UFC Fight Night: Lewis v. Teixeira

Derrick Lewis is a UFC veteran known for his devastating one-shot knockout power, particularly in the later rounds. He’s a counter-striker who often lulls opponents into a false sense of security before exploding with fight-ending shots. However, he is notoriously low-volume, relies heavily on timing, and struggles against high-paced grapplers or fighters with good cardio and pressure.

Tallison Teixeira is a UFC newcomer with regional experience. He’s aggressive, carries solid power, and often looks for a quick finish—but his level of competition has been questionable. His composure under pressure and durability at UFC level are still unknowns. He has early-round finishing potential but may fade if dragged into deep waters.

Key Factors Considered

• KO Threat: Both have it, but Lewis has proven UFC-level KO power. Teixeira’s is strong but unproven at this level.

• Durability: Lewis is in decline and has been finished more frequently lately. Teixeira hasn’t been cracked by a true power puncher yet.

• Cardio: Lewis fades when pushed; Teixeira is untested past early rounds.

• Experience & Fight IQ: Strong edge to Lewis, though his predictability and low output reduce the gap.

• Stylistic Matchup: Teixeira’s aggressive, high-paced style is a historically tough matchup for Lewis, who struggles under swarm pressure.

• Newcomer Risk: First UFC fight for Teixeira — crowd, lights, adrenaline dump are all factors.

• Volatility Index: High. Either man could be unconscious within 2 minutes.

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson

• Style & Strengths: Elite karate-based striker with excellent footwork, distance management, and timing. Very hard to hit cleanly when given space. Prefers a point-fighting style, excels against other strikers.

• Concerns: Now 41, with signs of physical decline (slower reactions, less explosive counters). Struggles against high-paced pressure fighters and strong grapplers. Recent loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov showed submission vulnerability when trapped.

• Cardio: Still decent, but explosive scrambling and clinch defense have noticeably faded with age.

• Mental State: Focused, experienced, and calm, but likely reaching the end of his run.

Gabriel Bonfim

• Style & Strengths: Aggressive submission specialist with lightning-fast front chokes and back takes. Strong first-round threat. Mixes pressure striking with takedown entries and thrives in chaos.

• Concerns: His striking is functional but unpolished. Was brutally KO’d by Nicolas Dalby, showing that his durability and defensive striking may be flawed. That loss was a major red flag about his composure when the fight doesn’t go his way.

• Cardio: Questionable past Round 1–2. Has a “kill or be killed” approach and may gas if forced to fight a patient technical match.

• Mental State: Young and dangerous, but coming off a humbling loss. Bounce-back mentality unclear.

Key Model Factors Applied

• ✅ Aging Striker Penalty: Wonderboy’s speed, reflexes, and defensive reactions are declining — especially against aggressive youth.

• ✅ Grappler Finish Threat: Bonfim has one of the best submission rates in the division. Fighters with similar skill sets have given Thompson major problems.

• ✅ Durability Watch: Both men have durability concerns — Wonderboy due to age, Bonfim due to defensive flaws.

• ❌ Pressure & Chaos Advantage: Bonfim’s style has historically been a problem for counter-strikers who need rhythm and space.

• ❗️Composure Under Adversity: Bonfim’s loss to Dalby showed he can mentally break when Plan A fails. If Thompson survives the first 5 minutes, the fight swings drastically.

• ✅ Scramble Efficiency: Thompson’s ability to escape submissions and return to feet is diminished compared to 5 years ago.

• ⚠️ Volatility Index: High — Bonfim is a fast starter, and Thompson may be able to counter him clean or survive and take over late.

Probability Estimate

Gabriel Bonfim 55% – Stephen Thompson 45%

Most Probable Outcome: Bonfim by Submission (Round 1)

Summary

If Bonfim gets an early takedown or clinch, Thompson may be in trouble — his ability to fight off chokes and scrambles has declined. However, if Thompson survives the initial storm and keeps it standing, he could pick Bonfim apart late with superior striking and experience.

The model gives a moderate lean toward Bonfim, due to submission threat and stylistic pressure — but it flags this fight as high variance due to Bonfim’s mental fragility and Thompson’s experience edge.

Calvin Kattar

• Style & Strengths: Elite boxer with sharp technique, excellent timing, and strong chin. Known for durability, volume, and poise. Uses a stiff jab and counter right hands. His experience against top-tier competition is unmatched.

• Concerns: Coming off a serious knee injury (torn ACL) and a long layoff. Prior to that, he took a lot of damage in wars with Holloway, Emmett, and Allen. Aging and wear-and-tear are factors.

• Cardio: Historically strong, though unknown post-injury.

• Mental State: Extremely composed, veteran mindset, rarely makes bad decisions in the cage.

Steve Garcia

• Style & Strengths: Wild, aggressive pressure fighter. Marches forward and throws bombs, often overwhelming opponents early. Strong finishing instinct with KO power and chaos-friendly style.

• Concerns: Defensively porous. Leaves openings during exchanges and often wins on raw aggression over technique. Vulnerable to counters.

• Cardio: Can fade if dragged into deep water. Best work happens early.

• Mental State: Confident and hungry, but has never fought someone as technically clean or experienced as Kattar.

Key Model Factors Applied

• ✅ Experience Gap: Strongly favors Kattar. He’s fought elite strikers and survived wars. Garcia hasn’t faced anyone near that level.

• ❗️Injury Return Flag: Kattar is returning from a major ACL tear. First fight back often shows reduced mobility, tentative movement.

• ✅ Boxing vs. Chaos: Garcia’s chaotic brawling opens him to crisp counters, which Kattar specializes in. Stylistic mismatch favors Calvin technically.

• ✅ Durability: Kattar has absorbed high-volume attacks and stayed composed. Garcia is easier to hit and less proven defensively.

• ⚠️ Fast Start Risk: If Garcia overwhelms Kattar early while he’s still shaking off rust, there’s upset potential.

• ✅ Judging Edge: Kattar’s jab and clean technique score better over time, especially if he slows the tempo and controls range.

Probability Estimate

Calvin Kattar 67% – Steve Garcia 33%

Most Probable Outcome: Kattar by Decision

Summary

Kattar is the vastly more technical, experienced, and composed striker. Garcia brings early chaos and finishing danger, but his defense is wide open, and his success depends on swarming opponents who panic — which Kattar won’t do.

If Kattar is even 80% of his old self post-injury, he should weather the early storm and take over with clean boxing. But due to ACL recovery and long layoff, the model flags early-round volatility. Still, the data strongly supports Kattar as the likely winner in a methodical, attrition-based performance.

Nate Landwehr

• Style & Strengths: Pure chaos. Applies suffocating pressure, walks through damage, and breaks opponents with volume, aggression, and pace. He’s one of the most durable fighters in the division and thrives in wars.

• Cardio: Excellent. Keeps a high output and doesn’t slow down.

• Concerns: Very hittable. Leans heavily on toughness. Against accurate counter-strikers, he can be picked apart if they stay composed.

• Mental State: Wild, fearless, thrives in adversity. Fight IQ is sometimes reckless, but mentally unbreakable.

Morgan Charrière

• Style & Strengths: Clean, technical striker with strong body work, solid counters, and good shot selection. Moves well and stays composed when not crowded. Likes to control tempo and range.

• Cardio: Decent, but his output drops significantly under sustained pressure.

• Concerns: Susceptible to being walked down. In past fights (especially pre-UFC), struggled when opponents wouldn’t let him breathe. Still unproven against UFC-level pressure.

• Mental State: Calm and calculated, but sometimes lacks urgency. If hurt or overwhelmed, doesn’t always fire back with enough volume.

Key Model Factors Applied

• ✅ Pressure Threat: Landwehr has a stylistic edge against fighters like Charrière, who prefer space and rhythm.

• ❌ Damage Taken: Landwehr has absorbed a ton of punishment in recent fights. While durable, this long-term damage accumulation is factored in.

• ✅ Volume and Pace Advantage: Strongly favors Landwehr. He fights at a much higher pace and can steal rounds even when getting outstruck.

• ⚠️ Striking Efficiency: Charrière is more accurate and technically cleaner, but throws far less volume.

• ✅ Cardio Gap Under Pressure: Charrière has slowed in past fights when pressured — flagged in model as a key vulnerability.

• ✅ Mental Toughness Edge: Landwehr can push through adversity better; Charrière is more likely to shell up if things go south.

Probability Estimate

Nate Landwehr 61% – Morgan Charrière 39%

Most Probable Outcome: Landwehr by Decision

Summary

Landwehr’s relentless pace, cardio, and chaotic pressure are the perfect tools to dismantle a lower-output striker like Charrière — especially over 3 rounds. Unless Charrière lands a clean KO or severely hurts Nate early (difficult given Nate’s durability), the fight trends toward Landwehr overwhelming him on volume and aggression.

Charrière’s best path is a clean, efficient striking performance from range — but Landwehr doesn’t give opponents that luxury. The model leans toward Landwehr breaking Charrière’s structure and taking a wild, crowd-pleasing decision.

Vitor Petrino

• Style & Strengths: Physically explosive, strong pressure striker with knockout power. Prefers to blitz opponents and back them up with raw aggression. Also has developing wrestling and top control. Still evolving and tends to improve fight-to-fight.

• Cardio: Decent for a power-puncher; has gone 3 hard rounds before.

• Concerns: Can get wild and inefficient when going for the finish. Defensively flawed if extended, but usually overwhelms opponents before that matters.

• Mental State: Confident, focused, and clearly being groomed as a future contender.

Dequan Lane

• Style & Strengths: Explosive, fast-twitch KO artist with finishing ability early in fights. Most wins have come in the first round. He’s a brawler who throws heat, but is extremely raw technically.

• Cardio: Very poor. Fades quickly when not able to finish fast.

• Concerns: Extremely low-level competition. Struggled against mediocre opponents. No clear defensive grappling. Takes big risks and leaves himself open.

• Mental State: Confident but untested at UFC level. Known to fold under pressure. Durability is questionable — finished multiple times on the regional scene.

Key Model Factors Applied

• ✅ Level of Competition Gap: Massive. Petrino has beaten solid UFC opposition. Lane has fought very low-tier fighters.

• ✅ Durability Flag: Lane has been finished several times on the regional scene — huge red flag against a heavy-handed UFC-level striker.

• ✅ Pressure & Finishing Edge: Petrino thrives early and doesn’t let opponents settle — exactly what you want against someone like Lane who needs a calm environment to strike.

• ✅ Grappling Path if Needed: Petrino has wrestling to fall back on if needed. Lane has no credible defensive grappling record.

• ❌ Short-Notice Chaos Factor: Always carries variance. Unknowns with a debuting fighter bring some volatility.

• ✅ Finish Rate vs. Real Resistance: Petrino has finished durable opponents. Lane has finished only low-resistance targets.

• ⚠️ Volatility Index: Moderate-High — any LHW fight between power strikers carries KO risk, but Lane’s flaws push this toward one-way traffic.

Probability Estimate

Vitor Petrino 81% – Dequan Lane 19%

Most Probable Outcome: Petrino by KO/TKO (Round 1)

Summary

This is a heavy mismatch on paper. Petrino is a young, athletic, improving power striker who has fought and beaten real competition. Lane is a brawler with fast hands and early KO wins against weak opposition — but he has durability issues, cardio concerns, and no defensive depth.

Unless Petrino makes a massive mistake early, he should overwhelm Lane quickly. The model gives Petrino a dominant probability with very high finish potential in Round 1. The only path for Lane is a clean early KO, but against someone as composed and aggressive as Petrino, that path is extremely narrow.

Junior Tafa

• Style & Strengths: High-level kickboxer with dangerous power and fluid hands. Strong in pocket exchanges and punishes low-level strikers. Has a vicious lead hook and sharp counter striking. Known for early KOs.

• Concerns: Takedown defense is a major hole. He’s been taken down easily and controlled on the ground. Grappling cardio is poor, and once grounded, offers little resistance.

• Cardio: Decent in striking-based fights, but falls apart when forced to wrestle.

• Mental State: Confident, aggressive, but likely aware of his grappling limitations now.

Tuco Tokkos

• Style & Strengths: Grappling-heavy fighter with solid top control and submission hunting. Often shoots early, aims to smother and wear opponents down. Physically strong and opportunistic on the ground.

• Concerns: Extremely low-level striking. Has been KO’d by regional-level opponents. Tends to freeze when hit clean. Footwork is plodding. UFC debut on short notice adds additional risk.

• Cardio: Decent in grindy fights but can gas if forced to strike or if takedowns are stuffed.

• Mental State: Hungry, but unknown under UFC lights. Has a history of folding when Plan A fails.

Key Model Factors Applied

• ✅ Stylistic Mismatch Potential: Tokkos has a path if he can get quick takedowns — Tafa is extremely vulnerable on the ground.

• ❌ Durability Risk: Tokkos has been KO’d by far lesser strikers than Tafa. That’s a massive red flag.

• ✅ KO Power vs. Defensive Gaps: Tafa’s speed and power should shred Tokkos if he can keep it standing.

• ❗️Debut Chaos Factor: Tokkos on short notice increases volatility. But also likely means less prep time for wrestling entries.

• ✅ Fight IQ/Discipline Watch: Tafa has shown improved patience in recent bouts — if he waits and punishes sloppy entries, this could be clinical.

• ✅ Finish Rate vs. Real Resistance: Tafa has KO’d more durable fighters than Tokkos has beaten.

Probability Estimate

Junior Tafa 70% – Tuco Tokkos 30%

Most Probable Outcome: Tafa by KO/TKO (Round 1)

Summary

Tuco Tokkos has one path: immediate takedown and top control. But the model gives that path low reliability — his wrestling entries are slow, and his striking defense is poor. Against a fast, explosive kickboxer like Tafa, that’s dangerous.

Tafa’s defensive wrestling is a liability, but Tokkos may not have the physical tools or level of opponent experience to exploit it cleanly. Unless Tafa gets taken down early and controlled, he likely finds the chin in the first round. The model leans strongly toward Tafa by early KO, with the caveat of high volatility if taken down and smothered.