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Prediction: Mantas Kondratavičius by KO/TKO, Round 2 (58% winner confidence) Actual result: Andre Petroski by TKO, Round 2, 4:39
Kondratavičius started sharply, but the fight shifted once Petroski turned to wrestling. We had identified Kondratavičius’s trouble in the clinch and his late takedown against Antonio Trocoli. We gave those observations too little weight against a more proven wrestler and framed Petroski’s likely wins as a decision or submission. That missed a direct route from top control to a stoppage by strikes. Future adjustment: When a prospect has already struggled in the positions an opponent reliably creates, account for how quickly that opponent can take over and what offense they can produce from there. UFC prelim recap
Prediction: Gabriel Lorenco by KO/TKO, Round 1 (56% winner confidence) Actual result: Thomas Petersen by TKO, Round 3, 4:47
Lorenco repeatedly hurt Petersen in the first round, so the forecast correctly identified the early danger. Petersen survived, dropped Lorenco in the second, then took him down and finished with ground strikes in the third. We had identified a later Petersen TKO as a plausible outcome, but underweighted his ability to turn the fight around with his hands before bringing his wrestling into play. Future adjustment: Separate a fighter’s chance of hurting an opponent early from the chance of finishing them. Give the opponent’s comeback route real weight when the early finisher has limited evidence beyond Round 1. UFC prelim recap
Prediction: Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO, Round 2 (68% winner confidence) Actual result: Ollie Schmid by unanimous decision (29–28 on all three cards)
Schmid was the more active and effective striker through the first two rounds. Nakamura rallied in the third, after Schmid had built a lead. We acknowledged that Schmid’s debut loss came on short notice, yet still leaned too heavily on that loss when assigning high confidence. We also treated Nakamura’s late offense as a finishing edge without giving enough weight to Schmid’s ability to win two rounds before it surfaced. Future adjustment: Give a full-camp opponent a concrete round-winning scenario and require more than a single short-notice defeat to support a high-confidence pick against them. UFC prelim recap
Prediction: Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO, Round 3 (63% winner confidence) Actual result: Johnny Walker by TKO, Round 3, 2:27
Walker attacked the legs early. Cortes Acosta pressured effectively in the second round, but Walker landed a high kick in the third and followed up for the stoppage. We recognized Walker’s kicks and knees but concentrated his finishing threat in the opening rounds. That left too little room for him to change targets and finish after Cortes Acosta had found success. Future adjustment: Assess kick defense and changing targets across rounds. A durable record supports a survival estimate, but the opponent’s specific weapons and recent form at the new weight should carry meaningful weight. UFC main card recap