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Prediction: Almakhan
Reality: Topuria by Decision
Underestimated Topuria’s durability and composure under pressure.
Almakhan’s pressure did not break him; instead, Topuria dealt with it well, stayed responsible, and countered effectively.
Overestimated Almakhan’s ability to sustain volume vs disciplined counterstriking.
Almakhan slowed down more than expected. His pressure wasn’t as structured and Topuria’s counters were consistently cleaner.
Underweighted Topuria’s defensive grappling and balance.
Topuria was much harder to drag into extended scrambles than tape suggested.
Misread physicality difference.
Almakhan looked less physically dominant than projected; Topuria held his ground in the clinch and mid-range.
Pressure prospects must show the ability to maintain pace against sharp, composed counterstrikers, not just mid-tier opponents.
When the more experienced fighter shows quality defensive grappling, the advantage of pure pace diminishes sharply.
Add stronger weighting for disciplined fighters who don’t break under pressure (CUPM expansion).
Add “Pressure Reliability Check”: downgrade pressure fighters who haven’t proven their style against top-level defensive technicians.
Prediction: Izagakhmaev
Reality: Dalby by Decision
Underestimated Dalby’s anti-wrestling durability and cardio.
He survived the early wrestling far better than expected and did not fade.
Overestimated Izagakhmaev’s ability to sustain control.
His top control wasn’t as dominant, and Dalby kept scrambling up—violating the assumed “control edge.”
Underappreciated Dalby’s late-round rallies and output.
Dalby historically performs extremely well in later rounds, and this pattern held true again.
Failed to account for road-warrior judging optics.
Dalby is known for winning close optics when he creates chaotic late momentum.
Increase valuation of fighters with proven late-round rally patterns (e.g., Dalby, Caceres, Yair).
Apply a Scramble Efficiency Modifier that penalizes grapplers who rely on top control but haven’t controlled durable scramblers historically.
Add a “Veteran Late Surge Bonus” for fighters who consistently outwork opponents R2-R3 even when losing R1.
Reduce confidence in wrestlers with no strong damage output (CDW refinement).
Prediction: Ulanbekov
Reality: Horiguchi by Submission (Round 3)
Underestimated Horiguchi’s scramble danger and submission opportunism.
Horiguchi capitalized on a mistake in a scramble — something the model didn’t weight heavily enough.
Underweighted aging curve adjustments for elite technicians.
Horiguchi is aging, but his skill and timing remain world-class. The model applied aging/durability penalties too mechanically.
Overestimated Ulanbekov’s top-control reliability.
His positional security wasn’t strong enough; he was reversed and out-scrambled.
Striking dynamics misread.
Horiguchi’s speed and angles created more issues for Ulanbekov than expected, forcing sloppy grappling entries.
Increase weighting for elite scrambling veterans with decades of high-level experience (Horiguchi, Cejudo, Figgy-type profiles).
Add Submission Opportunism Bonus (SOB) for fighters with a history of finishing scrambles.
Reduce probability for control-heavy grapplers who lack consistent finishing threat vs elite scramblers.
Update Aging Curve rules: elite technical fighters should receive delayed or softened aging penalties.