Prediction: Loma by Decision (Confident value underdog)
Reality: Thainara by Decision
Why I was confident:
UFC experience gap (8 fights vs debutant).
Belief that Loma’s clinch game and improved wrestling defense would frustrate a newcomer.
What went wrong:
I underestimated Thainara’s wrestling persistence and ability to actually hold position. Loma has improved TDD, but she still struggles once pinned down.
Overweighted “experience gap” without enough penalty for size/strength disparity — Thainara being the bigger, more physical athlete gave her control.
Correction: Grappler debutants who lean on physical control can succeed against undersized vets, even if less UFC-tested. I need to downgrade undersized fighters against debut wrestlers who carry clear physical advantages.
Prediction: Bedoya by Decision
Reality: Mullarkey won
Why I was confident:
Bedoya’s cleaner striking and durability seemed suited to exploit Mullarkey’s porous defense and declining chin.
What went wrong:
Mullarkey fought a disciplined, patient gameplan instead of chaotic brawling. He didn’t give Bedoya clean counters and controlled range better than expected.
I over-penalized Mullarkey’s durability curve without weighting his stylistic adjustments and fight IQ improvement.
Correction: When analyzing “declining durability fighters,” I need to consider whether they’ve adjusted style to protect themselves, instead of assuming they’ll fight the same way.
Prediction: Petroski by Decision
Reality: Rowston by KO/TKO
Why I was confident:
Petroski’s proven wrestling and UFC experience; Rowston still untested defensively.
What went wrong:
I underrated Petroski’s cardio collapse pattern. He slows dramatically if takedowns don’t land clean.
Rowston’s size and striking range punished Petroski once the wrestling stalled.
Overconfidence in Petroski’s “safe wrestling edge” despite a history of slowing and getting finished.
Correction: Automatically downgrade pressure wrestlers with documented cardio issues when facing long strikers — even if the striker is raw, they have finishing upside late.
Prediction: Bellato by Submission (High Confidence)
Reality: Stirling by Decision
Why I was confident:
Bellato’s grappling edge, UFC experience from DWCS, and Stirling’s porous defense seemed like a mismatch.
What went wrong:
Bellato didn’t impose grappling — Stirling’s pressure striking and toughness forced a brawl.
I overvalued Bellato’s submission threat without properly weighting his defensive lapses on the feet. He can be hit clean, and Stirling thrives in chaos.
Overconfidence flagged this as “safe,” when in reality Bellato’s volatility (both hittable and opportunistic) makes him a swing fighter, not a lock.
Correction: Grapplers with opportunistic subs but shaky striking defense should be marked high volatility, not high confidence. Never “safe.”
Prediction: Campbell by KO/TKO (Round 2)
Reality: Nolan by Submission
Why I was confident:
Campbell’s pressure/chaos style looked perfect to exploit Nolan’s defensive lapses.
What went wrong:
I ignored Nolan’s ability to adjust with grappling — he took the fight to the mat and capitalized.
Assumed Nolan would stick to long-range striking, leaving him vulnerable, instead of showing layered development in grappling.
Correction: Young prospects (like Nolan) can evolve fast — don’t lock them into old archetypes. If they show new tools (e.g., wrestling, subs), factor that in as a live path.
Loma vs Thainara – Ignored size/strength mismatch despite experience gap.
Mullarkey vs Bedoya – Overvalued decline narrative, undervalued stylistic adjustment.
Petroski vs Rowston – Didn’t punish known cardio risk enough vs long striker.
Bellato vs Stirling – Misclassified a volatile grappler as “safe.”
Nolan vs Campbell – Didn’t account for rapid evolution of young fighters adding new tools.
✅ Corrections to Apply Going Forward
Undersized vets vs physical wrestler debutants → downgrade vet, even with experience edge.
Durability-decline narratives must be balanced with stylistic adaptations.
Pressure wrestlers with cardio issues = red flag, especially vs long strikers.
Opportunistic grapplers with shaky striking → classify as volatile, not safe.
Prospects evolve fast — update archetype weights when they show new layers (grappling, composure, etc.).