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Prediction: Pereira by Decision
Reality: Rendón by Decision
What went wrong:
Overestimated Pereira’s ability to stuff takedowns.
Underestimated Rendón’s persistence with chain wrestling and control time.
Gave too much credit to Pereira’s striking without weighing Rendón’s proven grind-heavy style.
Correction:
Strongly upgrade cardio-heavy wrestlers with relentless clinch/takedown attempts, even if one-dimensional.
Penalize strikers who rely on distance striking but haven’t shown proven defensive grappling against UFC wrestlers.
Prediction: Costa by KO/TKO (Round 2)
Reality: Coria by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Assumed Costa’s UFC-tested power would overwhelm a prospect.
Undervalued Coria’s composure, technical striking, and ability to punish defensive lapses.
Ignored Costa’s defensive holes and tendency to overcommit.
Correction:
Do not automatically favor “proven” UFC fighters over composed, technical prospects.
Upgrade prospects who show measured striking, defensive responsibility, and cardio.
Downgrade explosive but defensively porous veterans against disciplined strikers.
Prediction: Medina by KO/TKO (Round 1–2)
Reality: Todorović by Submission
What went wrong:
Overfocused on Todorović’s chin issues while ignoring his grappling advantage.
Underestimated Todorović’s experience and ability to adjust with grappling when striking exchanges are risky.
Treated the fight as “KO or bust” instead of recognizing Todorović’s wider win conditions.
Correction:
Always check for grappling fallback paths in fighters with durability issues.
Flag fighters like Todorović who can switch to grappling as higher percentage than assumed.
Prediction: Lê Quang by Decision
Reality: Luna by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Assumed Luna’s porous defense would get punished instead of his chaos overwhelming Quang.
Overvalued Quang’s composure without real UFC testing.
Underestimated Luna’s pressure + power against an unproven opponent.
Correction:
Flag “untested newcomers” as high-risk when facing aggressive chaos fighters.
Value proven aggression/pace over theoretical composure in debut scenarios.
Prediction: Ferreira by Submission (Round 2–3)
Reality: Hernandez by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Expected Hernandez to fade after a fast start, but he maintained composure and landed clean early.
Underestimated Ferreira’s durability decline after recent wars and long layoff.
Overvalued veteran grappler’s cardio without acknowledging wear-and-tear.
Correction:
Heavily downgrade aging grapplers with recent damage when facing explosive strikers.
Volatility index for Hernandez needs boosting — his early KO path is more reliable than assumed.
Prediction: Stoltzfus by Decision
Reality: Gastelum by Decision
What went wrong:
Overcorrected for Gastelum’s decline, assuming mileage would cost him against a grinder.
Ignored the large gap in athleticism, speed, and skill level.
Undervalued Gastelum’s ability to win minutes with boxing and experience.
Correction:
Don’t over-fade veterans with proven class when the opponent is a mid-tier grinder with limited finishing upside.
Balance decline vs skill gap — not all declines erase advantages.
Prediction: Gordon by Decision
Reality: García by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Assumed Gordon’s composure and scrambling would neutralize García’s grind.
Ignored Gordon’s durability decline — he’s been hurt repeatedly in recent fights.
Underestimated García’s willingness to throw with power, not just wrestle.
Correction:
Downgrade veterans with visible durability issues, even if they’re technically sound.
Recognize when grinders add striking aggression — their finish threat increases.
Upgrade relentless wrestlers (Rendón archetype) — persistence matters even without finishing.
Don’t overvalue UFC experience — composed prospects (Coria, Quang-type) can expose defensive flaws.
Always check for grappling fallbacks in fighters with weak chins (Todorović lesson).
Boost chaos/pace fighters vs untested newcomers (Luna lesson).
Downgrade aging grapplers with recent damage vs explosive strikers (Ferreira lesson).
Balance veteran decline vs skill gap — don’t fade proven class against mid-tier grinders (Gastelum lesson).
Downgrade veterans with durability issues vs grinders who’ve added striking aggression (García lesson).