UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo fail predictions analysis

1. Juliana Miller def. Ivana Petrovic (Decision)

Prediction: Ivana Petrovic by Decision

Result: Juliana Miller by Decision

What went wrong:

• Overestimated Petrovic’s defensive wrestling and footwork: Expected her to stuff Miller’s takedowns and control distance.

• Underestimated Miller’s grappling urgency and cardio: She applied relentless pressure and outworked Petrovic, who looked frozen at times.

• Miller’s improvement: She showed better takedown timing and positional control than in previous bouts.

Correction:

• Fighters with elite cardio and persistent grappling should not be dismissed based on striking flaws alone, especially against low-volume strikers.

• Downgrade fighters (like Petrovic) who freeze under pressure and lack urgency off their back.

2. Thomas Petersen def. Don’Tale Mayes (Decision)

Prediction: Don’Tale Mayes by TKO (Round 2 or 3)

Result: Thomas Petersen by Decision

What went wrong:

• Overvalued Mayes’ striking and TDD: Thought he could sprawl-and-brawl. Instead, Petersen controlled the wrestling exchanges.

• Underestimated Petersen’s ability to win minutes despite minimal striking.

Correction:

• Penalize big, low-output strikers with spotty takedown defense when facing cardio-heavy wrestlers.

• Recognize grind-heavy wrestlers as decision threats, especially when they aren’t finish-reliant.

3. Le Quang def. Gaston Bolanos (Submission)

Prediction: Gaston Bolanos by KO (Round 1 or 2)

Result: Le Quang by Submission

What went wrong:

• Ignored Bolanos’ historical grappling vulnerability: Even though flashy on the feet, he has no ground game.

• Underrated Le Quang’s game plan and composure: He exploited Bolanos’ predictable striking and poor ground awareness.

Correction:

• Heavily downgrade one-dimensional strikers with known TDD issues against debutants with grappling backgrounds and measured styles.

4. Gillian Robertson def. Marina Rodriguez (TKO)

Prediction: Marina Rodriguez by TKO (Round 2 or 3)

Result: Gillian Robertson by TKO

What went wrong:

• Expected Marina to dominate striking range and avoid the mat: Assumed her clinch work and TDD would hold.

• Robertson struck first and hard: Surprising power and pressure caught Rodriguez early, and she capitalized on the scramble.

Correction:

• Fighters known for grappling can still win with strikes if the opponent is vulnerable to early pressure and has poor defensive recovery.

• Account for volatility in fights where one fighter is declining and the other is still evolving.

5. Yana Santos def. Miesha Tate (Decision)

Prediction: Miesha Tate by Decision

Result: Yana Santos by Decision

What went wrong:

• Expected Tate to wrestle aggressively and show improved cardio: But she looked hesitant and was outworked.

• Yana fought with more control and accuracy than expected: Her jab and spacing neutralized Tate’s wrestling.

Correction:

• Don’t overestimate motivation-based narratives or past championship pedigree if recent performances show hesitation and fading pace.

• Recognize when a “washed” narrative is applied too early—Yana had the tools, just needed confidence and right opponent.

6. Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal (TKO)

Prediction: Bo Nickal by TKO or Decision

Result: Reinier de Ridder by TKO

What went wrong:

• Assumed Bo would dominate early with pressure wrestling and avoid danger.

• RDR showed massive improvement in striking and was more composed than ever before. Bo looked one-dimensional, didn’t adapt under pressure, and folded.

Correction:

• Don’t rely on untested prospects in big step-ups without confirming their ability to absorb adversity.

• Consider champion-level opponents with dynamic submission and striking threats as legitimate even after KO losses — especially when they’ve had time to recover.