely: Submission (Round 1 or 2)

Key Factors Applied

Why Gibson Is Favored

• Pressure-fighter reliability upgrade: Gibson pressures with structure and defense — exactly the style that exploits Green’s defensive flaws.

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): Gibson maintains his pace; Green noticeably slows after explosive starts (−7% PDT).

• Striking Defense Integrity (SDI): Green is hittable when fights get extended; Gibson lands clean and safe.

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Gibson has consistent clinch/wrestling layers Green doesn’t handle well.

• Gameplan Discipline Bonus (GDB): Gibson rarely deviates; Green often fights emotionally or reacts instead of leading.

• Volatility Control: Gibson’s disciplined approach reduces chaos — a major factor since chaos is Green’s best win path.

• CUPM (Composure under pressure): Gibson remains stable; Green becomes erratic under sustained offense.

Why Green Still Has Win Equity

• Early explosiveness gives him real KO potential (CTM).

• Gibson can sometimes be too patient early, giving Green a window.

• If Green finds range and keeps it clean, he’s technically sharp.

Concerns

For Green

• Fades under layered pressure.

• Scramble inefficiency (SRC penalty).

• Defensive lapses in extended exchanges.

• Can get trapped on fence → Gibson thrives there.

For Gibson

• Must avoid early chaos.

• If he stands at mid-range too long, Green lands the more dangerous shots.

Final Assessment

Gibson’s composure, cardio, pressure structure, and grappling depth directly exploit the areas where King Green is most vulnerable. Green is dangerous early, but long-term winning conditions overwhelmingly favor Gibson.

Official Pick: Lance Gibson Jr.

Most likely: Decision or late submission