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Prediction: Bleda by decision or submission
Reality: Horth by KO/TKO
Primary error: Overconfidence in wrestling persistence without strike-entry safety validation
Correctly identified:
Bleda’s WPC (chain wrestling)
Physicality advantage
Grappling fallback
But the model failed to properly gate those advantages behind safe entry conditions.
Bleda’s takedown entries were linear, slow, and naked
Horth punished the first bad level change
Once Bleda got hurt, the grappling never materialized
Predictive Counterstrike Risk (PCR) was underweighted
→ Wrestlers shooting from range vs compact strikers with power should trigger higher early KO risk
Entry Quality Check was assumed, not proven
Female division volatility was understated when a grappler relies on a single path
NEW RULE (critical):
WPC does NOT activate unless the grappler has demonstrated either:
Safe strike-to-shot setups
Or successful cage-clinch initiation against similar opponents
If entries are raw → downgrade grappler win probability by 8–12% and increase early KO volatility.
Prediction: Gibson by decision or late submission
Reality: King Green by decision
Primary error: Overrating “structural pressure” and underrating veteran adaptability + round-stealing ability
Leaned into:
Gibson’s composure
Grappling fallback
Cardio reliability
But the model misread the fight dynamic as pressure-dominant instead of tempo-contested.
King Green:
Neutralized pressure with movement and timing
Won exchanges without committing
Controlled optics and rhythm
Gibson failed to force grappling consistently
No meaningful damage or control to outweigh King’s striking optics
Veteran Tempo Control (VTC) was underweighted
Control vs Damage Weight (CDW) favored Green more than expected
Gibson lacked validated pressure against a savvy veteran
NEW RULE:
Against high-IQ veterans with strong rhythm control, pressure fighters must prove cage-trapping ability, not just forward motion.
If pressure is reactive instead of imposing → downgrade pressure reliability by 6–8%.
Also:
Increase Decision Equity Bonus for veterans who:
Avoid damage
Control range
Steal close rounds consistently
Prediction: Charrière by KO/TKO or decision
Reality: Costa by KO/TKO
Primary error: Overweighting “momentum narrative” and underweighting opponent-specific durability and chaos risk
Correctly flagged:
Charrière’s aggression
Physicality
Recent form
But the model over-assumed forward pressure dominance and ignored Costa’s chaos durability profile.
Charrière overextended in exchanges
Costa absorbed early pressure and returned fire with cleaner power
Costa’s finish equity in chaos was underestimated
Chaos Durability Index (CDI) for Costa was too low
Aggression Reversal Penalty (ARP2) should have hit Charrière harder
Costa had underdog counter-chaos upside that wasn’t fully priced in
NEW RULE:
When BOTH fighters thrive in chaos,
favor the one with proven durability + shorter strikes, not the aggressor.
Aggressive pressure fighters must show:
Defensive discipline
Exit awareness
Otherwise apply ARP2 −8% and raise KO volatility.
All three misses share the same structural issue:
Instead of verifying them under opponent-specific resistance
It was assumed:
Wrestling would materialize
Pressure would compound
Aggression would dominate
But reality showed:
Entry denial
Tempo disruption
Chaos reversals
These should now be mandatory checks before finalizing picks:
Before favoring wrestlers:
Have they shown safe entries vs similar strikers?
If NO → downgrade grappling advantage 8–12%
Veterans who:
Avoid damage
Control range
Win optics
Get +5–7% decision equity vs unproven pressure fighters
If both fighters thrive in chaos:
Favor durability + counter efficiency
Penalize aggression-first profiles
Pressure without cage control ≠ effective pressure
Downgrade if opponent has proven lateral movement + composure