UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho

1. Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek

• Prediction: Tavares by Decision

• Reality: Bryczek by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• I leaned too heavily on Tavares’ durability and veteran composure, assuming he could absorb Bryczek’s pressure and coast with volume.

• Failed to account for aging durability decline — Tavares is 36+ with years of damage. His legendary toughness isn’t what it used to be, and Bryczek’s early power was undervalued.

Adjustment:

• Heavily downgrade aging veterans known for durability if they face fresh, aggressive punchers. Durability isn’t permanent, and past trends don’t guarantee present resilience.

2. Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters

• Prediction: Waters by Decision

• Reality: Patterson by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• Overlooked Patterson’s length-based striking and assumed his only major path was grappling. In reality, he matched Waters’ size and found striking opportunities.

• Underestimated Waters’ defensive lapses under pressure — Patterson’s volume and reach let him land clean.

Adjustment:

• When two rangy fighters meet, don’t assume one has a massive striking edge. Factor in how defensive flaws and mental lapses can swing the fight, especially when both are long fighters.

3. Harry Hardwick vs Kauê Fernandes

• Prediction: Hardwick by Decision

• Reality: Fernandes by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• Assumed Hardwick’s composure and steady output would neutralize Fernandes’ chaos.

• Ignored Fernandes’ explosive early KO potential — his win condition was undervalued even though I noted it. Hardwick’s slower start gave Fernandes the window.

Adjustment:

• Increase weight on early-round volatility when a chaos fighter meets a slow starter. Even if the disciplined fighter is favored long-term, the danger window is very real.

4. Marcin Tybura vs Ante Delija

• Prediction: Tybura by Decision

• Reality: Delija by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• Leaned on Tybura’s veteran savvy and ability to grind, while underestimating Delija’s boxing power.

• Tybura’s durability and ability to survive against strong strikers was overvalued — like Tavares, his mileage is catching up.

• Missed that Delija’s PFL competition level, while not UFC elite, still kept him sharp and dangerous in the opening rounds.

Adjustment:

• Penalize older heavyweights who rely on grindy decisions when matched with fresh, athletic punchers.

• At heavyweight, power equalizers must always be given higher weight than “veteran savvy” unless the veteran has shown recent durability against similar threats.

Key Lessons to Apply Going Forward

1. Durability Decline Adjustment – Aging veterans (Tavares, Tybura) must be downgraded when facing aggressive, powerful strikers.

2. Early Chaos Volatility – Fighters like Fernandes have to be credited with higher early KO probability, especially against slow starters.

3. Rangy Striker Dynamics – Don’t overrate one lanky fighter’s edge in striking against another (Patterson vs Waters). Defensive flaws and fight IQ gaps matter more than size parity.

4. Heavyweight Power Tax – At heavyweight, raw power should be weighted more heavily than veteran craft when the vet shows signs of decline.