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Prediction: Bueno Silva by Decision or late Submission (Round 3)
Reality: Cavalcanti by Decision
The model overweighted grappling fallback (GFW) and experience despite Bueno Silva showing clear cardio decline and low urgency in her last fights.
Cavalcanti’s composure and range control were underestimated. She effectively nullified clinch and slowed Silva’s pace.
Recent Rout/Stalled Performance Check (RRSP) should have triggered stronger penalties; Silva’s prior fight already exposed her stagnation.
RRSP Amplification: Increase penalty range from −8% → −10% when the same “stalled output” pattern reappears in consecutive fights.
Female Fly/Bantam Adjustment (New Rule): For grapplers with known cardio fades, penalize −6% additional CSI beyond the base if their finish rate <50% at UFC level.
Range Control Awareness (RCA): Add +5% to composed counter strikers who successfully neutralized grapplers in previous bouts (like Cavalcanti).
Prediction: Simón by Decision
Reality: Barcelos by Decision
The model relied on Wrestler Persistence Coefficient (WPC) and Cardio Sustain Index (CSI) while ignoring Barcelos’ technical counter-wrestling and jab accuracy.
Simón’s recent performances show pace hesitation and declining confidence after taking damage — not factored strongly enough.
Barcelos, though aging, still has elite-level timing; the Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA) penalty was too heavy given stylistic matchup.
Confidence Rebound Modifier (CRM): Fighters coming off controlled losses (not knockouts) regain +5% if historically durable and well-conditioned. Barcelos fits that profile.
Aging Curve Adjustment: Reduce ACA penalty by 50% when fighter’s accuracy ≥45% and opponent’s striking defense <60%.
Takedown Neutralization Bonus (TNB): +5% for fighters with proven counter-wrestling and balance, even if older or less active.
Prediction: Bonfim by Decision or KO/TKO (Round 2–3)
Reality: Padilla by KO/TKO
Severe Durability Integrity Check (DIC) oversight: Bonfim’s confidence and chin degradation post-KO loss weren’t properly penalized.
Model expected Bonfim’s rebound via “Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB),” but he didn’t display any tactical correction.
Power undervaluation: Padilla’s finishing ability was underrated due to limited UFC sample size.
Post-KO Composure Penalty (PKCP): Apply −8% for fighters returning from KO within 9–12 months unless they’ve shown improved defensive metrics.
Underestimated Finisher Compensation (UFC): Grant +5% volatility and +4% finish probability to debuting fighters with ≥60% regional KO rate when facing recently KO’d opponents.
EMB Gatekeeping: Only trigger Evolution Momentum Bonus after a measurable statistical improvement (≥10%) in accuracy or defense in the last two fights.
Prediction: Randy Brown by Decision or late KO/TKO
Reality: Gabriel Bonfim by KO/TKO
The model correctly identified volatility but overvalued Brown’s durability recovery and composure after multiple knockdowns in recent fights.
Bonfim’s aggression and striking improvements post-loss weren’t credited — the model assumed a mental collapse rather than an adjustment.
Brown’s Predictable Counter Timing got exposed early; he’s slower to start than the model assumed.
Aggression Recovery Index (ARI): Fighters rebounding from first loss with early finish history get +6% power and +4% pace confidence if camp reports and weigh-ins show aggression return.
Slow Starter Adjustment (SSA): −5% for counter-based fighters who routinely lose Round 1 against fast starters (Brown archetype).
Rebound Finisher Multiplier (RFM): +6% finish probability when a previously dominant finisher returns after first loss and opponent has DIC <90%.
Post-KO Composure Penalty (PKCP) – −8% confidence reduction for fighters returning from KO within 9–12 months unless defensive metrics improved.
Aggression Recovery Index (ARI) – +6% finish probability for rebound prospects showing restored aggression post-loss.
Confidence Rebound Modifier (CRM) – +5% for durable veterans rebounding from decision losses.
Range Control Awareness (RCA) – +5% for composed distance fighters who neutralize pressure grapplers.
Takedown Neutralization Bonus (TNB) – +5% for proven counter-wrestlers vs pace grapplers.
Female Grappler Energy Drop Rule (FGEDR) – Additional −6% CSI penalty to female grapplers with <50% UFC finish rate when facing composed strikers.
Slow Starter Adjustment (SSA) – −5% for counter fighters who regularly lose opening rounds against fast starters.
Rebound Finisher Multiplier (RFM) – +6% finishing probability when proven finisher returns after first loss with mental reset indicators.