UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

❌ 1. Cody Brundage vs Eric McConico

Prediction: Brundage by KO/TKO (Round 1)

Reality: McConico by Decision

✅ What was correct:

• Brundage’s power and explosiveness make him most dangerous in the first round.

• Early KO threat was a realistic outcome if he landed clean.

❌ What went wrong:

• Overlooked McConico’s durability and defensive awareness early. He avoided the big early shots and settled into the fight.

• Brundage’s cardio and pacing issues resurfaced. Once he didn’t get the finish in Round 1, his activity and threat level dropped significantly.

• Underestimated McConico’s ability to win minutes. His output, positioning, and composure in R2/R3 let him bank rounds.

🔧 Update to logic:

• Fighters with a “front-loaded” style (huge early KO threat but fade if it doesn’t land) should see a sharper drop in win probability after the first 5 minutes.

• Give more weight to opponent durability + ability to recover when evaluating early KO picks.

• Avoid leaning heavily on a Round 1 finish unless fighter has shown a consistent ability to keep finishing pressure deep into fights.

❌ 2. Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez

Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision

Reality: Fili by Decision

✅ What was correct:

• Rodriguez is well-rounded and capable of winning decisions with volume and control.

• Expected a competitive fight likely to go the distance.

❌ What went wrong:

• Underestimated Fili’s experience advantage and in-fight adjustments. Fili stayed disciplined, avoided being backed into prolonged exchanges, and managed range well.

• Rodriguez’s output dipped at key moments. Fili capitalized with clean, visible shots that swayed the judges.

• Gave too much weight to Rodriguez’s momentum and too little to Fili’s history of showing up strong in competitive matchups against skilled but less seasoned opponents.

🔧 Update to logic:

• In closely matched decision-heavy fights, weigh veteran composure and adaptability more heavily.

• Recognize that when Rodriguez faces opponents who can keep the fight at range, his volume advantage can be neutralized.

• Adjust for the possibility that younger, surging fighters may underdeliver when forced to play a tactical range game.

🧠 Key Lessons to Apply:

1. For KO-reliant fighters, integrate fade factor after Round 1 into probability modeling.

2. Veteran fighters with proven adaptability should get an experience bonus in high-skill, low-finish matchups.

3. Reassess the “momentum bias” toward younger fighters — composure and round-winning habits often trump hype in close fights.