UFC 318: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

Max Holloway

• Style: Volume striker, cardio machine, elite boxing

• Strengths: Durability, output, composure, timing, pressure

• Recent form: Just knocked out Justin Gaethje with a walk-off KO after dominating most of the BMF fight. He’s peaking again with improved power at lightweight.

• Morale: Sky-high, very active, no known injuries.

Dustin Poirier

• Style: Southpaw boxer-puncher, great timing and grit

• Strengths: Fight IQ, timing on counters, durability (though declining), elite boxing exchanges

• Recent form: Suffered a brutal KO loss to Islam Makhachev; had a war with Gaethje prior.

• Morale: Likely contemplating retirement, diminished urgency and signs of physical decline.

Key Factors

• Durability: Holloway is one of the most durable fighters ever. Poirier has been dropped or KO’d multiple times in recent years.

• Cardio and volume: Holloway still builds as rounds go on. Poirier fades under heavy attrition, especially at this point in his career.

• Power threat: Dustin can hurt Max early if they box in the pocket, but Max’s improved composure and power at 155 limit that edge.

• Morale and hunger: Holloway seems fully reinvigorated; Poirier is more emotionally spent, possibly one foot out the door.

Prediction

Max Holloway 60% – Dustin Poirier 40%

Most Probable Outcome: Max Holloway by Decision

In a 5-round fight, expect Holloway to take over late and potentially hurt Poirier in Rounds 4–5. If it’s a 3-rounder, Poirier has a better chance to edge it with early success. But overall, the durability gap and Poirier’s recent decline tilt the odds toward Holloway in a rematch.

Paulo Costa

• Explosive pressure striker with KO power, strong body kicks, and brawling instincts.

• Has historically overwhelmed opponents with physicality and chaos, but cardio and output fade late.

• Fought just once per year since 2021, with signs of declining urgency and long layoffs.

• Took heavy damage in wars (Romero, Vettori), and recent decision loss to Whittaker showed hesitancy and less explosiveness.

• Durability is still decent, but reactive defense in extended exchanges is poor.

• Morale and motivation questionable; recent inactivity and public outbursts hint at declining focus.

Roman Kopylov

• Patient, technical southpaw with clean boxing, great timing, and strong body work.

• Maintains composure under fire and punishes sloppy entries, especially with liver kicks and counters.

• Struggles when pressured by elite grapplers (e.g., Anthony Hernandez), but Costa isn’t a takedown threat.

• Recently bounced back with a strong TKO win, showing improved shot selection and killer instinct.

• Better cardio and discipline over three rounds; doesn’t rely on brute strength or chaos.

• No signs of mental or physical decline — composed, consistent, and still improving.

Key Factors

• Experience against similar opponents: Kopylov has fought composed strikers; Costa’s past wars may not translate here due to different pace and style.

• Recent events: Kopylov is on an upward trajectory; Costa’s inactivity and recent losses show a potential pattern of decline.

• Morale & mental state: Kopylov stable and composed; Costa showing signs of burnout and inconsistent preparation.

• Cardio: Advantage Kopylov, especially if Costa slows in Round 2.

• Pressure vs Composure: Costa’s pressure works only if sustained early; Kopylov thrives when the fight slows down and becomes technical.

• Durability: Both tough, but Costa has absorbed more recent damage; fading durability a concern.

• Finishing threat: Costa has early KO potential; Kopylov has cumulative damage potential late.

• Volatility: Moderate — Costa always live for early chaos, but sustained advantage shifts to Kopylov.

• Camp & preparation: No confirmed issues for either, but Costa’s history of erratic camps is a concern.

• Damage in last 3 fights: Costa has absorbed far more.

• Fight IQ: Clear edge to Kopylov — better decision-making and discipline.

• Pace and pressure: Kopylov handles slower, measured fights better; Costa needs momentum to win.

Kevin Holland

• Tall, lanky striker with unpredictable movement, sharp counters, and opportunistic grappling.

• Strengths include reach advantage, speed, awkward angles, and sneaky power.

• Often fights with loose discipline; inconsistent gameplanning and defensive gaps, especially when pressured.

• Struggles against pressure wrestlers and volume punchers who stay in his face (e.g., Brunson, Vettori, Della Maddalena).

• Recently more composed and measured — shown improvements in takedown defense and patience.

• Durable, creative, and dangerous in scrambles. Active and injury-free.

Daniel Rodriguez

• Southpaw boxer with a pressure style, good hands, and solid durability.

• Best when leading with volume and breaking opponents down with combinations and forward pressure.

• Lacks one-punch power but accumulates damage and stays in the pocket.

• Has shown defensive holes, particularly against speed and fighters who use range effectively.

• Returning from a long layoff and USADA suspension — inactivity and cage rust are concerns.

• Known to be tough and gritty, but limited athletic ceiling and can be picked apart at range.

Key Factors

• Experience against similar styles: Holland has fought many brawlers and southpaws; Rodriguez less tested vs rangy switch-hitters like Holland.

• Recent events: Holland active and improving; Rodriguez off over a year with potential ring rust.

• Morale: Holland seems focused and on a mission; Rodriguez returning under pressure to deliver.

• Cardio: Slight edge to Rodriguez in consistent volume, but Holland more explosive.

• Durability: Both are tough, but Holland is more elusive and handles damage better.

• Reach & range management: Holland has major length advantage and knows how to use it.

• Fight IQ: Holland is chaotic but increasingly tactical; Rodriguez is straightforward but hittable.

• Scramble efficiency: Holland has the edge — opportunistic submissions are a danger.

• Volatility: Medium — Holland can KO or sub Rodriguez if D-Rod walks into danger.

• Damage in last 3 fights: Holland has taken damage but recovered well; Rodriguez coming off KO loss to Ian Garry.

• Style clash: Rodriguez pressures but doesn’t wrestle; this plays into Holland’s hands.

Prediction

Kevin Holland 65% – Daniel Rodriguez 35%

Most Probable Outcome: Kevin Holland by Submission

Rodriguez’s pressure could work if Holland stays too passive, but the range, timing, and threat of counters and submissions give Holland multiple paths to win. Especially after Rodriguez’s long layoff and recent knockout, this favors Holland’s versatility and finishing ability.

Dan Ige

• Durable boxer-wrestler with sharp hooks, underrated power, and good timing.

• Strong hips, solid takedown defense, and explosive overhands make him dangerous in mid-range.

• Composed and patient when needed, but often falls behind on volume against high-output strikers.

• Recently showing improved control and poise — sharp performance vs Andre Fili.

• Extremely durable and hard to finish; cardio holds up through 3 rounds.

• Comes from a good camp, consistent activity, no known injuries.

Patrício Pitbull

• Bellator legend — explosive counters, strong calf kicks, and a devastating left hook.

• Extremely experienced and well-rounded; former dual champion at Featherweight and Lightweight.

• Shorter reach but compact power; relies on timing rather than volume.

• Coming off a brutal KO loss to Chihiro Suzuki and several physically taxing fights.

• Concerns about mileage, durability decline, and the quick turnaround from a devastating loss.

• No longer at peak form, but still dangerous early if not pressured.

Key Factors

• Experience against similar opponents: Ige has seen power punchers before (e.g., Barboza, Emmett); Pitbull has not faced many UFC-caliber grinders in his late career.

• Recent events: Ige is stable and active; Pitbull is coming off a KO less than 60 days prior — a major red flag.

• Morale and mental state: Ige looks reinvigorated. Pitbull may be questioning his future after back-to-back losses.

• Cardio: Ige’s gas tank is reliable; Pitbull tends to fade slightly in R3.

• Durability: Ige is very tough to put away. Pitbull’s chin has shown cracks lately.

• Fight IQ and pace: Ige adjusts well and sets traps. Pitbull can get drawn into low-volume staring contests.

• Volatility: Moderate to high — Pitbull can still land fight-ending counters.

• Damage in last 3 fights: Pitbull has taken more damage, including a recent KO loss.

• Stylistic dynamic: Ige’s pressure and durability are a problem for an aging counter-striker who’s slowing down.

Prediction

Dan Ige 62% – Patrício Pitbull 38%

Most Probable Outcome: Dan Ige by Decision

Pitbull’s power still makes him dangerous, especially early, but the wear-and-tear, short turnaround, and Ige’s consistent pressure and durability point toward Ige pulling away in a measured but clear win. If Pitbull fades by Round 2, a late finish isn’t off the table — but decision is more likely.

Michael Johnson

• Southpaw boxer-wrestler with fast hands and strong early-round striking.

• Historically explosive in Round 1, with excellent timing and speed — notably dropped fighters like Khabib, Gaethje, Barboza.

• But career plagued by inconsistency, poor fight IQ, and repeated late-fight collapses.

• Chin has declined — knocked out by Jamie Mullarkey and Thiago Moisés; reacts poorly under pressure.

• Still dangerous early if allowed to dictate range and pace.

• Aging veteran, low urgency, questionable durability, and declining reflexes.

Daniel Zellhuber

• Tall, long striker with smooth jab, strong defensive movement, and evolving takedown defense.

• Uses feints, range, and front kicks to manage distance and slow down faster opponents.

• Shaky UFC debut aside, has shown growth in composure, volume, and grappling awareness.

• Still developing physically, but high ceiling and learning from every outing.

• Durable and patient — doesn’t fall apart under pressure.

• Solid cardio, good composure, and improving fight IQ.

Key Factors

• Experience against similar fighters: Johnson has experience vs high-level strikers, but his record vs younger pressure fighters is poor. Zellhuber has fought a few fast starters but is mostly untested vs true vets.

• Recent events: Zellhuber is on a clear upward trend. Johnson is in a late-career decline.

• Morale and urgency: Zellhuber looks focused and motivated. Johnson often coasts or fades when adversity hits.

• Durability: Zellhuber has never been knocked out. Johnson has been KO’d multiple times recently.

• Cardio and pacing: Zellhuber has 3-round gas; Johnson slows significantly after Round 1.

• Fight IQ: Zellhuber showing steady improvement. Johnson often makes critical errors late in fights.

• Volatility: Moderate — Johnson is dangerous in Round 1 but fades quickly.

• Damage in last 3 fights: Johnson has taken significant head trauma. Zellhuber — minimal.

• Stylistic clash: Southpaw speed vs tall structured striker. If Johnson doesn’t hurt him early, Zellhuber takes over with jabs, kicks, and volume.

Prediction

Daniel Zellhuber 68% – Michael Johnson 32%

Most Probable Outcome: Daniel Zellhuber by Decision

Zellhuber’s reach, composure, and cardio should neutralize Johnson after a potentially dicey first round. Johnson has a puncher’s chance early, but all roads favor Zellhuber pulling away late unless he gets caught.