UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales failed predictions analysis

1. Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos

  • Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff by Decision or late TKO

  • Result: Mairon Santos by Decision

What went wrong:

  • Overestimated Sodiq’s edge in striking sharpness and experience. Santos not only hung with Yusuff but out-struck him with superior volume and cleaner combinations.

  • Underestimated Santos’ composure and cardio over three rounds. He didn’t fade, stayed defensively sound, and controlled the pace.

  • Yusuff’s output was too low to sway judges; he allowed himself to get picked apart in space instead of pressing the younger, less-tested fighter.

Model adjustment:

  • Downgrade high-level UFC experience when it’s paired with low volume and rhythm-based striking against active, fast-paced newcomers.

  • Flag fighters like Yusuff who start slow and allow opponents to build confidence in round 1 as high-risk in matchups vs active, composed debutants.

  • Increase weighting for speed + volume when facing a low-output veteran, even if the vet has better résumé.

2. Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews

  • Prediction: Connor Matthews by Decision or Submission (Round 2)

  • Result: Yadier del Valle by Submission (Round 1)

What went wrong:

  • Completely misread the grappling edge — del Valle submitted the grappler in round 1, flipping the script.

  • Underestimated del Valle’s ground game and finishing instincts. Assumed he was just a striker based on regional footage.

  • Overestimated Matthews’ ability to control grappling exchanges, especially early. He got too comfortable and left himself exposed.

Model adjustment:

  • Never assume a fighter without extensive UFC footage is a one-dimensional striker — require deeper validation before concluding grappling deficiency.

  • Flag fighters like Matthews with early-career submission wins over weak opponents as unproven if they haven’t been tested defensively under fire.

  • Penalize grapplers who rely on control over explosiveness, especially if they’re not proven submission threats against dynamic opponents.

3. Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa

  • Prediction: Tainara Lisboa by Split Decision

  • Result: Luana Santos by Unanimous Decision

What went wrong:

  • Underappreciated Santos’ improvements in takedown defense and composure under clinch pressure.

  • Lisboa couldn’t establish her clinch game, and Santos outworked her from range with speed and movement.

  • Assumed Lisboa’s physicality would break Santos’ structure, but it was Santos who dictated range and tempo.

Model adjustment:

  • Upgrade fast, composed strikers with improving grappling when facing clinch-heavy opponents who lack takedown chains or dynamic shots.

  • Penalize fighters like Lisboa who rely on static clinch positions and physicality without volume.

  • Recognize the “young, improving athlete” factor: Santos had shown rapid development between fights and deserved a higher volatility rating.

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales failed predictions analysis | Fight Analysis