UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev

Fighter Styles & Key Factors

Dricus Du Plessis – Pressure striker with awkward but effective timing, heavy hands, and underrated grappling. Known for breaking opponents with pace and physicality. Proven in 5-round wars, strong cardio for his size, and mental toughness. Defending champion with proven composure under bright lights. However, he tends to absorb damage early, and his defensive reactions can be exploitable against explosive entries.

Khamzat Chimaev – Elite pressure wrestler with fast, powerful level changes and suffocating top control. Explosive early, with an aggressive striking game built on intimidation and pressure. Known for overwhelming opponents quickly, but untested in deep 5-round middleweight title fights. Cardio can be strong in 3-rounders, but extended grappling-heavy outputs at 185 lbs have not been fully proven. His striking defense in extended exchanges remains hittable.

Experience Against Similar Fighters

• Du Plessis has beaten high-level wrestlers (Darren Till, Derek Brunson) but none with Chimaev’s wrestling chain and intensity.

• Chimaev has dominated strong strikers, but Du Plessis’s combination of awkwardness, power, and durability is a unique test.

Recent Life Events & Morale Factors

• Du Plessis has had consistent fight camps and is coming in healthy. Champion confidence and stability are in his favor.

• Chimaev has had visa and health delays in recent years, but nothing publicly negative in this camp.

Physical Matchup

• Height/Reach nearly identical.

• Du Plessis slightly more proven in 25-minute fights.

• Chimaev has the more explosive first-round threat, especially via takedowns and top control.

Durability & Recovery

• Du Plessis is extremely durable and recovers well mid-fight.

• Chimaev has never been knocked out or finished, but has shown moments of slowing when pushed past round 2.

Cardio & Pace Dynamics

• If Chimaev dominates early without finishing, Du Plessis’s pressure and awkward striking could start swinging momentum in rounds 3–5.

• If Du Plessis can keep the fight standing long enough each round, his volume and damage potential increase.

Judging & Title Defense Bias

• As the defending champion, Du Plessis gets a slight probability bump in close rounds due to champion’s edge in judging.

Lerone Murphy

• Style & Strengths: High-volume technical striker with clean boxing fundamentals, sharp counters, and strong distance management. Durable and composed under fire, with proven cardio over 5-round fights.

• Advantages: Undefeated in the UFC, excellent defensive awareness, and the ability to maintain output deep into fights. Has experience against ranked opponents and can adapt mid-fight.

• Concerns: Short-notice fight could affect conditioning and sharpness. Historically starts at a measured pace, which may allow a fast starter like Pico to bank early rounds. Limited proven ability to reverse strong chain wrestling pressure once grounded.

Aaron Pico

• Style & Strengths: Explosive wrestler-boxer with elite amateur wrestling credentials and heavy hands. Uses feints to set up takedowns or big overhands. Capable of overwhelming opponents with athleticism and power in short bursts.

• Advantages: Strong takedown game, excellent top control when disciplined, and dangerous pocket power. This is a 3-round fight, which favors his early explosiveness and pace.

• Concerns: Durability under sustained damage remains a question—has been caught in exchanges before. Limited UFC-level experience against elite featherweights. Known to occasionally overcommit, creating openings for counters.

Prediction Reasoning

This fight pits Murphy’s proven UFC experience and volume striking against Pico’s elite wrestling and knockout power. Over 3 rounds, Pico’s explosiveness and ability to mix striking with takedowns should allow him to control the early action. Murphy’s durability means a finish is less likely, but his path to victory hinges on surviving Pico’s early pressure and turning the fight into a cardio battle.

Short notice favors Pico’s fast-start style, while Murphy’s late-round surge potential is reduced in a 3-round setting. If Murphy can stuff takedowns and establish his jab early, he could swing rounds, but the more likely scenario is Pico banking the first two rounds with control and clean power shots, forcing Murphy to need a finish in the third.

Geoff Neal

• Style & Strengths: Heavy-handed striker with a potent volume approach. Known as “Handz of Steel,” he pressures relentlessly and boasts multiple recent finishes.

• Advantages: Strong durability, experience in high-stakes bouts, solid defensive metrics (defends ~57% of significant strikes), and higher SLpM (5.05 vs 3.60) . Motivated to keep the fight off the cards—“I see me knocking him out in the first round.”

• Concerns: Entering his mid-30s (34) and past his peak; vulnerable when overextending, as shown in past inconsistencies . Underdog with odds around +200 to +215

Carlos Prates

• Style & Strengths: Explosive Muay Thai-based striker, with a string of first-round finishes and four consecutive Performance of the Night bonuses in the UFC . Taller and longer (6’1”, 78” reach) with significant knockout power

• Advantages: Superior reach, finishing ability, and streak of highlight-reel performances—all at just 31. Betting odds heavily favor him (~–250 to –270), and 90% of Tapology users side with him

• Concerns: Comes off a unanimous decision loss to Ian Garry, which may raise questions about how he fares against high-level grapplers and in longer fights . Though his style promises fireworks, it’s more of a power-based offense—durability in later rounds is still untested.

Prediction Reasoning

This fight is a classic striker vs. striker showdown. Prates brings a relentless knockout-orientated style, flying under the banner of “must-see violence,” and backed by momentum, reach, and power that Neal must fear. Neal, while dangerous, is the underdog here; his path to victory lies in weathering Prates’s early onslaught and capitalizing if Prates slows. However, the 3-round format tilts the scales toward Prates’s fast-start, finishing mindset.

Given the betting lines, community predictions, and stylistic matchup:

• Carlos Prates — 60% likelihood — expected to land the finishing blow, likely via KO/TKO in early rounds.

• Geoff Neal — 40% likelihood — if he can absorb the early storm and exploit openings, there’s a path, but it’s uphill.

Given Prates’s history of early finishes and Neal’s admission he’s going for a quick knockout himself, I lean toward Carlos Prates by KO/TKO, likely before the final bell.

Jacob Kilburn

• Style & Strengths: Forward-moving striker with boxing fundamentals, willing to engage in exchanges. Has some regional experience and a willingness to brawl.

• Advantages: Grit and durability when fresh; offensive volume when not facing high-level opposition.

• Concerns: Significant losing streak (five straight losses), limited success at UFC level, and fights naturally at featherweight—massive size, reach, and power disadvantage against a proven welterweight. Striking defense has been exploitable, and ground game hasn’t been a consistent weapon at higher competition levels.

Michael Page

• Style & Strengths: Highly unorthodox, rangy striker with elite timing, exceptional movement, and devastating counter-striking power. Master of distance control and flashy finishes.

• Advantages: Vastly superior striking arsenal, huge reach advantage, proven against high-level competition, and carries fight-ending power in both hands and kicks. UFC debut win over Sharabutdin Magomedov in 2025 reinforced his ability to handle explosive strikers.

• Concerns: Historically, can be less effective when heavily pressured into grappling exchanges—but Kilburn has not shown the wrestling pedigree to threaten him here.

Prediction Reasoning

This is a severe mismatch on paper. Kilburn’s natural weight class, skill set, and recent form place him at a major disadvantage against one of the most dangerous and creative strikers in MMA. The reach gap and striking speed differential mean Kilburn would have to take big risks to close distance, leaving him open for counters.

Unless Kilburn could somehow turn this into a grinding clinch battle and wear down Page—something his past fights haven’t suggested—Page’s early knockout is the overwhelmingly likely outcome.

Tim Elliott

• Style & Strengths: Veteran flyweight with elite wrestling pedigree—NCAA Division II background—and relentless pace. He is unorthodox on the feet, mixing stance-switching, calf kicks, and feints to set up his takedowns .

• Advantages: Proven grappling control and submission ability; excels in taking opponents down and riding them out. His experience and durability are undeniable, along with a strong chin (notably hasn’t been knocked out since 2009) .

• Concerns: At 38 years old, the flyweight cut and cardio could be problematic, especially in later rounds . His striking defense can be sloppy and exploitable, particularly against elite timing and power.

Kai Asakura

• Style & Strengths: Explosive and creative striker with heavy KO power. He possesses precision timing, dynamic movement, and finishing instincts honed from his time as RIZIN Bantamweight Champion .

• Advantages: Strong striking accuracy and the ability to capitalize on openings with devastating counters. His debut against Pantoja showcased his timing and power, even if grappling deficiencies were later exposed . He also holds a significant physical edge with a longer reach (69″ vs 66″) .

• Concerns: Has shown vulnerabilities when taken down; his submission defense isn’t elite, and Elliott is a high-volume grappler. The key challenge will be avoiding Elliott’s wrestling early .

Prediction Reasoning

This turns into a classic striker-versus-wrestler chess match. Elliott must utilize feints and unconventional entries to mask his takedown attempts; if he gets Asakura down early, control and possibly a submission are within reach. However, age and weight cut issues may undermine his cardio as the fight progresses.

Asakura must keep the fight upright and rely on footwork and sharp counters—Elliott’s linear pressure plays directly into his counter-striking threat. Tapology user predictions heavily favor Asakura (92% for Asakura) , and betting odds also suggest a strong lean: Asakura around –300, Elliott around +240 .

Mmamania’s breakdown echoes this: they highlight Asakura’s counter-punching potential while noting Elliott would need to score takedowns through creative setups to even compete—concluding that Asakura’s power and timing likely pave the way to a KO, especially as Elliott tires