UFC 320: Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Grappling and cage control edge; if he commits, top control could bank rounds.

Durability and composure—less likely to be flustered by Pereira’s pressure.

Five-round experience and steady pace.

Fight-changing power—one clean left hook or counter can end Ankalaev’s night.

Technical striking superiority, especially at mid-range.

Championship composure; proven ability to rise in high-pressure moments.

Historically hesitant to engage—judges may lean toward Pereira’s striking volume and optics.

Needs consistent takedowns; if he only tries 1–2, Pereira could run away with damage.

Cardio is solid but not overwhelming; unlikely to “break” Pereira.

Durability questions at 205 if he faces extended wrestling control.

Susceptible to cage clinch takedowns and ground control if Ankalaev commits.

Defensive grappling improvements exist but remain untested against persistent wrestlers.

Commitment to wrestling: Ankalaev’s willingness to wrestle for three or more rounds is the swing factor.

KO threat window: Pereira is always dangerous, especially early. If Ankalaev survives rounds 1–2, his chances rise.

Judging optics: In a close decision, Pereira’s heavier strikes may sway judges over Ankalaev’s control.

Durability & Recovery: Ankalaev has historically taken shots well, but Pereira’s power is unique at LHW.

Ankalaev 55% – Pereira 45%

Most likely outcome: Ankalaev by Decision

Live underdog factor: Pereira always carries knockout equity, particularly early (Rounds 1–2).

Wrestling volume and relentless pressure—can sap Sandhagen’s creativity by forcing constant defense.

Iron chin and toughness; has never been finished despite eating big shots.

Five-round pace that few bantamweights can match.

Striking diversity—knees, elbows, body shots, and creative combinations.

Length and range control; can pick off Merab if he finds rhythm.

Good scrambling—rarely held down for long, which could frustrate Merab’s control game.

Often struggles to keep opponents grounded despite many takedowns; judges may not always reward failed shots.

Predictable entries could leave him vulnerable to flying knees, uppercuts, or intercepting strikes.

Sandhagen’s footwork and volume could steal rounds if Merab slows late.

Historically pressured into bad spots against elite grapplers (e.g., Sterling, Dillashaw).

Can get overwhelmed when stuck defending takedowns for long stretches.

Needs significant damage to offset Merab’s relentless optics of control.

Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC): Merab’s cardio and volume make him a nightmare stylistically—Sandhagen must finish or cause visible damage.

Scramble Efficiency: Sandhagen won’t be held down, but constant takedown defense limits his offense.

Damage vs Control: If Sandhagen lands sharp knees/elbows, he could steal rounds, but Merab’s volume usually sways judges.

Durability Edge: Merab has proven he can walk through shots; Sandhagen has been cracked but not broken.

Dvalishvili 60% – Sandhagen 40%

Most likely outcome: Dvalishvili by Decision

Live underdog factor: Sandhagen’s intercepting knees/uppercuts present real danger, especially early.

Chaos factor: thrives when fights devolve into wild brawls, where his creativity shines.

Proven durability and recovery—even after absorbing big shots, he finds ways to rally.

Better 5-round experience and cardio for extended pace.

Cleaner, more technical striker; low kicks could seriously compromise Procházka’s movement.

Fight-ending power in both hands and knees.

If he controls the pace, Jiří’s reckless entries can be punished.

Extremely hittable; relies too much on durability and recovery. Against a power striker like Rountree, this is dangerous.

Reckless entries leave him open for counters and knees.

Damage accumulation from past wars may be catching up.

Historically inconsistent—has great performances but sometimes freezes under pressure.

Gas tank questionable if forced into extended high pace.

Struggles if drawn into chaotic exchanges, where Jiří thrives.

Volatility Index: Very high—both men can end the fight with a single strike.

Durability vs Power: Jiří’s recovery ability vs Rountree’s cleaner, more powerful shots.

Cardio Factor: If this goes beyond Round 2, Jiří’s chaos and cardio advantage become decisive.

Leg Kick Threat: Rountree’s path may be chopping Jiří’s legs early to slow his blitzing style.

Procházka 58% – Rountree 42%

Most likely outcome: Procházka by KO/TKO (Round 2–3)

Live underdog factor: Rountree’s low kicks and early counters make him dangerous in Round 1.

Fight-ending power—one punch can finish Zalal if he overextends.

Strong wrestling background as a fallback option.

Experience against top-tier featherweights, proven in wars.

Speed and movement—can frustrate Emmett by staying elusive.

Volume kicking game could bank points if he avoids the big shot.

Younger, fresher, and less damage accumulated compared to Emmett.

At 39, durability and reflexes may be slipping—recent KO losses add concern.

Tends to load up on power punches, which could be telegraphed.

Cardio fades if he chases too many big shots without results.

Lack of finishing threat—struggles to deter opponents with pure power.

If pressured and cornered, Emmett’s power can overwhelm him.

Has not yet proven himself against elite knockout artists at this level.

Aging & Damage Curve: Emmett’s durability is a red flag—recent KO damage compounds risk.

Power vs Movement: Emmett’s KO power vs Zalal’s evasiveness and volume.

Experience Gap: Emmett has faced top names, while Zalal is less tested at this level.

Volatility: If Emmett lands early, fight could end suddenly. If Zalal avoids power, fight swings toward him.

Emmett 57% – Zalal 43%

Most likely outcome: Emmett by KO/TKO (Round 2)

Live underdog factor: Zalal can win a decision by staying elusive and using range if Emmett slows.

Range and length—can snipe with kicks and straight punches early.

Experience advantage across different organizations and opponents.

If he sets the tempo early, can frustrate Pyfer’s forward pressure.

Superior boxing and finishing power, especially in pocket exchanges.

Durable and composed, able to weather early storms.

Stronger wrestling and physicality if the fight hits the mat.

Historically fades after Round 1—cardio a major liability.

Durability questionable if pressured consistently.

Can get overwhelmed when opponents push pace and don’t allow him space.

Still relatively untested against experienced, awkward strikers.

Tends to load up on power shots—if Magomedov sticks and moves, Joe could fall behind on volume.

Needs to be careful early—Magomedov is most dangerous in the opening minutes.

Cardio Disparity: Pyfer has better stamina; Magomedov fades significantly past Round 1.

KO Threat Window: Magomedov dangerous early, but Pyfer’s finishing power carries throughout.

Durability Edge: Pyfer more reliable under fire, whereas Magomedov has wilted under pressure.

Experience vs Momentum: Magomedov is more experienced, but Pyfer is the fresher, rising prospect.

Pyfer 56% – Magomedov 44%

Most likely outcome: Pyfer by KO/TKO (Round 2)

Live underdog factor: Magomedov is very live early—his first-round explosiveness could steal it if Pyfer starts slow.