UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

1. Fighter profiles & recent form

Tom Aspinall

• Record roughly 15-3.

• Known for extremely high finishing rate: many of his wins are early via knockout.

• Striking differential is excellent: he leads in the heavyweight division in significant strikes landed per minute and differential.

• He has been elevated to undisputed champion after Jon Jones’ retirement, and this will be his first official defence of the undisputed belt.

• He brings not just striking but a very credible submission and grappling game (black belt in BJJ) – which means he is multi-dimensional.

Ciryl Gane

• Record roughly 13-2.

• Considered one of the more technically proficient strikers at heavyweight: excellent movement, footwork, range control.

• But he has come up short in previous title shots (lost to Ngannou, lost to Jon Jones).

• Odds and probability models show him as a clear underdog. For example, some sites peg Aspinall’s win-prob at ~80%.

2. Style match-up & key advantages/disadvantages

Aspinall’s advantages

• Explosive power. Given his finishing record, he can end fights quickly before opponents fully settle.

• Solid grappling and submission threat makes him dangerous in all phases.

• Big striking differential means he lands significantly more strikes than his opponents on average.

• He is the champion coming into this fight — momentum and confidence likely on his side.

Gane’s advantages

• Technical striking, movement, and defence. He may be better in longer fights and in staying composed.

• Experience in high-stakes fights (though hasn’t yet won the undisputed belt).

• Could attempt to keep it standing and avoid Aspinall’s early blitz.

Key risks for Gane

• If Aspinall can close distance early, impose his pace and power, Gane may be vulnerable. Analyses suggest Gane’s striking could be “exposed” by Aspinall’s pressure.

• Gane’s previous losses (including a submission loss) hint at potential weaknesses if the fight goes off his preferred game-plan.

• The odds suggest the betting market doesn’t see Gane as having sufficient edge.

Key risks for Aspinall

• If Gane can keep the fight long, maintain distance, use technical striking, and avoid early trouble, he may tilt the fight to decision time where Gane could accumulate advantage.

• As this is Aspinall’s first defence at undisputed level, the pressure and expectations are high.

3. Prediction & probability estimate

Given all factors, my prediction is: Aspinall wins, very likely via early stoppage (KO/TKO) or late submission. I estimate the probability of his win at around 80%.

Why 80% (above your 75% threshold)?

• The models/odds estimate roughly ~80.4% win probability for Aspinall.

• The gap in attributes favours Aspinall in finishing capacity and strike output.

• Gane is very good, but his previous losses and the challenger status reduce his margin for error.

• If Aspinall executes his game-plan, Gane will have difficulty imposing his style.

Alternate scenario: If Gane keeps it standing, controls range, avoids danger in early rounds, he could upset via decision or late finish — but I see that as lower probability.

4. Potential outcomes & how they play

• Most likely: Aspinall KO/TKO in Rounds 1-2.

• Next likely: Aspinall wins by submission or decision.

• Less likely: Gane wins by decision or late finish if he successfully neutralises Aspinall’s early aggression.

• Unlikely but not impossible: Upset by Gane.

5. My final call

I pick Tom Aspinall to defeat Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 with a success probability of about 80%. He retains his heavyweight title.

Virna Jandiroba – style & strengths:

• Durable, composed BJJ black belt with strong positional control and improved striking defense.

• Good takedown entries, chain wrestling, and top pressure — particularly effective over three rounds.

• Excellent cardio and composure in grappling exchanges.

• Rarely fades and tends to win through accumulation and control rather than wild scrambles.

Mackenzie Dern – style & strengths:

• Dangerous submission artist, especially from guard and during transitions.

• Improved stand-up volume recently, though still hittable.

• Very active once fights hit the mat — high submission attempt rate.

• Can steal rounds with near-submissions and pressure if she finds rhythm.

Key factors favoring Jandiroba:

• Better wrestling base — can dictate where the fight happens.

• Superior top control and positional awareness.

• More measured and disciplined gameplan; tends to avoid wild scrambles where Dern thrives.

• Recent composure and improved striking defense give her an edge in close rounds.

Risk factors:

• Dern’s jiu-jitsu threat remains real — one positional mistake could end it.

• If Jandiroba plays too defensively, she might get caught in a momentum swing late.

• Slight possibility of split decision if Dern lands visible submission attempts.

✅ Official Pick: Virna Jandiroba by Decision

Confidence: Moderate (55%)

1. Fighter Profiles & Recent Form

Umar Nurmagomedov

• Professional record: 18-1 (loss to champion Merab Dvalishvili in January 2025).

• Strengths: exceptional grappling pedigree (combat sambo champ), strong submission skills (7 wins by sub) and high striking accuracy (UFC: highest significant strike % in bantamweight history, ~63.1 %).

• Key note: In his title fight vs Dvalishvili he had a broken hand early on, which hampered his striking.

• He is highly ranked (#2 in the division) and on a mission to rebound.

Mario Bautista

• Professional record: 16-2 (or 16-2-0) entering this fight.

• Strengths: Good striking volume (SLpM ~5.33) and solid submission threat (6 wins by sub).

• Recent form: Riding an 8-fight win streak in the UFC, building momentum.

• He has less signature wins at the top level compared to Umar, and fewer tools in controlling fights against elite grapplers.

2. Style Match-Up & Key Dynamics

Advantages for Umar:

• Grappling/ground control superiority. With his sambo and submission background and elite striking accuracy, Umar can dictate the phases of the fight.

• Experience against the division’s best; despite losing his title fight, he showed he belongs at the top.

• Motivation: He wants to bounce back and reclaim contender status — often a driver.

Advantages for Bautista:

• Momentum and nothing to lose: He can fight more freely and might exploit complacency.

• Striker-submission hybrid: If he keeps it standing, mixes levels and uses his submission threat, he can surprise.

• Umar’s previous injury might still echo (mental/physical), giving Bautista an angle.

Key concerns for each:

• For Umar: The broken hand incident suggests vulnerability, and if Bautista avoids grappling and keeps the fight upright, Umar’s submission edge somewhat diminished. Also, any rust or underestimation could hurt.

• For Bautista: Grappling danger is real — once Umar takes control on the mat, Bautista will be in trouble. He must avoid getting locked down. Also, fewer wins over top-tier opponents means he might struggle step-up wise.

3. Prediction & Outcome Estimate

Given the inputs, I estimate Umar Nurmagomedov wins with ~70% probability, while Mario Bautista is ~30%chance.

Why 70% (not higher)?

• Umar has the clear edge in most key dimensions (grappling, accuracy, experience).

• Bautista’s momentum and versatility give him genuine upset potential (hence 30%).

• The injury linger and Umar’s recent loss introduces some risk — it prevents me from pushing the probability too high (e.g., to 80%+).

• Style-matchup favours Umar unless Bautista executes a near-perfect gameplan.

Most likely outcome: Umar wins by decision or late submission. Ancient scenario: Bautista keeps it standing, fights hard, but can’t avoid the mat/control phases, and Umar accumulates control/ground time to win rounds.

Less likely but possible: Bautista possibly wins by out-working Umar standing, using movement and striking volume to avoid takedowns and secure a decision (or late finish). But that requires outperforming significantly in his weakest area (grappling defence).

4. Official Pick

• Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov

• Method: Decision or submission (Umar controlling grappling)

• Confidence: ~70%

Fighter Profiles & Recent Form

Alexander Volkov

• Record: 38-11-0.

• Physical: 6’7” tall, significant reach (~80”) giving him size and striking range.

• Style: Primarily a striker, with 24 KO/TKO wins.

• Recent performance: Still competitive at high level, but also has several losses to elite opponents.

Jailton Almeida

• Record: 22-3-0.

• Physical: 6’3”, somewhat smaller than Volkov in height and reach.

• Style: Strong grappler/submission artist – 13 of his wins by submission.

• Recent performance: On a strong run; his skill set positions him as a serious heavyweight contender.

Style Match-up & Key Dynamics

Advantages for Volkov:

• Size and striking range: Being taller with reach gives Volkov a structural advantage in stand-up.

• Knockout power and experience: His KO count shows he can finish fights from the stand-up.

• Familiarity: He has faced top heavyweights and shown he can hang with the division’s best.

Advantages for Almeida:

• Grappling dominance: He’s excellent at taking fights to the ground and finishing there.

• Submission ability: Many wins by submission means he poses significant danger if the fight hits the mat.

• Momentum and younger trajectory: Almeida appears to be on an ascending path.

Key concerns:

• For Volkov: If Almeida gets the fight to the ground, Volkov could be at risk – his grappling defence may be the weaker link. Also age and wear might be factors, considering his many fights.

• For Almeida: Volkov’s height/reach may allow him to keep the fight standing and avoid grappling, which would lessen Almeida’s best path to victory. Almeida must impose his grappling to maximise his chances.

Prediction & Probability Estimate

Given the above, I estimate:

Volkov 60% – Almeida 40%

Reasoning:

• I lean Volkov slightly because of the reach/striking advantage and his experience at heavyweight elite level.

• Almeida is dangerous and has a path to win (via grappling/submission) which gives him a respectable ~40% chance.

• The deviation from say 70/30 is because Almeida’s grappling gives him a real chance, and Volkov’s style disadvantage on the ground hurts his winning probability somewhat.

• Also, Volkov has shown some susceptibility to high-level grapplers; Almeida could exploit that.

Most likely outcome: Volkov wins via decision or KO, by utilising striking and keeping the fight upright.

Alternate scenario (though less likely): Almeida closes distance, takes Volkov down repeatedly and finishes by submission or ground control decision.

Official Pick

• Winner: Alexander Volkov

• Method: KO/TKO or decision (keeping the fight standing)

• Confidence: Moderate (~60%)

Aleksandar Rakić – style & strengths:

Explosive technical striker with strong fundamentals, excellent use of kicks, and solid takedown defense. Rakić prefers a calculated, distance-based approach, using his reach and timing to outpoint opponents rather than brawling.

Azamat Murzakanov – style & strengths:

Compact, powerful southpaw who relies on explosiveness, counterpunching, and blitz entries. Murzakanov often wins through pressure bursts and power hooks, though he can fade if the fight extends into deep rounds.

Updated key factors:

• Momentum & activity: Rakić’s long layoffs and ACL recovery trigger a −7% Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT)and Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA) penalty; he hasn’t fought consistently since 2022.

• Murzakanov’s durability & chaos edge: +6% Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM) and +5% Aggression Reliability Bonus for his ability to maintain composure while pressing forward.

• Stylistic clash: Rakić’s range control works best vs patient strikers, but Murzakanov’s bursts can overwhelm his rhythm early.

• Volatility: High (0.64) due to Murzakanov’s explosiveness and Rakić’s return uncertainty.

Why the adjustment:

Murzakanov’s undefeated run, durability, and compact explosiveness are proven at UFC level. Rakić, despite technical polish, has been inactive and tends to fight cautiously — which can lose rounds or open him to pressure. Unless he perfectly controls range for 15 minutes, the finishing threat and momentum favor Murzakanov.

✅ Official Pick: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO or Decision

Confidence: Moderate-High (58%)