UFC Fight Night Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM EDT

Disclaimer:

The information presented here is strictly for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to place any wagers. All insights and predictions are based on data analysis and do not guarantee any outcomes. Please gamble responsibly and consult a professional advisor if you need financial guidance.

Main Card
Preliminary Card
Early Prelims

Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight)

Prediction: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO or decision

Probability: Kevin Vallejos 64% - Josh Emmett 36%

Underdog: Josh Emmett

Josh Emmett

Record: 19-6-0

Age: 41

Kevin Vallejos

Record: 17-1-0

Age: 24

Key Factors

1. Aging Curve vs Youth Momentum (ACA + SDPR)

Emmett is now deep into the late-career phase where speed, reaction time, and durability typically decline. Vallejos brings the younger, faster profile that historically performs well against aging power punchers.

2. Speed Differential

Vallejos throws faster combinations and maintains a higher pace. Emmett relies heavily on single explosive counters, which becomes harder when facing faster opponents.

3. Power Still Matters (Early KO Volatility)

Despite the decline factors, Emmett still carries genuine knockout power. Vallejos’ aggressive entries create a real early counter risk, especially in Round 1.

4. Damage vs Volume Judging Bias (IVJB)

If the fight reaches the scorecards, Vallejos’ pressure and volume could win rounds unless Emmett lands a visible power moment.

5. Chaos vs Durability (CPC)

Both fighters are comfortable in striking chaos. When chaos appears, durability and counter timing become decisive. Emmett historically excels here, which keeps his upset probability meaningful.

Volatility Assessment

Moderate-High volatility. Emmett’s knockout power means the fight can swing suddenly despite the youth advantage for Vallejos.

Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson (Strawweight)

Prediction: Gillian Robertson by submission or decision

Probability: Gillian Robertson 58% - Amanda Lemos 42%

Underdog: Gillian Robertson

Amanda Lemos

Record: 15-5-1

Age: 39

Gillian Robertson

Record: 16-8-0

Age: 31

Key Factors

1. Grappling Control Path (WPC + GFW)

Robertson’s strongest path is sustained grappling pressure. Lemos has historically struggled when forced onto her back or controlled against the cage, making Robertson’s takedown persistence a major factor.

2. Women’s Control Optics (CDW+)

Judges often reward sustained control and positional dominance. If Robertson secures multiple takedowns and top control, that scoring dynamic strongly favors her over Lemos’ burst striking.

3. Entry Validation Risk (EVG)

Robertson’s success depends heavily on whether she can secure early takedowns safely. Lemos carries real knockout power early, which creates entry risk if Robertson shoots from open distance.

4. Cardio and Pace Differential

Robertson typically maintains a grinding pace over three rounds, while Lemos has shown signs of slowing when forced into extended grappling exchanges.

5. Women’s Control Validation Hard Gate (WCVHG)

Robertson historically has strong takedown success and sustained top control against comparable opponents, meaning the model allows her control-based path to remain viable rather than downgrading it.

Volatility Assessment

Moderate volatility. Lemos’ early knockout power keeps the fight dangerous for Robertson in Round 1, but if the fight reaches grappling exchanges, Robertson’s probability increases significantly.

Ion Cuțelaba vs Oumar Sy (Light heavyweight)

Prediction: Oumar Sy by submission or decision

Probability: Oumar Sy 62% - Ion Cuțelaba 38%

Underdog: Ion Cuțelaba

AI Generated picture of a person who could be similar to Ion Cuțelaba

Ion Cuțelaba

Record: 19-11-1, 1NC

Age: 32

Oumar Sy

Record: 12-1-0

Age: 30

Key Factors

1. Chaos vs Composure (CUT + CPC)

Cuțelaba’s chaotic aggression creates early danger but also opens defensive gaps. Sy has shown calmer decision-making and structured offense, which historically performs well against reckless brawlers.

2. Grappling Advantage (WPC + GFW)

Sy has a meaningful grappling edge. Cuțelaba has been submitted multiple times and has shown vulnerability when fights transition into sustained grappling exchanges.

3. Durability Integrity Check (DIC)

Cuțelaba has accumulated significant damage in recent fights and tends to absorb clean shots when charging forward. This raises risk against a younger, athletic opponent.

4. Early Chaos Volatility (CTM interaction)

The first round remains the most dangerous window for Sy. Cuțelaba’s blitz style and knockout power create significant early volatility before Sy can settle into grappling exchanges.

5. Physical Range Advantage (RCE)

Sy’s height and reach advantage should allow him to manage distance better and reduce Cuțelaba’s ability to land clean power shots.

Volatility Assessment

Moderate-high volatility due to Cuțelaba’s early knockout threat. If Sy survives the first round and initiates grappling exchanges, the fight likely shifts strongly in his favor.

Andre Fili vs Jose Delgado (Featherweight)

Prediction: Jose Delgado by KO/TKO or decision

Probability: Jose Delgado 61% – Andre Fili 39%

Underdog: Andre Fili

Andre Fili

Record: 25-12-0, 1NC

Age: 36

Jose Delgado

Record: 10-2-0

Age: 28

Key Factors

1. Physicality & Explosiveness Advantage (PPA)

Delgado brings the younger, faster, and more explosive profile. In same-division matchups, the model now heavily weighs physicality when a veteran technician faces an athletic pressure fighter.

2. Passive Veteran Trap Risk (PVTR)

Fili sometimes fights in a low-urgency rhythm, allowing opponents to win rounds through pressure and activity. Against a forward-moving striker, that dynamic can cost him rounds on the scorecards.

3. Early Chaos Threat (CTM)

Delgado’s aggressive style increases early knockout volatility, especially if Fili starts cautiously as he often does.

4. Veteran Experience & Durability (CGR + VTO)

Fili has faced significantly stronger competition and usually survives early storms. His composure and defensive awareness prevent the model from pushing Delgado’s probability too far.

5. Grappling Neutralization Possibility

If Fili mixes in clinch work and opportunistic takedowns, he could slow Delgado’s pace and turn the fight into a tactical decision fight.

Volatility Assessment

Moderate volatility. Delgado’s early aggression creates knockout risk, but Fili’s durability and experience give him a realistic path to drag the fight into a competitive decision.

Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick (Featherweight)

Prediction: Harry Hardwick by decision

Probability: Harry Hardwick 63% – Marwan Rahiki 37%

Underdog: Harry Hardwick

Marwan Rahiki

Record: 8-0-0

Age: 24

Harry Hardwick

Record: 13-4-1

Age: 30

Key Factors

1. Composure vs Pressure (CPC + GDB)

Hardwick tends to fight in a composed, structured manner while Rahiki relies more on physical pressure. When pressure fighters face disciplined technicians who maintain distance and pace, the technician often wins rounds through cleaner scoring.

2. Striking Efficiency Advantage

Hardwick generally throws cleaner combinations and higher volume, which aligns with modern judging trends favoring visible effective striking when grappling control is limited.

3. Pressure Must Trap Rule (PMTR)

Rahiki’s pressure only becomes effective if he can cut the cage and secure clinch control. If his pressure becomes linear forward movement, Hardwick’s footwork and counterboxing could neutralize it.

4. Control vs Damage Judging Bias (CDW)

If Rahiki secures meaningful top control, that could swing rounds, but historically his grappling tends to be control-oriented rather than highly damaging, which limits scoring advantage unless sustained.

5. Cardio Sustainability (CSI)

Hardwick has shown the ability to maintain pace across three rounds, whereas pressure-based fighters who rely heavily on physical grappling can slow if takedowns become difficult.

Volatility Assessment

Moderate volatility. Rahiki’s grappling pressure creates a potential control path, but if Hardwick defends takedowns early the fight likely shifts toward a striking-based decision.

Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund (Heavyweight)

Prediction: Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO

Probability: Vitor Petrino 74% – Steven Asplund 26%

Underdog: Steven Asplund

Vitor Petrino

Record: 13-2-0

Age: 28

Steven Asplund

Record: 7-1-0

Age: 27

Key Factors

1. Competition Level Gap (CGR + PRRF)

Petrino has already competed against UFC-level opponents, while Asplund’s record largely comes from regional competition. The Prospect Record Reliability Filter (PRRF) prevents the model from overvaluing regional finishes.

2. Physicality Advantage (WCPS + PPA)

At light heavyweight, strength, explosiveness, and durability differentials matter more. Petrino holds a clear advantage in athleticism and physical power.

3. Power and Finishing Threat

Petrino carries legitimate knockout power and tends to overwhelm opponents when he establishes offensive momentum.

4. Defensive Unknowns for Asplund (DCF)

There is limited reliable data regarding Asplund’s takedown defense, durability against elite power, and cardio under high pressure, which increases uncertainty but does not eliminate Petrino’s advantage.

5. Early Fight Control

If Petrino mixes his striking with clinch or takedown pressure, the fight could become very difficult for Asplund quickly due to the strength differential.

Volatility Assessment

Moderate volatility due to incomplete data on Asplund, but Petrino’s athletic and competition-level advantages make him a clear favorite.