Prediction: Brundage by KO/TKO (Round 1)
Reality: McConico by Decision
Brundage’s power and explosiveness make him most dangerous in the first round.
Early KO threat was a realistic outcome if he landed clean.
Overlooked McConico’s durability and defensive awareness early. He avoided the big early shots and settled into the fight.
Brundage’s cardio and pacing issues resurfaced. Once he didn’t get the finish in Round 1, his activity and threat level dropped significantly.
Underestimated McConico’s ability to win minutes. His output, positioning, and composure in R2/R3 let him bank rounds.
Fighters with a “front-loaded” style (huge early KO threat but fade if it doesn’t land) should see a sharper drop in win probability after the first 5 minutes.
Give more weight to opponent durability + ability to recover when evaluating early KO picks.
Avoid leaning heavily on a Round 1 finish unless fighter has shown a consistent ability to keep finishing pressure deep into fights.
Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision
Reality: Fili by Decision
Rodriguez is well-rounded and capable of winning decisions with volume and control.
Expected a competitive fight likely to go the distance.
Underestimated Fili’s experience advantage and in-fight adjustments. Fili stayed disciplined, avoided being backed into prolonged exchanges, and managed range well.
Rodriguez’s output dipped at key moments. Fili capitalized with clean, visible shots that swayed the judges.
Gave too much weight to Rodriguez’s momentum and too little to Fili’s history of showing up strong in competitive matchups against skilled but less seasoned opponents.
In closely matched decision-heavy fights, weigh veteran composure and adaptability more heavily.
Recognize that when Rodriguez faces opponents who can keep the fight at range, his volume advantage can be neutralized.
Adjust for the possibility that younger, surging fighters may underdeliver when forced to play a tactical range game.
For KO-reliant fighters, integrate fade factor after Round 1 into probability modeling.
Veteran fighters with proven adaptability should get an experience bonus in high-skill, low-finish matchups.
Reassess the “momentum bias” toward younger fighters — composure and round-winning habits often trump hype in close fights.