UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

1. Loma Lookboonme vs Alexia Thainara

Prediction: Loma by Decision (Confident value underdog)

Reality: Thainara by Decision

• Why I was confident:

  • UFC experience gap (8 fights vs debutant).

  • Belief that Loma’s clinch game and improved wrestling defense would frustrate a newcomer.

• What went wrong:

  • I underestimated Thainara’s wrestling persistence and ability to actually hold position. Loma has improved TDD, but she still struggles once pinned down.

  • Overweighted “experience gap” without enough penalty for size/strength disparity — Thainara being the bigger, more physical athlete gave her control.

• Correction: Grappler debutants who lean on physical control can succeed against undersized vets, even if less UFC-tested. I need to downgrade undersized fighters against debut wrestlers who carry clear physical advantages.

2. Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya

Prediction: Bedoya by Decision

Reality: Mullarkey won

• Why I was confident:

  • Bedoya’s cleaner striking and durability seemed suited to exploit Mullarkey’s porous defense and declining chin.

• What went wrong:

  • Mullarkey fought a disciplined, patient gameplan instead of chaotic brawling. He didn’t give Bedoya clean counters and controlled range better than expected.

  • I over-penalized Mullarkey’s durability curve without weighting his stylistic adjustments and fight IQ improvement.

• Correction: When analyzing “declining durability fighters,” I need to consider whether they’ve adjusted style to protect themselves, instead of assuming they’ll fight the same way.

3. Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski

Prediction: Petroski by Decision

Reality: Rowston by KO/TKO

• Why I was confident:

  • Petroski’s proven wrestling and UFC experience; Rowston still untested defensively.

• What went wrong:

  • I underrated Petroski’s cardio collapse pattern. He slows dramatically if takedowns don’t land clean.

  • Rowston’s size and striking range punished Petroski once the wrestling stalled.

  • Overconfidence in Petroski’s “safe wrestling edge” despite a history of slowing and getting finished.

• Correction: Automatically downgrade pressure wrestlers with documented cardio issues when facing long strikers — even if the striker is raw, they have finishing upside late.

4. Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato

Prediction: Bellato by Submission (High Confidence)

Reality: Stirling by Decision

• Why I was confident:

  • Bellato’s grappling edge, UFC experience from DWCS, and Stirling’s porous defense seemed like a mismatch.

• What went wrong:

  • Bellato didn’t impose grappling — Stirling’s pressure striking and toughness forced a brawl.

  • I overvalued Bellato’s submission threat without properly weighting his defensive lapses on the feet. He can be hit clean, and Stirling thrives in chaos.

  • Overconfidence flagged this as “safe,” when in reality Bellato’s volatility (both hittable and opportunistic) makes him a swing fighter, not a lock.

• Correction: Grapplers with opportunistic subs but shaky striking defense should be marked high volatility, not high confidence. Never “safe.”

5. Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell

Prediction: Campbell by KO/TKO (Round 2)

Reality: Nolan by Submission

• Why I was confident:

  • Campbell’s pressure/chaos style looked perfect to exploit Nolan’s defensive lapses.

• What went wrong:

  • I ignored Nolan’s ability to adjust with grappling — he took the fight to the mat and capitalized.

  • Assumed Nolan would stick to long-range striking, leaving him vulnerable, instead of showing layered development in grappling.

• Correction: Young prospects (like Nolan) can evolve fast — don’t lock them into old archetypes. If they show new tools (e.g., wrestling, subs), factor that in as a live path.

Summary of Confidence Failures

• Loma vs Thainara – Ignored size/strength mismatch despite experience gap.

• Mullarkey vs Bedoya – Overvalued decline narrative, undervalued stylistic adjustment.

• Petroski vs Rowston – Didn’t punish known cardio risk enough vs long striker.

• Bellato vs Stirling – Misclassified a volatile grappler as “safe.”

• Nolan vs Campbell – Didn’t account for rapid evolution of young fighters adding new tools.

✅ Corrections to Apply Going Forward

1. Undersized vets vs physical wrestler debutants → downgrade vet, even with experience edge.

2. Durability-decline narratives must be balanced with stylistic adaptations.

3. Pressure wrestlers with cardio issues = red flag, especially vs long strikers.

4. Opportunistic grapplers with shaky striking → classify as volatile, not safe.

5. Prospects evolve fast — update archetype weights when they show new layers (grappling, composure, etc.).