Key Factors
Pantoja Advantages
Elite Scrambler Factor: immense advantage in chaotic grappling exchanges.
Veteran Strategy Bonus: championship composure, proven 5-round IQ, and elite adjustments.
Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): heavy advantage due to submission threat in all rounds.
Pace & Pressure: Pantoja pushes a high tempo that tests young fighters’ discipline and cardio.
Experience vs Similar Archetypes: He’s faced numerous explosive flyweights and consistently wins the scrambles.
Van Advantages
Aggression Reliability Bonus (ARB): he stays composed under fire and counters well.
Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): Van has shown clear improvements fight to fight.
Power and Physicality Adjustment (PPA): surprisingly strong for 125 lbs, especially early.
Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM): Van has real early-round danger, particularly with his hands.
Concerns & Red Flags
Adversity Response Coefficient (ARC): Van has not yet faced elite-level pressure or championship pacing.
Durability Integrity Check (DIC): Not a penalty, but untested at elite level—Pantoja has faced far more dangerous hitters.
Composure Disruption Sensitivity (CDS): Pantoja’s pace can overwhelm developing strikers early.
Top-Control Fragility Check: Van’s defensive wrestling is improving but not ready for Pantoja’s backpacking ability.
Volatility Rating
Moderate (0.54) — acceptable for an official pick.
Van is live early, but the deeper the fight goes, the more it shifts toward Pantoja.