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Prediction: Rowe by Decision or Submission
Reality: Ko by Decision
What went wrong:
Composure & Consistency Gap: Rowe’s low-output phases triggered the Urgency Index (UI) but weren’t penalized strongly enough.
Cardio Sustain Misread: Ko maintained pressure longer than projected; Rowe’s pace degraded after Round 1 (CSI underweighted).
Control vs Damage Misapplication: Ko’s cage control and steady volume outweighed Rowe’s isolated moments — CDW weight needed stronger scoring for sustained activity.
Correction: Increase UI penalty (−7%) for historically inconsistent round-winning activity, especially vs durable volume fighters.
Prediction: Vieira by Decision
Reality: Dumont by Decision
What went wrong:
Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT) not fully applied — Vieira’s output fell round-to-round.
Striking Defense Integrity (SDI) missed — Dumont’s counters consistently landed clean.
Gameplan Discipline (GDB) misread — Dumont executed with higher composure, while Vieira stalled.
Correction:
Apply PDT and SDI weighting more aggressively when fighters rely on positional control without damage.
Reward fighters with superior counter timing and stable output (ATB + CUPM synergy boost).
Prediction: Dumas by Decision or early KO
Reality: Johnson by Submission
What went wrong:
Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP) underestimated — Dumas’ entries were linear, easily countered by grappling transitions.
Durability Integrity Check (DIC) missed — Dumas panicked under pressure and folded fast.
Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW) not applied to Johnson — he had a legitimate submission path once fight hit the mat.
Correction:
Expand GFW to include mid-tier fighters showing proven opportunistic grappling.
Introduce Submission Reversal Alert (SRA): fighters with history of reversals or panicked scrambles get an additional −6% vulnerability tag.
Prediction: Dulgarian by Finish
Reality: Del Valle by Submission
What went wrong:
Overconfidence in Early Grappling Control — the model didn’t apply enough SRC and CTM volatility modifiers.
Defensive Composure Misread: Dulgarian overcommitted early; Del Valle reversed position with composure.
Reckless Prospect Syndrome: Early finish bias blinded model to risk of over-aggression.
Correction:
Add Aggression Reversal Penalty (ARP2): −8% for early blitz grapplers who haven’t proven control composure.
Increase CTM volatility (+8%) when a composed striker/sub grappler faces a one-dimensional pressure wrestler.
Prediction: Delija by Decision or late TKO
Reality: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP) miscalculated — Delija’s takedown setups were telegraphed.
Mobility Disruption Bonus (MDB) underapplied — Waldo’s lateral movement neutralized linear wrestling.
Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA): Delija’s slowdown wasn’t weighted enough; his reactions were visibly behind.
Correction:
Strengthen MDB (+7%) for mobile counter boxers vs linear wrestlers.
Expand ACA penalty (−10%) for wrestlers over 34 showing reduced entry speed.
Submission Reversal Alert (SRA):
−6% to fighters with history of being reversed or panicking in scrambles (e.g., Dumas, Dulgarian).
Aggression Reversal Penalty v2 (ARP2):
−8% to explosive grapplers who overextend without demonstrated control composure.
Enhanced UI Weighting:
Increase Urgency Index penalty to −7% when fighters consistently lose minutes due to inactivity.
Expanded Mobility Disruption Bonus (MDB+):
+7% for lateral-movement strikers vs straight-line wrestlers or clinch chasers.
ACA Precision Update:
−10% for wrestlers/grapplers over age 34 whose recent film shows slower entries or reduced chain speed.
Counter Efficiency Bonus (CEB):
+5% for precise counter-strikers landing ≥40% accuracy in last two fights (to capture fighters like Dumont, Del Valle).
GFW Expansion:
Apply +6% not only to elite grapplers but also to mid-tier fighters with proven opportunistic submission threat when opponents have poor scramble defense.
Summary:
These five fights exposed a clear bias: overestimating dominant grapplers’ control efficiency and underweighting composed counterfighters’ reversal potential.
The new rules — SRA, ARP2, MDB+, CEB, and GFW Expansion — correct that bias and rebalance future picks toward endurance, composure, and adaptive defense under pressure.