UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Fighter Profiles

Charles Oliveira

• Style: Elite submission finisher with creative Muay Thai striking.

• Strengths: Dangerous everywhere — slick front chokes, top-tier clinch knees, vicious elbows, and opportunistic fight IQ when opponents panic.

• Weaknesses: Durability declining, chin compromised post-Makhachev and Dariush; slower recovery; cardio can fade under relentless wrestlers.

• Status: Veteran ex-champion with massive experience, but visibly declined durability curve (ADC & DIC triggered).

Mateusz Gamrot

• Style: Chain wrestler and relentless scrambler with elite cardio and pressure.

• Strengths: Exceptional scramble recovery, endless pace, and positional control. Great fight IQ and discipline.

• Weaknesses: Not a finisher — lacks real power; sometimes fails to capitalize when opponents are hurt.

• Status: Prime conditioning window; improving striking defense; embodies WPC (Wrestler Persistence Coefficient).

Key Factors

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Gamrot excels here. His chain wrestling and relentless transitions can neutralize Oliveira’s guard-based threats. (+8% Gamrot)

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Oliveira always has submission threat, but Gamrot’s scramble cardio reduces submission conversion odds. (+4% Gamrot net after adjustment)

• Aging & Damage Curve (ADC): Oliveira’s durability has clearly eroded post-Volkanovski spar rumors and repeated KOs/drops. (-10% Oliveira)

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Oliveira’s chin check issues vs Gaethje and Makhachev. (-8% Oliveira)

• Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Gamrot showed adaptation vs Turner and Tsarukyan. (+5% Gamrot)

• Urgency Index (UI): Oliveira can start explosively but becomes less urgent when pressured or clipped. (-4% Oliveira)

• Recent Rout/Stalled Performance Check (RRSP): Oliveira was nearly finished multiple times recently; his resilience is showing cracks. (-6% Oliveira)

• Style Inversion Check (SIC): Gamrot now comfortable striking just enough to mix in his takedowns; Oliveira’s defensive striking unreliable under level changes. (-5% Oliveira)

• Title Bias (none) — non-title bout.

Volatility and Calibration

• Volatility: 0.54 → medium-high due to Oliveira’s kill-or-be-killed style.

• Gamrot’s control-to-damage ratio: sufficient to edge decisions even if not finishing.

• Oliveira’s path: early submission or flying knee chaos. But Gamrot’s discipline and top pressure limit those windows.

Fighter Profiles

Deiveson Figueiredo

• Style: Power striker with elite grappling instincts, explosive bursts, and deadly counter shots.

• Strengths: One-punch power, tight guillotine and control top game, proven championship composure.

• Weaknesses: Aging at 36; output and durability both declining; cardio inconsistent when pace ramps up.

• Status: Former flyweight champ now at bantamweight — no longer as fast or as hard-hitting relative to opponents; durability curve and urgency declining (ADC, ACA, and UI triggered).

Montel Jackson

• Style: Long, technical boxer-wrestler hybrid with measured pace and precise counters.

• Strengths: Exceptional reach, patient jab, solid defensive wrestling, and efficient striking accuracy.

• Weaknesses: Low output and passivity in certain rounds (UI penalty); can be too patient and lose minutes; hasn’t faced championship-caliber competition yet.

• Status: Physical prime (32), with improving composure — but untested against elite pressure.

Key Factors

• Aging & Damage Curve (ADC): Figueiredo’s speed and durability visibly dipped post-Moreno wars. (-10% Figueiredo)

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Multiple damaging fights; flash KO risk increased vs fresh, long strikers. (-8% Figueiredo)

• Urgency Index (UI): Jackson’s tendency to coast reduces dominance potential. (-5% Jackson)

• Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Figueiredo’s move to bantamweight looked better than expected; improved composure and weight cut management vs Font. (+5% Figueiredo)

• Style Inversion Check (SIC): Jackson’s reach advantage may be neutralized by Figueiredo’s counters and wrestling mix. (-3% Jackson)

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Figueiredo retains elite grappling fallback with submission threat even at 135. (+6% Figueiredo)

• Recent Rout/Stalled Performance Check (RRSP): Both looked competent recently — no major penalties.

• Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): Jackson’s low aggression could cost him if he allows Figueiredo to dictate tempo. (-6% Jackson)

Volatility and Calibration

• Volatility: 0.50 — moderate; Jackson steady but Figueiredo’s explosiveness adds risk swings.

• Dynamic: Early danger from Figueiredo (Round 1–2 power and grappling) vs Jackson’s slow-volume control game.

• If Figueiredo’s cardio holds, he wins on moments and control; if not, Jackson can edge later rounds by volume.

Fighter Profiles

Vicente Luque

• Style: Well-rounded Muay Thai pressure fighter with slick boxing, elbows, and underrated grappling.

• Strengths: Durable (historically), high fight IQ, excellent offensive transitions (strikes to subs).

• Weaknesses: Mileage-heavy; recent KO loss to Dos Anjos and severe brain bleed scare; slower reactions and diminished chin.

• Status: Experienced veteran but firmly in decline phase (ADC + DIC triggered).

Joel Álvarez

• Style: Tall, rangy submission artist with devastating knees and long-range striking.

• Strengths: Lethal guillotine and elbows; 100% finish rate; opportunistic ground game.

• Weaknesses: Defensive grappling from bottom suspect; cardio and pace control not elite; hasn’t fought many elite pressure fighters.

• Status: In physical prime and rapidly improving striking composure (ABF active).

Key Factors

• Aging & Damage Curve (ADC): Luque’s decline in durability and explosiveness after multiple wars. ( − 10 % Luque )

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Recent heavy damage and post-concussion recovery still visible. ( − 8 % Luque )

• Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Álvarez looked notably sharper and more measured in last two appearances. ( + 6 % Álvarez )

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Both can grapple, but Álvarez’s length and choke setups give him edge when scrambles occur. ( + 4 % Álvarez )

• Urgency Index (UI): Luque’s pace slowed; no longer the constant pressure fighter. ( − 5 % Luque )

• Style Inversion Check (SIC): Álvarez’s tall striking creates range control that negates Luque’s pocket boxing. ( − 5 % Luque )

• Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): Álvarez sometimes coasts if fight slows, but Luque’s lack of volume lately balances it. (neutral)

• Recent Rout/Stalled Performance (RRSP): Luque was dominated by RDA—counts as a stalled performance penalty. ( − 7 % Luque )

• Grappling/Cardio Efficiency: Álvarez has shown improved defensive reactions, no major fatigue drops recently. (+3 %)

Volatility and Calibration

• Volatility: 0.58 → slightly high (Luque’s chin decline + Álvarez’s finishing style).

• Fight Dynamic: Luque’s path requires early pocket success without getting clipped or caught in a choke. Álvarez can use distance and knees to punish entries and opportunistic submissions.

Fighter Profiles

Jhonata Diniz

• Style: Explosive heavyweight kickboxer transitioning from Glory with sharp low kicks and counter power.

• Strengths: Fast hands for his size, devastating power, solid defensive guard, and good composure under pressure.

• Weaknesses: Limited grappling and ground escapes; untested in deep rounds under sustained wrestling.

• Status: Rising heavyweight prospect showing strong composure and finishing instinct. (ABF active — continued improvement in composure and pacing.)

Mário Pinto

• Style: Wild brawler/grappler with decent wrestling base and heavy ground-and-pound.

• Strengths: Aggression and pressure; can overwhelm opponents early if he gets top control.

• Weaknesses: Poor defensive striking, porous entries, gas tank fades after Round 1½; susceptible to straight counters and low-kick punishment.

• Status: Underdog grinder archetype with limited experience vs elite power strikers. (RRSP risk: his last fight showed cardio and composure collapse once pressured.)

Key Factors

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Pinto attempts takedowns but lacks chain-wrestling efficiency and cardio for sustained success. (Neutral → no WPC boost.)

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Pinto’s only path is early takedown control; Diniz’s sprawl and balance improving. (+5% Diniz net)

• Aging & Damage Curve (ADC): Both young — no penalty.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Diniz fresh, proven chin in kickboxing. (+5% Diniz)

• Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Diniz rapidly improving his MMA grappling awareness fight-to-fight. (+6% Diniz)

• Urgency Index (UI): Pinto starts fast but fades badly when forced to reset. (−6% Pinto)

• Style Inversion Check (SIC): Pinto’s wild entries play straight into Diniz’s counter-kickboxing strengths. (−7% Pinto)

• Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): Pinto’s aggression becomes a liability against composed strikers. (−5% Pinto)

• Recent Rout/Stalled Performance Check (RRSP): Pinto was dominated once his early takedown plan failed last outing. (−6% Pinto)

Volatility and Calibration

• Volatility: 0.49 → moderate; early KO risk but Diniz composure limits chaos.

• Dynamic: Pinto’s only chance is early grappling success; if Diniz defends first 2 minutes, fight tilts sharply his way.

Prediction

Jhonata Diniz 76% – Mário Pinto 24%

Most Probable Outcome: Jhonata Diniz by KO/TKO (Round 1)

Confidence Level

✅ High-confidence official pick.

Meets all calibration rules (≥60%, volatility ≤0.55).

Summary:

• Diniz’s defensive maturity and striking precision align perfectly against Pinto’s reckless forward bursts.

• Pinto’s cardio and striking defense collapse too easily for him to survive prolonged exchanges.

• Unless Diniz is shockingly taken down early and controlled, this is a textbook striker-vs-wild-grappler mismatch favoring the composed kickboxer.

Fighter Profiles

Ricardo Ramos

• Style: Explosive Muay Thai striker with spinning attacks and slick BJJ transitions.

• Strengths: Dynamic, creative offense, fast counters, dangerous back-takes.

• Weaknesses: Inconsistent fight IQ, cardio fade after fast starts, and defense gaps in brawls.

• Status: Experienced but unpredictable veteran entering volatility phase — alternating wins and losses, sometimes mentally checks out under pressure (RRSP risk).

Kaan Ofli

• Style: Pressure boxer-wrestler with solid fundamentals and steady pace.

• Strengths: Durable, compact striking, grinding clinch, good top control.

• Weaknesses: Limited creativity, sub-defense still regional level, susceptible to flying knees or guillotine on entry.

• Status: Young prospect in early UFC development; composure improving but untested against explosive veterans (CUT logic applies).

Key Factors

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Ofli shows steady takedown attempts but not elite chain-wrestling. (+3 % Ofli)

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Ramos’s submission threat from transitions still dangerous. (+6 % Ramos)

• Aging & Damage Curve (ADC): Both in prime, no age penalty.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Ramos chin fine, but defense leaks vs volume. (–3 % Ramos)

• Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Ofli showing learning curve fight-to-fight. (+4 % Ofli)

• Urgency Index (UI): Ramos inconsistent round 3 urgency. (–4 % Ramos)

• Recent Rout / Stalled Performance (RRSP): Ramos’s last bout looked passive under pressure—slight penalty. (–5 % Ramos)

• Style Inversion Check (SIC): Ofli’s straightforward game can be read and countered by Ramos’s unorthodox striking. (+4 % Ramos)

• Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): Ofli’s measured pace not a flaw here (neutral).

Volatility and Calibration

• Volatility: 0.56 → moderate-high. Ramos fights are inherently swingy due to explosiveness and defensive lapses.

• Dynamic: Early danger from Ramos’s spinning offense; if Ofli weathers it and wrestles smart, the momentum flips late.

Prediction

Ricardo Ramos 62 % – Kaan Ofli 38 %

Most Probable Outcome: Ricardo Ramos by Decision

Confidence Level

✅ Meets official-pick threshold (≥ 60 %, volatility ≈ 0.55).

Summary:

• Ramos’s experience, finishing variety, and submission fallback outweigh Ofli’s steadiness.

• However, his defensive lapses and cardio make it less than “high-confidence.”

• Ofli could steal a decision with persistent takedowns, but statistically Ramos’s skill depth gives him a narrow but valid edge.

Fighter Profiles

Lucas Almeida

• Style: Explosive striker with knockout power, aggressive pressure, and high early output.

• Strengths: Sharp boxing combinations, power in both hands, willingness to trade, dangerous early finishing ability.

• Weaknesses: Defensive striking flaws, poor head movement, fades badly after Round 1.

• Status: UFC-level power but unreliable cardio and defensive awareness — volatility archetype (DIC + UI triggered).

Michael Aswell

• Style: Composed, well-rounded pressure grappler with disciplined striking and strong top control.

• Strengths: Cardio, fight IQ, and positional grappling. Excellent recovery and pace consistency.

• Weaknesses: Limited explosiveness; not a one-punch finisher; needs time to impose rhythm.

• Status: Rising prospect with controlled aggression, durable chin, and steady improvements (ABF active).

Key Factors

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Aswell’s chain wrestling and positional control strong. (+8% Aswell)

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Aswell can recover control even when clipped, giving him reliable fallback. (+6% Aswell)

• Aging & Damage Curve (ADC): Both young — no penalty.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Almeida’s chin suspect after multiple knockdowns. (−8% Almeida)

• Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Aswell improving steadily in composure and defensive striking. (+5% Aswell)

• Urgency Index (UI): Almeida fades when takedowns or clinches slow his pace. (−6% Almeida)

• Style Inversion Check (SIC): Aswell’s grinding, methodical pressure perfectly inverts Almeida’s bursty power style. (−7% Almeida)

• Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): Almeida relies entirely on early finishes. (−8% Almeida)

• Recent Rout/Stalled Performance (RRSP): Almeida’s last fight was a complete cardio collapse post-Round 1 — triggers penalty. (−7% Almeida)

Volatility and Calibration

• Volatility: 0.53 → medium; early danger but predictable pattern.

• Dynamic: Almeida’s only win path is a first-round knockout. If Aswell survives first 3 minutes, fight tilts heavily in his favor through control, clinch, and ground pressure.

Prediction

Michael Aswell 74% – Lucas Almeida 26%

Most Probable Outcome: Michael Aswell by Decision

Confidence Level

✅ High-confidence official pick.

Meets all model thresholds (≥60%, volatility ≤0.55).

Summary:

• Almeida’s declining gas tank and defensive holes make him a poor endurance matchup against a composed wrestler like Aswell.

• Aswell’s control-heavy, cardio-based blueprint historically neutralizes explosive but inconsistent strikers.

• Only early chaos (first 2 minutes) threatens Aswell’s path; otherwise, it’s a dominant control or late-round ground-and-pound scenario.