UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen

1. Melissa Croden def. Tainara Lisboa (KO/TKO)

Predicted: Lisboa by Decision

Reality: Croden by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• Underestimated Croden’s physicality and power at range.

• Overestimated Lisboa’s defensive composure under reach disadvantage.

• Missed the early body-language signal that Lisboa freezes when out-jabbed — she loses confidence quickly.

• Model gap: striking-durability degradation wasn’t flagged; Lisboa had previously absorbed too much damage in the last two fights but wasn’t penalized.

Fix:

• Introduce Striking Defense Integrity (SDI) metric — penalize fighters who take ≥40% significant strike absorption in last 2 fights by −6%.

• Add Reach Control Efficiency (RCE) bonus (+5%) for long-limbed fighters vs shorter pressure strikers if TDD ≥70%.

2. Yousri Belgaroui def. Azamat Bekoev (KO/TKO)

Predicted: Bekoev by Decision

Reality: Belgaroui by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• Grappler control overestimated vs. high-impact striker.

• Ignored defensive entries: Bekoev telegraphs level changes, Belgaroui exploited that with a knee.

• Durability Integrity Check (DIC) not applied despite Bekoev absorbing heavy shots in previous bouts.

Fix:

• Add Predictive Counterstrike Risk (PCR): grapplers who shoot from outside vs. tall strikers with knee/elbow finish history receive −8% win probability.

• Modify Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW) to include “entry quality” not just control rate — sloppy entries = −5% additional penalty.

3. Djorden Santos def. Danny Barlow (Decision)

Predicted: Barlow by Decision

Reality: Santos by Decision

What went wrong:

• Underestimated Santos’ composure and cardio. The model tagged him as fading after R1; he instead maintained pace and mixed targets.

• Barlow’s output stagnated when pressured — model lacked a dynamic for untested fighters’ pacing under adversity.

Fix:

• Introduce Adversity Response Coefficient (ARC): fighters with ≤2 UFC fights and no proven comeback rounds lose −6% vs. pressure fighters with >50% finish rate.

• Recalibrate cardio baseline for Brazilian regional champions (historically higher than model assumed).

4. Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon Vera (Decision)

Predicted: Vera by KO/TKO (R3)

Reality: Zahabi by Decision

What went wrong:

• Overconfidence in Vera’s “slow starter but comeback” pattern.

• Zahabi’s measured style neutralized Vera’s rhythm, and Vera never switched pace.

• Missed aging curve acceleration: Vera now fights slower, less urgency.

Fix:

• Add Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT): for fighters 30+ with declining striking volume ≥15% over last 3 fights → −7% probability.

• Introduce Composure Disruption Sensitivity (CDS): apply −5% to slow-starter archetypes facing low-output counter technicians.

5. Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland (Decision)

Predicted: Holland by KO/TKO (R2)

Reality: Malott by Decision

What went wrong:

• Misjudged Holland’s motivation and focus.

• Overweighted durability and underweighted fight IQ variance — he coasted and let rounds slip.

• Malott’s game plan discipline exploited that.

Fix:

• Reinforce Motivational Volatility Index (MVI): for fighters with public statements of “not chasing titles” or inconsistent urgency → −6–8% expected performance.

• Add Gameplan Discipline Bonus (GDB): +5% for opponents with recent consistent adherence to strategy (Malott-type).

6. Brendan Allen def. Reinier de Ridder (KO/TKO)

Predicted: de Ridder by Decision

Reality: Allen by KO/TKO

What went wrong:

• Underestimated power parity and striking evolution in Allen.

• Ignored de Ridder’s fragile striking defense after Malykhin KO — chin degradation persisted.

• Model missed the “cross-sport carryover trauma” penalty.

Fix:

• Strengthen Reckless Veteran Decay (RVD) from −6% → −10% if last loss was KO within previous 12 months.

• Add Evolved Striker Bonus (ESB): +6% for fighters showing ≥20% increase in striking accuracy over last two fights.

• Adjust Grappling Priority Weighting (GPW): reduce overvaluation when opponent has 70% TDD + proven striking edge.

⚙️ Permanent Model Upgrades (Add to Core System Memory)

New/Updated Factors:

1. Striking Defense Integrity (SDI) – −6% for fighters absorbing ≥40% sig. strikes last 2 fights.

2. Reach Control Efficiency (RCE) – +5% for long strikers vs shorter pressure fighters (if TDD ≥70%).

3. Predictive Counterstrike Risk (PCR) – −8% for grapplers shooting from outside vs tall Muay Thai strikers.

4. Adversity Response Coefficient (ARC) – −6% for untested fighters (≤2 UFC bouts) facing pace/pressure.

5. Pace Degradation Trigger (PDT) – −7% for fighters with declining output ≥15% over last 3 bouts.

6. Composure Disruption Sensitivity (CDS) – −5% for slow-starter archetypes vs low-volume counter stylists.

7. Motivational Volatility Index (MVI) – −6–8% for inconsistent performers or “not title-focused” fighters.

8. Gameplan Discipline Bonus (GDB) – +5% for consistently strategic opponents.

9. Reckless Veteran Decay (RVD) expanded to −10% post-KO (≤12 months).

10. Evolved Striker Bonus (ESB) – +6% for measurable striking improvement trend.

11. Grappling Priority Weighting (GPW) recalibrated to penalize overreliance when facing evolved strikers.

✅ Summary Insight:

All six losses shared three roots — overtrust in past durability, underweighting opponent adaptation, and missing psychological decline cues.

These upgrades reinforce damage tracking, style evolution, and focus consistency, tightening the model toward the 75–80% accuracy target moving forward.