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Prediction: Carpenter by Decision (61 %)
Reality: Filho by Submission
Factor | What Happened | Error Source |
Grappling Weighting | Filho’s wrestling chains and back-takes were much cleaner than tape suggested. | GFW undervalued his positional control. |
Scramble Efficiency | Carpenter’s defensive scrambling collapsed once controlled. | Overestimated Carpenter’s anti-grappling. |
Pace/Pressure | Filho imposed tempo immediately; Carpenter never settled. | Model didn’t factor Filho’s first-minute blitz pattern. |
Scramble Resistance Coefficient (SRC) → New sub-factor under GFW: fighters who lose position once taken down in ≤15 sec get a −7 % penalty vs chain wrestlers.
Early Grappler Blitz Flag (EGBF) → Boost early-round submission equity (+5 %) for grapplers with ≥60 % of wins in R1–R2.
Slightly reduce “ABF” weight for developing strikers vs submission specialists (−3 %) until proven anti-grappling in UFC sample ≥ 2 fights.
Prediction: Ramos by Decision (62 %)
Reality: Ofli by Submission
Factor | What Happened | Error Source |
Fight IQ / Overconfidence | Ramos over-extended in scramble → caught. | Model lacked “reckless veteran” flag. |
Opponent Evolution | Ofli showed sharper grappling than regional tape. | ABF for underdogs undervalued. |
Ramos Decline | Cardio & urgency worse than projected. | UI penalty too small. |
Reckless Veteran Decay (RVD) → −6 % for fighters ≥10 UFC bouts who lose by sub or KO in last 3 yrs and show defensive lapses.
Underdog Skill Expansion (USE) → +5 % ABF bonus for debut/2nd-fight underdogs coming off sub or grapple finish regionally.
Urgency Index (UI) scaling tightened: drop from −4 % → −6 % when a fighter historically slows after R1 despite experience.
Prediction: Diniz by KO/TKO (76 %)
Reality: Pinto by KO/TKO
Factor | What Happened | Error Source |
Composure Reversal | Diniz panicked after first counter, poor chin reaction. | DIC over-weighted kickboxing durability. |
Underestimated Power | Pinto’s striking sharper and heavier than projected. | CUT logic undervalued chaos brawler KO equity. |
Ring Experience Translation | Diniz’s Glory striking didn’t translate under 4-oz gloves. | Model lacked “glove-transition volatility” flag. |
Glove Transition Volatility (GTV) → Apply +8 % volatility & −5 % durability confidence for ex-kickboxers ≤3 MMA fights.
Chaos Threat Multiplier (CTM) → +6 % finish probability for underdogs with ≥70 % 1R finishes vs composed strikers.
Durability Integrity Check (DIC) re-tune: must reference MMA-specific damage history, not kickboxing record.
New / Updated Factor | Description | Impact |
SRC | Measures scramble-survival time | Improves grappling outcome accuracy |
EGBF | Boosts fast-start submission threats | Fixes early-round sub underprediction |
RVD | Penalizes aging reckless vets | Prevents Ramos-type overconfidence errors |
USE | Rewards rapidly improving underdogs | Captures Ofli-like leaps |
GTV | Adds volatility for ex-kickboxers | Prevents Diniz-type misreads |
CTM | Enhances chaos brawler KO odds | Adjusts for unpredictable finishers |