UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Taira

1. Danny Silva vs Kevin Vallejos

Prediction: Silva by Decision

Reality: Vallejos by Decision

✅ What was correct:

• Vallejos had the technical striking advantage.

• Early rounds were competitive, but Silva pressured and tried to steal moments.

❌ What went wrong:

• Underestimated Vallejos’ composure under pressure. He didn’t fold under Silva’s forward movement and stayed sharp even late.

• Silva’s volume wasn’t enough to clearly win rounds. Despite walking forward, his output was less meaningful.

• Judging favored cleaner, crisper shots over aggression with less accuracy.

🔧 Update to logic:

• When predicting pressure fighters like Silva, don’t overvalue forward motion unless it’s paired with effective striking or takedowns.

• Boost fighters like Vallejos who maintain defensive structure under pressure and land clean counters.

• Recognize that in close fights, optics (clean strikes > aggression without damage) matter more than assumed.

2. Mateusz Rębecki vs Chris Duncan

Prediction: Rębecki by TKO (Round 2)

Reality: Duncan by Decision

✅ What was correct:

• Rębecki came out aggressive and had some early success.

• Fight was expected to be physical and gritty.

❌ What went wrong:

• Massive underestimation of Duncan’s durability and improvement. He survived early pressure and made Rębecki look predictable.

• Rębecki faded fast. Cardio was overestimated — Duncan’s wrestling defense and pressure wore him down.

• Duncan used superior tactics. He slowed the pace and adjusted to nullify Rębecki’s bursty style.

🔧 Update to logic:

• Penalize fighters like Rębecki who rely heavily on early explosion without proven 3-round pacing.

• Reward fighters like Duncan who show consistent cardio and have improved defensive wrestling.

• When an explosive striker fails to hurt an opponent early, their win probability should drop sharply in live prediction modeling.

🧠 Key Lessons to Apply:

• Do not overvalue pressure or aggression without effective control or clean damage.

• Reevaluate “explosive but inefficient” fighters (Rębecki-type) who haven’t shown depth in longer fights.

• Respect durability and composure under pressure — Duncan and Vallejos both benefited from it.