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Prediction: Rowe KO/TKO or Decision
Reality: Lebosnoyani Decision
Error Type: Control Overconfidence Misread
We overvalued:
Rowe’s reach and late rally equity
KO threat from range
We undervalued:
Early takedown optics
Control minutes accumulation
Lebosnoyani likely:
Secured early positional control
Won rounds via CDW (Control > Damage)
Neutralized Rowe’s striking rhythm early
Control Overconfidence Penalty (COP)
If first two rounds are control-heavy and striker does not clearly punish entries → shift probability faster toward control fighter.
No more “assumed comeback” equity unless visible damage is present.
Prediction: Cornolle Decision
Reality: Edwards Submission
Error Type: Women’s Submission Volatility Underweight
We applied:
Decision bias tightening (correct in general)
We failed to:
Properly weight scramble submission volatility
Recognize opportunistic submission pathways
Even if Edwards was perceived as a striker, women’s divisions often produce scramble-based submissions when defensive grappling gaps appear.
Women’s Scramble Submission Alert (WSSA)
Increase submission volatility in women’s fights when:
Volume striker vs opportunistic grappler
Defensive grappling not clearly validated
Decision bias no longer auto-dominant.
Prediction: Ige Decision
Reality: Costa KO/TKO
Error Type: Veteran Durability Regression Miss
We assumed:
Ige durability intact
Composure advantage > explosiveness
We ignored:
Accumulated damage history
Youth explosion vs aging compact striker dynamic
This is the same pattern seen in several 2025 failures:
Veteran durability erodes before statistics show collapse.
Veteran Durability Regression Flag (VDRF)
Apply −6% to durable veterans with visible damage accumulation even without recent KO losses.
Explosive younger opponents now receive stronger early KO weighting.
Prediction: Neal KO/TKO or Decision
Reality: Medić KO/TKO
Error Type: Counter-Punch Bias
We leaned on:
PCR (counter vs blitz)
Compact technique advantage
We underestimated:
Early Chaos Reweighting
Speed differential
Initiation advantage
When explosive fighter initiates with speed + power, counters are irrelevant if reaction window is shortened.
Early Chaos Reweighting (ECR v2)
Increase early KO equity for explosive initiator by +5%
Do not auto-favor technical counter puncher.
Prediction: Hernandez Decision
Reality: Strickland KO/TKO
Error Type: Pressure Break Misread
We assumed:
Hernandez grappling persistence would hold over 15 minutes.
We ignored:
Strickland’s defensive structure
The possibility that Hernandez fails to trap early
If control is not established quickly, grappling equity collapses.
Pressure Break Test (PBT)
If pressure grappler fails to trap and sustain clinch dominance in first 5 minutes → downgrade control confidence sharply.
No more automatic “eventual grind” assumptions.