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Prediction: Ribas by Decision
Reality: Ricci by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Underestimated Ricci’s offensive striking improvements and willingness to push pace.
Overestimated Ribas’s durability — she’s shown cracks before (Fiorot, Rodriguez), and this matchup should’ve flagged that vulnerability.
Ribas was expected to be the bigger fighter, but Ricci’s physicality and aggression offset that advantage.
Model correction:
Downgrade Ribas’s striking durability when facing pressure strikers with good speed.
Increase scoring weight for Ricci’s recent aggression and improved striking depth.
Penalize Ribas when facing opponents who can neutralize clinch work and force range striking.
Prediction: Blackshear by Decision
Reality: Grant by Decision
What went wrong:
Overvalued Blackshear’s grappling pressure without adjusting for Grant’s awkward, high-tempo scrambles and veteran chaos.
Grant’s unpredictability and striking volume were undervalued against methodical grapplers.
Assumed Blackshear would pursue a dominant grappling path consistently — he did not.
Model correction:
Increase volatility markers when facing fighters like Grant who thrive in chaos and can win close rounds with activity.
Reduce win probability for grapplers who don’t commit to takedowns and lack consistent control time.
Improve minute-winning calibration for fighters like Grant who swing rounds with optics and volume, even off-balance.
Prediction: Leal by Decision
Reality: Salikhov by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Underestimated Salikhov’s ability to time counters even late in career.
Assumed Leal’s pressure would wear down Salikhov — but Salikhov remained composed and found clean shots early.
Did not account for Leal’s predictable entries and lack of head movement, which exposed him.
Model correction:
Re-weight age-related decline more cautiously when fighter is known for precision counter-striking (like Salikhov).
Penalize forward-pressing strikers who enter on centerline without consistent defensive structure (Leal).
Adjust volatility upward when facing fighters with Salikhov’s one-shot KO ability, even if output is low.
Prediction: Krylov by Submission (Round 2)
Reality: Guskov by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Failed to downgrade Krylov’s chin and durability after recent KO loss (Spann).
Overestimated his likelihood to pursue and secure takedowns safely — he engaged in dangerous range exchanges instead.
Guskov’s explosive KO power was appropriately noted but not fully weighted in early round scenarios.
Model correction:
Downgrade fighters coming off KO losses in the last 4–6 months when facing power punchers.
Increase volatility and early KO equity for fighters like Guskov who specialize in Round 1 finishes.
Penalize grapplers like Krylov who engage in striking-first gameplans without setup.
Prediction: Whittaker by Decision or KO/TKO (late)
Reality: de Ridder by Decision
What went wrong:
Underestimated de Ridder’s durability, range management, and grappling threat.
Assumed Whittaker could stuff all grappling entries and impose pace — but de Ridder’s clinch control and top threat neutralized offense.
Failed to adjust enough for RDR’s improvement since his last loss and experience advantage in style control.
Model correction:
Increase probability for control-heavy grapplers who can stall volume-based strikers.
Reduce win probability for strikers when facing opponents who can force clinch breaks and slow tempo.
Re-evaluate assumptions about RDR’s decline — he’s more durable and composed than previously modeled.