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UFC 322: Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
Disclaimer:
The information presented here is strictly for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to place any wagers. All insights and predictions are based on data analysis and do not guarantee any outcomes. Please gamble responsibly and consult a professional advisor if you need financial guidance.
- Main Card
- Preliminary Card
- Early Prelims
Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev (Welterweight)
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by Decision or Submission (Round 3)
Probability: Islam Makhachev 63% – Jack Della Maddalena 37%
Underdog: Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena
Record: 18-2-0
Age: 29
Islam Makhachev
Record: 27-1-0
Age: 34
Fighter Profiles
Islam Makhachev – Elite control grappler with world-class chain wrestling, suffocating top pressure, and measured striking rooted in defensive structure. High fight IQ, consistent composure, and proven cardio over five rounds. He’s less explosive than at his peak but still extremely efficient.
Jack Della Maddalena – Precision boxer with excellent body-head combinations, sharp timing, and natural finishing instincts. High composure under pressure and tight defensive framing, but limited experience against relentless top-tier wrestlers with submission setups and positional control like Makhachev.
Advantages
Makhachev:
Superior wrestling and control metrics (TNB + GFW apply: +10%)
High fight IQ and adaptability under pressure (GDB + CUPM + ATB bonuses)
Elite composure and proven championship cardio (CSI + DVB bonuses active)
Grappling fallback plan with dominant positional control (WPC + GFW synergy)
Della Maddalena:
Elite boxing precision and short-range power (PPA + ESB bonuses apply)
Excellent timing in pocket exchanges; strong finishing instincts
Proven defensive composure against chaos strikers (ARC + EMB bonuses)
Potential to exploit Makhachev’s slower entries with body counters (RCE edge if space maintained)
Concerns
Makhachev:
Age curve beginning (ACA −6%): reflexes slightly slower, defensive striking openings emerging.
Predictable entries if jab not established (PEP −5%).
Facing a high-accuracy boxer could test his durability under clean body work.
Della Maddalena:
Unproven against elite wrestlers with smothering top games.
Defensive grappling still reactive, especially in chain-wrestle sequences (SRC −7%).
May lose early rounds due to control time despite landing better strikes (CDW factor).
Key Factors
Grappling Edge: Makhachev’s takedown control and transitions remain unmatched in the division.
Durability & Pace: Della Maddalena is durable and accurate, but prolonged grappling wears on him (FGEDR analog in male form: −5% cardio penalty).
Range Dynamics: If Makhachev can close distance without eating consistent body shots, control path dominates.
Finishing Threat: Della Maddalena’s best chance is a mid-fight body shot or uppercut as Makhachev shoots low—his finish equity remains ~20–25%.
Judging Bias: Champions often favored in close rounds; Makhachev benefits from +3% title defense bias (TDB rule).
Volatility & Confidence
Volatility: 0.48 (moderate)
Confidence Level: Official pick – meets ≥60% threshold
Live Underdog Watch: Della Maddalena early KO (Round 2) remains possible due to precise timing and Makhachev’s occasional overcommitment.
Final Prediction:
Islam Makhachev 63% – Jack Della Maddalena 37%
Most likely outcome: Islam Makhachev by Decision or late Submission (Round 3)
Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang (Flyweight)
Prediction: Weili Zhang by Decision or late TKO (Round 4–5)
Probability: Weili Zhang 58% – Valentina Shevchenko 42%
Underdog: Weili Zhang
Valentina Shevchenko
Record: 25-4-1
Age: 37
Weili Zhang
Record: 26-3-0
Age: 36
Fighter Profiles
Weili Zhang – Explosive, physically dominant striker-grappler hybrid with relentless pace, strong clinch offense, and much-improved wrestling transitions. Excellent cardio and composure at championship distance. Known for output, power, and adaptability under pressure.
Valentina Shevchenko – Former long-reigning flyweight champion; elite counter-striker with precise timing, tactical discipline, and world-class defensive awareness. Technical superiority remains, but athletic decline and reduced urgency have emerged since age 36.
Advantages
Zhang:
Superior physicality, speed, and strength (PPA +7%)
Sustained high output (CSI bonus + DVB active)
Improved chain wrestling and top pressure (TNB + GFW + GPW synergy)
Durable and mentally relentless (CUPM + ARC bonuses)
Better recent momentum and adaptability (EMB + ATB + ARI)
Shevchenko:
Sharper technique and counter-timing (CEB + RCA + GDB active)
Better range control and footwork (MDB + RCE bonuses)
Superior defensive striking IQ (SDI + GDB)
Potential to capitalize on Zhang’s aggression with counter knees or hooks
Concerns
Zhang:
Can be countered on entries (PCR − 6%)
Slight over-aggression may cost early points if Shevchenko controls range
Still hittable in mid-range exchanges (SDI − 4%)
Shevchenko:
Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA − 10%) — reduced explosiveness and reactive speed
Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT − 6%) — output drops after Round 3
Weaker clinch resistance vs stronger fighters (FGEDR-analog − 5%)
Motivation variance post-title era (MVI − 6%)
Key Factors
Physicality & Pace Differential: Zhang’s speed and strength advantage heavily influence control exchanges and optics.
Output vs Precision: Shevchenko lands cleaner shots, but Zhang overwhelms with volume and aggression.
Cardio & Urgency: Zhang maintains pace for 25 minutes; Shevchenko’s pace often dips after early technical dominance.
Championship Bias: Slight +2% title-defense bias toward Shevchenko mitigated by Zhang’s recent championship form.
Volatility: Moderate—Zhang’s bursts could open counter windows, but her volume should secure rounds.
Volatility & Confidence
Volatility: 0.52 (moderate)
Confidence Level: Official Pick – meets ≥ 60% threshold for Zhang
Live Underdog Watch: Shevchenko by early counter KO or split decision if Zhang cannot cut distance cleanly.
Final Prediction:
Weili Zhang 58% – Valentina Shevchenko 42%
Most likely outcome: Weili Zhang by Decision or late TKO (Round 4–5)
Sean Brady vs Michael Morales (Welterweight)
Prediction: Michael Morales by Decision or KO/TKO (Round 2–3)
Probability: Michael Morales 60% – Sean Brady 40%
Underdog: Michael Morales
Sean Brady
Record: 18-1-0
Age: 33
Michael Morales
Record: 18-0-0
Age: 26
Fighter Profiles
Michael Morales – Undefeated, explosive welterweight prospect with powerful boxing, fast entries, and elite physical attributes. High composure for his age, improving takedown defense, and strong finishing instincts once he builds rhythm.
Sean Brady – Compact pressure grappler with exceptional top control, suffocating clinch pressure, and strong core strength. Durable and well-conditioned, but output and striking variety remain limited. Relies heavily on takedown success to win rounds.
Advantages
Morales:
Youth, athleticism, and speed edge (PPA + 7%)
Clean straight punching with knockout power (ESB + 6%)
Excellent defensive composure under fire (CUPM + 5%)
Good takedown defense vs single-leg entries (TNB + 5%)
Superior distance control (RCE + 5%)
Brady:
Elite top control and positional dominance (WPC + GFW + 10%)
Strong submission threat once on top (EGBF + 5%)
Excellent cardio for grinding pace (DVB + CSI bonuses)
Ability to exploit Morales if caught along the fence (GPW edge)
Concerns
Morales:
Still developing scramble awareness vs elite grapplers (SRC − 5%)
Can be taken down from the clinch if over-committing on strikes (PEP − 4%)
Limited experience in deep waters with relentless grapplers
Brady:
Predictable takedown setups (PEP − 6%)
Declining striking confidence after recent loss (RRSP − 8%)
Slower reactions due to accumulated injuries (ACA − 6%)
If takedowns fail early, limited Plan B (UI − 7%)
Key Factors
Physical Differential: Morales’ length, speed, and power create serious resistance to Brady’s pressure game.
Grappling Control Path: Brady needs at least 6–7 minutes of control to win decisions, difficult vs Morales’ footwork.
Pace Dynamics: Morales’ steady output and cleaner damage (CDW priority) favored by judging trends.
Durability & Damage: Morales has shown strong chin and recovery; Brady’s striking defense (SDI − 6%) exposes him to counters.
Volatility: Moderate — Morales can be taken down early but dangerous on the feet throughout.
Volatility & Confidence
Volatility: 0.54 (moderate)
Confidence Level: Official pick – meets ≥ 60% threshold
Live Underdog Watch: Brady by submission (Round 1–2) if Morales starts too aggressively.
Final Prediction:
Michael Morales 60% – Sean Brady 40%
Most likely outcome: Michael Morales by Decision or KO/TKO (Round 2–3)
Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates (Welterweight)
Prediction: Leon Edwards by Decision or late TKO (Round 4–5)
Probability: Leon Edwards 64% – Carlos Prates 36%
Underdog: Leon Edwards
Leon Edwards
Record: 22-5-0, 1NC
Age: 34
Carlos Prates
Record: 22-7-0
Age: 32
Fighter Profiles
Leon Edwards – Technically elite, defensively sound striker with sharp counter timing, strong clinch control, and highly underrated wrestling defense. Master of range management, disciplined footwork, and fight IQ. Maintains composure and adapts mid-fight exceptionally well.
Carlos Prates – Surging Brazilian welterweight with explosive Muay Thai offense, slick body-head combinations, and finishing power. Durable and aggressive, but less refined defensively and often open during transitions. Relies on rhythm and momentum to overwhelm opponents.
Advantages
Edwards:
Superior defensive striking (SDI + 6%) and range control (RCE + 5%)
Proven five-round endurance (CSI + DVB active)
High-level composure and gameplan discipline (GDB + CUPM bonuses)
Experienced against elite opposition (CGR + ARC bonuses)
Strong clinch control and defensive grappling (TNB + RCA synergy)
Prates:
Explosive finishing ability (PPA + 6%)
Strong offensive Muay Thai with knees and elbows (CTM + 5%)
Youth and physical freshness (EMB + ARC active)
Capable of shifting momentum with bursts of violence
Concerns
Edwards:
Age curve beginning (ACA − 6%) — slower reaction time against fast starters
Sometimes starts cautiously and loses early rounds (SSA − 5%)
Limited finishing urgency may allow close scorecards (UI − 6%)
Prates:
Open defense when entering range (SDI − 7%)
Questionable five-round cardio (CSI − 7%)
Predictable forward movement vs lateral strikers (MDB − 6%)
Unproven against championship-level wrestle-boxers (SRC − 5%)
Key Factors
Experience Gap: Edwards’ tactical intelligence and composure under fire outweigh Prates’ raw aggression.
Cardio & Pace: Edwards maintains consistent pace; Prates’ output tends to fade after Round 2 (PDT − 7%).
Range Dynamics: Edwards’ jab-kick combination neutralizes Prates’ rhythm; RCE + RCA control optics.
Damage vs Control: Edwards’ clean striking and defensive control favored by judging trends (CDW priority).
Championship Bias: Edwards gains +3% from Title Defense Bias (TDB) in close rounds.
Volatility & Confidence
Volatility: 0.47 (low-moderate)
Confidence Level: Official pick – meets ≥60% threshold
Live Underdog Watch: Prates by early KO (Round 1–2) possible if Edwards starts too patient.
Final Prediction:
Leon Edwards 64% – Carlos Prates 36%
Most likely outcome: Leon Edwards by Decision or late TKO (Round 4–5)
Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis (Lightweight)
Prediction: Benoît Saint-Denis by TKO or Submission (Round 2–3)
Probability: Benoît Saint-Denis 62% – Beneil Dariush 38%
Underdog: Beneil Dariush
Beneil Dariush
Record: 23-6-1
Age: 36
Benoît Saint-Denis
Record: 16-3-0, 1NC
Age: 30
Fighter Profiles
Benoît Saint-Denis – All-action pressure fighter with ferocious pace, chain wrestling, and top-pressure grappling. Durable, mentally unbreakable, and thrives in chaos. His recent striking evolution (cleaner boxing entries, improved defense) complements his ground dominance.
Beneil Dariush – Veteran southpaw grappler-striker known for slick jiu-jitsu and underrated boxing fundamentals. High fight IQ but durability and speed have declined after recent KO losses. Often struggles when pressured relentlessly or forced into defensive scrambles.
Advantages
Saint-Denis:
Relentless pace and cardio (CSI + DVB bonuses active)
Chain wrestling persistence (WPC + GFW + 10%)
Grappling control plus finishing pressure (EGBF + CTM + 5%)
Youth, durability, and physical explosiveness (PPA + ARC + 7%)
Excellent recovery and endurance under fire (CUPM + DVB synergy)
Dariush:
Superior technical grappling transitions (SRC + GPW + 5%)
More experienced at elite level (CGR + GDB bonuses)
Southpaw counters and defensive jiu-jitsu remain dangerous
Can capitalize on Saint-Denis’ overextensions with sweeps or submissions
Concerns
Saint-Denis:
Still hittable when charging forward (SDI − 6%)
Overcommits on entries and can give up top position vs crafty veterans (ARP2 − 8%)
May tire slightly if forced into long defensive scrambles
Dariush:
Durability Integrity Check (DIC − 10%) – recent KO/TKO damage against top lightweights
Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA − 8%) – slower reactions and reduced speed
Recent Rout/Stalled Performance Penalty (RRSP − 7%) – poor last showing with low resistance under pressure
Urgency Index (UI − 6%) – tends to start slow and absorb early pressure
Key Factors
Pressure Dynamics: Saint-Denis’ relentless pace breaks down slower starters; Dariush’s rhythm game suffers under chaos.
Durability Differential: Saint-Denis absorbs punishment well; Dariush’s chin and recovery are visibly compromised.
Grappling Exchanges: Early scrambles favor Saint-Denis due to superior cardio and control efficiency.
Momentum & Confidence: BSD entering physical and mental peak; Dariush showing post-KO caution and reduced confidence.
Volatility: Moderate-high — Saint-Denis leaves openings, but Dariush unlikely to withstand sustained damage.
Volatility & Confidence
Volatility: 0.56 (moderate-high)
Confidence Level: Official Pick – meets ≥60% threshold
Live Underdog Watch: Dariush by early submission (Round 1) if BSD overextends recklessly.
Final Prediction:
Benoît Saint-Denis 62% – Beneil Dariush 38%
Most likely outcome: Benoît Saint-Denis by TKO or Submission (Round 2–3)