UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

Key Factors

Merab Advantages

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI) and relentless pacing strongly favor him in a 5-rounder.

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Merab’s chain wrestling remains one of the most reliable in the division.

• Late-Round Surge Bonus (LRSB): Merab’s pressure doesn’t fade; he often raises output in rounds 3–5.

• Range Control Awareness (RCA) favors Merab because Yan tends to start slow when opponents smother him early.

• Urgency Index (UI): Yan often gives away round 1—dangerous vs a minute-winning machine like Merab.

Yan Advantages

• Veteran Strategy Bonus – Yan’s fight IQ and adjustments in rounds 3–5 are elite.

• Counter Efficiency Bonus (CEB) – Yan’s accuracy and counter timing can punish sloppy entries.

• Striking Defense Integrity (SDI) is still solid despite recent losses; he rarely absorbs damage cleanly.

• Top-tier TDD - historically 90%+ vs non-elite wrestlers; however Merab is not a normal wrestler.

Concerns & Red Flags

• Petr Yan’s Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT): His volume has noticeably dropped in his last 3 fights.

• Merab’s predictable entries (PEP) could expose him to counters early, but his durability + pace reduces that risk over time.

• Physicality & Pressure Adjustment (PPA): Merab is the more physical, explosive grappler here, which narrows Yan’s window to counter.

Volatility Rating

Moderate (0.56) - Within “lean but acceptable” range.

Merab wins most decision paths; Yan’s main win condition is a late momentum shift or counter-based KO.

Key Factors

Pantoja Advantages

• Elite Scrambler Factor: immense advantage in chaotic grappling exchanges.

• Veteran Strategy Bonus: championship composure, proven 5-round IQ, and elite adjustments.

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): heavy advantage due to submission threat in all rounds.

• Pace & Pressure: Pantoja pushes a high tempo that tests young fighters’ discipline and cardio.

• Experience vs Similar Archetypes: He’s faced numerous explosive flyweights and consistently wins the scrambles.

Van Advantages

• Aggression Reliability Bonus (ARB): he stays composed under fire and counters well.

• Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): Van has shown clear improvements fight to fight.

• Power and Physicality Adjustment (PPA): surprisingly strong for 125 lbs, especially early.

• Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM): Van has real early-round danger, particularly with his hands.

Concerns & Red Flags

• Adversity Response Coefficient (ARC): Van has not yet faced elite-level pressure or championship pacing.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Not a penalty, but untested at elite level—Pantoja has faced far more dangerous hitters.

• Composure Disruption Sensitivity (CDS): Pantoja’s pace can overwhelm developing strikers early.

• Top-Control Fragility Check: Van’s defensive wrestling is improving but not ready for Pantoja’s backpacking ability.

Volatility Rating

Moderate (0.54) — acceptable for an official pick.

Van is live early, but the deeper the fight goes, the more it shifts toward Pantoja.

Key Factors

Taira Advantages

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): huge edge in controlled grappling, especially from back control.

• Elite Scrambler Factor: Moreno scrambles well, but Taira’s positional control is more efficient and calmer.

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): Taira’s length, leverage, and top control create real problems for smaller strikers.

• Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): dramatic improvement in recent fights (accuracy, composure, setups).

• Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP) for Moreno: Moreno’s long combinations often expose him to level changes.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Moreno has taken significant damage in his last 4 fights—slight but real decline indicators.

Moreno Advantages

• Veteran Strategy Bonus: championship miles, strong adjustments mid-fight.

• Late-Round Surge Bonus (LRSB): Moreno is dangerous in rounds 3–5 if the fight stays standing.

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): very strong, though slightly regressed vs his peak.

• Experience Against Similar Styles: fought elite grapplers (Pantoja, Figueiredo, Royval, etc.).

Concerns & Red Flags

• Aging Curve (Flyweight specific): reaction time and scramble freshness drop faster at 125 lbs; signs of this in Moreno’s last two fights.

• Striking Defense Integrity (SDI): Moreno absorbs more than 40% of significant strikes recently—penalty applied.

• Composure Disruption Sensitivity (CDS): Taira’s slow, suffocating grappling disrupts rhythm-based boxers.

• Top-Control Fragility Check: Moreno gives up back positions too easily vs elite backpackers.

Volatility Rating

Moderate-High (0.60) — enough to avoid overconfidence but still within decision range.

Moreno is a live underdog in late rounds, but Taira has more consistent pathways.

Key Factors

Talbott Advantages

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): major edge in size, length, youth, explosiveness, and speed.

• Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA): heavy penalty on Cejudo—wrestlers 37–38+ with reduced pace struggle vs rangy explosive strikers.

• Striking Defense Integrity (SDI): Talbott absorbs fewer clean shots and maintains better reactions.

• Range Control Efficiency (RCE): Talbott’s length + footwork force Cejudo to blitz or shoot from far out—high PCR risk.

• Predictive Counterstrike Risk (PCR): Cejudo shooting from too far becomes a target for knees/kicks.

• Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): Talbott is improving fight-to-fight—recent defensive grappling jump is real.

• Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM): Talbott creates chaos that aging fighters struggle with.

Cejudo Advantages

• Veteran Strategy Bonus: elite IQ, strong corner coaching, and world-class adjustments.

• Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): still a threat if he can close the distance early.

• Grappling Fallback: significant technical advantage if the fight occurs in tight spaces.

• Late-Round Experience: Cejudo performs well in tight rounds historically.

Concerns & Red Flags

• Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT): Cejudo’s output has dropped 20%+ since his championship prime.

• Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): no longer maintains elite scrambling intensity into rounds 3–5.

• Volatility from Age + Style Clash: explosive young striker vs aging wrestler is historically a high-risk pairing.

• Top-Control Fragility Check: Talbott’s scrambling and length make riding time difficult.

Volatility Rating

Moderate-High (0.61) — Talbott’s youth/physicality vs Cejudo’s IQ creates uncertainty, but Talbott still has clearer round-winning paths.

Key Factors

Guskov Advantages

• Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA): massive advantage in speed, explosiveness, and raw knockout threat.

• Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM): Guskov is one of the highest-round-1 finish threats at LHW.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Jan’s durability has visibly declined—gets hurt by moderate power now.

• Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA): steep penalty for 40+ light heavyweights showing slower reactions.

• Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT): Jan slows significantly after grappling exchanges; Guskov accelerates.

• Striking Defense Integrity (SDI): Jan’s defensive reads have slipped—gets hit earlier and cleaner than before.

• Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP2) favors Guskov, as Jan’s low output means he can be overwhelmed.

Błachowicz Advantages

• Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): Jan still has a technical edge if he gets top position.

• Veteran Strategy Bonus: excellent decision-making historically, though less reliable recently.

• Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP) applied to Guskov—he can blitz without setups.

• Control vs Damage Weight (CDW): Jan can win rounds with top control if he avoids early damage.

Concerns & Red Flags

• Post-KO Composure Penalty (PKCP) applies to Jan: recent stoppage losses and visible fragility matter.

• Volatility from style clash: explosive starter vs aging counter-striker = high chaos probability.

• Top-Control Fragility Check: Jan’s ability to hold down younger, more explosive fighters has faded.

• Pace + Physicality Gap: the younger, faster fighter wins these matchups historically >60%.

Volatility Rating

High (0.68) — officially a high-chaos fight.

Jan’s paths require clean early grappling; Guskov’s paths require landing early, which he often does.