UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho | Fight Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Disclaimer:
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Main Card
Preliminary Card
Early Prelims
Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho (Middleweight)
Nassourdine Imavov – A sharp, composed striker who mixes in measured volume with clean countering. He has good range management, solid cardio, and shows patience under fire. A UFC veteran now entering his prime, he thrives when he can dictate range and pace, though he has shown issues when forced into prolonged grappling exchanges against strong control wrestlers.
Caio Borralho – A pressure-based southpaw with a strong grappling base and excellent top control. He is disciplined, prioritizes positional dominance, and can grind opponents out with cage work and mat returns. On the feet he has a cautious but tricky left hand, though he is less fluid in striking transitions compared to Imavov. Borralho tends to slow his output in high-paced striking fights but shines when able to bring it into his grappling realm.
Key Factors
Experience against similar styles: Imavov has fought and beaten technical strikers, but his grappling defense has been tested (e.g., against Curtis). Borralho has largely faced strikers with weaker takedown defense and hasn’t yet faced someone with Imavov’s balance of composure and countering ability.
Cardio and pace: Both fighters are durable and carry cardio well, but Borralho’s style can look inefficient if he struggles to secure clean control. Imavov generally maintains steadier output at range.
Finishing threat: Imavov’s sharp boxing and timing can break down opponents over rounds, though he is not a one-punch knockout artist at this level. Borralho’s submissions are dangerous, but primarily when he establishes sustained top control.
Durability and recent form: Both are durable with no major signs of decline. Imavov has rebounded well after setbacks, while Borralho remains undefeated in the UFC, though against less proven competition.
Stylistic clash: This fight likely comes down to Borralho’s ability to repeatedly secure takedowns vs. Imavov’s takedown defense, distance control, and counter striking. If Borralho stalls out on entries, Imavov should have the cleaner and more effective minutes.
Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight)
Prediction: Saint-Denis by TKO (Round 2, ground-and-pound)
Benoît Saint-Denis – A relentless pressure fighter and finisher. He pushes a high pace with aggressive striking to close distance and then chains into powerful wrestling and suffocating top control. Known for his toughness and durability, he absorbs damage to impose his will. Cardio is one of his biggest weapons, breaking opponents who can’t match his intensity.
Mauricio Ruffy – A dangerous striker with explosive offense, sharp boxing combinations, and finishing instincts. He thrives in chaotic exchanges and can put opponents away early. His defensive grappling and ability to fight at a grueling pace for three rounds are less tested, especially at UFC level against someone as relentless as Saint-Denis.
Key Factors
Experience against similar styles: Saint-Denis has already fought proven strikers (e.g., Moicano, Bonfim, dos Santos) and shown both vulnerability and resilience. Ruffy has not yet faced a pressure grappler/wrestler with UFC-caliber cardio and durability.
Cardio and pace: Saint-Denis has a clear edge. If the fight goes past the first round, Ruffy’s explosiveness is likely to fade while Saint-Denis keeps pushing forward.
Finishing threat: Ruffy is live for an early knockout given Saint-Denis’ willingness to eat shots while closing distance. Conversely, if Saint-Denis survives the initial storm, his takedowns and ground-and-pound could overwhelm Ruffy.
Durability and recent form: Saint-Denis is very durable but coming off tough wars, which raises the question of accumulated damage. Ruffy is explosive but unproven in deep waters.
Stylistic clash: Classic “early KO striker vs relentless pressure grappler.” The volatility is high—Ruffy can absolutely win by early KO, but the longer it goes, the more it swings to Saint-Denis.
Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig (Light heavyweight)
Prediction: Bukauskas by Decision
Probability: Modestas Bukauskas 58% – Paul Craig 42%
Underdog: Paul Craig
Modestas Bukauskas
Record: 18-6-0
Age: 31
Paul Craig
Record: 17-9-1, 1NC
Age: 37
Fighter Descriptions
Modestas Bukauskas – A rangy striker with good kicking game, solid movement, and improving composure in extended fights. He prefers to work at distance, using kicks to manage range and set up his right hand. Durability and defensive grappling have been tested, but he has shown resilience and sharper fight IQ since returning to the UFC.
Paul Craig – A veteran submission specialist with a reputation as one of the most dangerous grapplers at light heavyweight and middleweight. His striking is awkward and often leaves defensive openings, but his persistence and ability to snatch submissions from scrambles or guard make him a constant threat. He can struggle against opponents who avoid grappling exchanges and keep the fight standing.
Key Factors
Experience against similar styles: Bukauskas has struggled against strong grapplers in the past, though usually with more control-heavy wrestlers rather than opportunistic guard specialists. Craig has repeatedly pulled off submissions against strikers who overextend.
Cardio and pace: Both have shown inconsistency, but Bukauskas generally maintains steadier output at range. Craig often slows if his grappling entries fail.
Finishing threat: Craig is always live for a submission, especially early. Bukauskas is the cleaner striker and more likely to win minutes on the feet.
Durability and recent form: Bukauskas has looked sharper since returning, including improved defense and patience. Craig’s chin has shown cracks, and his reliance on pulling guard or creating scrambles is higher risk as he ages.
Stylistic clash: A classic “striker vs submission artist.” If Bukauskas keeps it standing, he should steadily rack up damage and possibly finish Craig late. If he gets drawn into prolonged grappling, Craig has the clear edge.
Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones (Lightweight)
Prediction: Jones by Decision
Probability: Mason Jones 63% – Bolaji Oki 37%
Underdog: Mason Jones
Bolaji Oki
Record: 10-2-0
Age: 29
Mason Jones
Record: 16-2-0, 1NC
Age: 30
Fighter Descriptions
Bolaji Oki – A powerful striker with fast hands and a knack for explosive pocket exchanges. He’s aggressive early, hunting knockouts, and brings physicality to the lightweight division. However, his cardio has shown signs of fading when opponents drag him into longer fights, and his defensive grappling remains somewhat untested at UFC level.
Mason Jones – A durable UFC veteran with a pressure-heavy style, high-volume boxing, and solid wrestling/grappling tools. He thrives in wars of attrition, using relentless output and durability to wear opponents down. Jones has shown toughness and cardio as major weapons, though he can be hit clean due to his willingness to engage.
Key Factors
Experience against similar styles: Jones has faced UFC-level strikers and pressure fighters before, proving he can absorb damage and continue pushing. Oki’s record includes explosive finishes, but not yet the kind of drawn-out, gritty war Jones brings.
Cardio and pace: Clear edge for Jones. If this goes past the first round, Oki’s explosiveness likely tapers, while Jones keeps building momentum.
Finishing threat: Oki has more one-shot KO power, especially early. Jones relies more on accumulation, attrition, and wearing opponents out.
Durability and recent form: Jones is battle-tested and hard to put away. Oki is less proven against opponents who won’t fold quickly.
Stylistic clash: This matchup leans toward a battle of early KO danger (Oki) vs. sustained pace and pressure (Jones). The more it extends, the more it favors Jones.
Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee (Welterweight)
Prediction: Sola by Decision
Probability: Axel Sola 62% – Rhys McKee 38%
Underdog: Rhys McKee
Axel Sola
Record: 10-0-1
Age: 27
Rhys McKee
Record: 14-6-1
Age: 30
Fighter Descriptions
Axel Sola – A well-rounded French prospect with a strong grappling base, good transitions, and developing striking. He’s comfortable mixing takedowns with pressure striking and has shown improving cardio. Still relatively inexperienced at UFC level, but composed for his age and steadily climbing in skill.
Rhys McKee – A tall, rangy striker who relies on volume, length, and durability. He throws long combinations, works behind straight punches and kicks, and has a gritty style. His defensive grappling has historically been a weakness, and he struggles against strong wrestlers or clinch pressure fighters who can crowd his range.
Key Factors
Experience against similar styles: McKee has faced pressure grapplers in the UFC (e.g., Chimaev, Morono) and often struggled when taken out of his comfort zone. Sola’s grappling style is well-suited to exploit that.
Cardio and pace: Sola appears steady but still needs to prove it over full UFC-level fights. McKee has reliable volume and endurance, but his pace dips once forced to defend takedowns.
Finishing threat: Sola’s most likely path is control and submission setups. McKee can hurt Sola with long-range striking if he keeps it standing.
Durability and recent form: McKee is durable but hittable, and his grappling defense hasn’t noticeably improved. Sola is young and less proven, but not showing durability concerns yet.
Stylistic clash: Grappler vs striker dynamic. If Sola consistently gets the fight to the ground, he should control it. If McKee keeps it standing, his length and volume could outpoint Sola
Patrício Pitbull – A battle-tested legend with championship pedigree, explosive counterstriking, and underrated grappling. He’s compact, powerful, and carries fight-ending ability in both hands. Pitbull is very experienced in five-round wars, but at 37, his speed and durability have begun to decline. Still, his composure, fight IQ, and finishing instincts remain elite.
Losene Keita – A surging prospect known for his explosive striking, athleticism, and aggressive forward pressure. He has knockout power, mixes in kicks effectively, and thrives in chaotic exchanges. His grappling is serviceable but not yet proven against elite opponents. Keita’s biggest strengths are youth, speed, and fearlessness, but he lacks the high-level championship experience of Pitbull.
Key Factors
Experience against similar styles: Pitbull has fought—and beaten—many explosive younger strikers. But he has also struggled recently with faster opponents who keep a high pace. Keita hasn’t faced anyone with Pitbull’s mix of durability, fight IQ, and veteran tricks.
Cardio and pace: Pitbull can manage five rounds, but his pace is slower now. Keita pushes higher tempo early, though his gas tank past round 3 is still a question mark.
Finishing threat: Both men carry serious knockout power. Pitbull with his compact counters, Keita with explosive forward combinations. Keita is more likely to overwhelm early, Pitbull more likely to capitalize on mistakes.
Durability and recent form: Pitbull has shown signs of wear (slower reflexes, more hittable), while Keita is fresh, athletic, and unscarred.
Stylistic clash: The fight is essentially youth vs. experience. Keita’s pressure and explosiveness are dangerous against an aging Pitbull. But Pitbull’s composure and counterpunching could turn Keita’s aggression against him.