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Our prediction favored Melissa Croden by decision, primarily because of her superior striking consistency, recent momentum, and ability to generate damaging combinations. However, Chelsea Chandler secured a submission victory, demonstrating that her grappling posed a greater threat than anticipated. We underestimated Chandler’s ability to create meaningful submission opportunities despite her inconsistent offensive wrestling. The prediction placed too much emphasis on Croden’s striking advantages without sufficiently accounting for the possibility that Chandler could disrupt the fight through clinch exchanges and transitional grappling. This result highlights the importance of evaluating submission threats independently of a fighter’s overall wrestling consistency, particularly when physical pressure can create opportunities to finish a fight.
Our prediction favored Javad Mahjoub by second-round submission, largely because of his elite judo background, physical strength, and expected advantage in clinch exchanges. However, Joel Faglier secured a knockout victory, exposing the risks associated with translating specialized grappling credentials into MMA competition. We overestimated Mahjoub’s ability to establish his preferred positions while underestimating Faglier’s striking power and potential to capitalize on defensive openings. Although Mahjoub possessed a clear advantage in his primary discipline, successfully applying that advantage required navigating dangerous striking exchanges. This result reinforces that elite grappling credentials do not guarantee effective offensive control when an opponent possesses the power and timing to punish attempts to close distance.
Our prediction favored Julien Leblanc by decision because of his aggressive pressure, physicality, and perceived ability to control the pace across three rounds. However, Nick Galanti secured a submission victory, demonstrating that his finishing ability presented a more significant threat than our analysis anticipated. We placed too much confidence in Leblanc’s ability to convert forward pressure into effective offense while underestimating the submission opportunities that could emerge during grappling exchanges. Both fighters entered with relatively limited experience against high-level opposition, making the matchup inherently unpredictable. This result emphasizes that aggressive pressure does not necessarily translate into positional dominance and that developing fighters with credible submission skills can capitalize on relatively small defensive mistakes.
Our prediction favored Jhonata Diniz by second-round knockout because of his extensive kickboxing experience, technical striking, and powerful combinations. However, Tanner Boser secured a knockout victory, demonstrating that his speed, mobility, and offensive capabilities were more dangerous than anticipated. We overestimated the extent to which Diniz’s technical striking credentials would translate into superiority during MMA exchanges while undervaluing Boser’s experience and ability to capitalize on defensive openings. The analysis also placed excessive emphasis on Boser’s age and potential physical decline without sufficient evidence that his explosiveness had significantly deteriorated. This result highlights that superior offensive striking credentials do not necessarily translate into superior defense, particularly in heavyweight matchups where timing, movement, and a single damaging exchange can determine the outcome.
Our prediction favored Louis Jourdain by decision because of his offensive versatility, aggressive striking, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials. However, Timmy Cuamba secured a submission victory, revealing a significant weakness in our assessment of the grappling matchup. We treated Jourdain as the more dangerous submission threat while primarily evaluating Cuamba through his striking abilities and UFC experience. This approach underestimated Cuamba’s capacity to create and capitalize on grappling opportunities. Jourdain’s submission credentials were also given more predictive weight than his demonstrated ability to consistently establish dominant positions against higher-level opposition justified. This result reinforces the importance of evaluating both fighters’ finishing potential independently rather than assuming that the competitor with the stronger grappling résumé will necessarily control submission exchanges.
Our prediction favored Kyle Daukaus by second-round submission because of his technical grappling, dangerous submission game, and ability to capitalize on clinch and scrambling exchanges. However, Marc-André Barriault secured a knockout victory, demonstrating that his striking power and offensive pressure remained significant threats. We overestimated Daukaus’s ability to establish advantageous grappling positions while underestimating the risks he faced when attempting to close distance. The analysis also placed too much emphasis on Barriault’s previous stoppage losses and accumulated damage, creating an overly negative assessment of his current competitive capabilities. This result illustrates that a technical grappling advantage becomes considerably less valuable when an opponent can consistently threaten damaging strikes during entries and transitions. Barriault’s experience, physicality, and offensive capabilities deserved greater consideration.
Our prediction favored Erin Blanchfield by decision with 72% confidence, making this one of our strongest selections on the card. However, Jasmine Jasudavicius secured a decision victory, exposing an overreliance on Blanchfield’s elite-level experience, grappling credentials, and historical accomplishments. We underestimated Jasudavicius’s physical strength, tactical discipline, and ability to compete effectively across multiple phases of the fight. Although her wrestling and clinch abilities were recognized, the analysis assumed that Blanchfield’s superior scrambling and positional skills would largely neutralize those advantages. We also placed insufficient weight on the uncertainty surrounding Blanchfield’s inactivity and previous injury. This result demonstrates that experience against elite opposition does not automatically guarantee superiority against a physically strong, improving opponent with a competitive tactical approach. The most important lesson is that high-confidence predictions must account for the underdog’s realistic paths to victory rather than relying predominantly on historical achievements.