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Prediction: Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (R2)
Reality: Walker by Submission
Stop overrating Kennedy’s composure — his grappling and submission defense remain exploitable even against raw opponents.
Valter’s wildness isn’t just KO-chaos; his ability to surprise with opportunistic grappling must be weighted more.
Flag fighters like Kennedy with recent KO losses + poor ground game as high volatility against any finishing threat, even low-percentage ones.
Prediction: Tafa by KO/TKO
Reality: Tokkos by Submission
🧠 Updated Lessons:
Tafa’s defensive grappling is still unfixable at UFC level. The model previously gave him benefit of doubt based on physicality — this is now corrected.
Short-notice debutants with solid grappling must be upgraded when facing strikers with known TDD issues.
High-power strikers without defensive ground survival should be marked as “finishable by anyone with basic top control”.
Prediction: Landwehr by Decision
Reality: Charriere by KO/TKO
🧠 Updated Lessons:
Landwehr’s durability is declining — his wars are catching up. The model will now scale down his durability rating after repeated damage.
Charriere’s precision striking and body work now flagged as a serious threat to volume brawlers who absorb first to fire back.
Fighters relying on “grit-over-skill” in matchups against technical snipers now carry KO exposure tags.
Prediction: Kattar by Decision
Reality: Garcia by Decision
🧠 Updated Lessons:
Post-ACL fighters like Kattar are now automatically penalized for tempo and reactivity even if durable.
Garcia’s pressure is now correctly upgraded — he’s no longer just a KO-or-bust fighter.
Fighters with historically good defense (Kattar) but recent major injuries must now be treated as slower starters with greater risk of being outworked.
Prediction: Teixeira by KO/TKO
Reality: Lewis by KO/TKO
Never fade Lewis against low-experience brawlers unless they have clear control grappling and proven durability.
Teixeira’s win streak was overrated — the model now requires verified resistance-tested finishing for debuting power strikers.
Lewis must retain higher win probability in chaos fights against fighters with no composure under fire.
Increased penalties for KO losses within 12 months when facing submission or explosive threats.
Improved submission threat flags for brawlers with any wrestling or opportunistic ground history.
Downgrade aging pressure fighters with accumulating damage (Landwehr, Kattar).
Raise volatility score when striker with poor TDD faces even moderately competent grappler.
Enhance filters on debuting opponents: must pass composure test or have proven finishing tools vs resistance.