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Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff by Decision or late TKO
Result: Mairon Santos by Decision
What went wrong:
Overestimated Sodiq’s edge in striking sharpness and experience. Santos not only hung with Yusuff but out-struck him with superior volume and cleaner combinations.
Underestimated Santos’ composure and cardio over three rounds. He didn’t fade, stayed defensively sound, and controlled the pace.
Yusuff’s output was too low to sway judges; he allowed himself to get picked apart in space instead of pressing the younger, less-tested fighter.
Model adjustment:
Downgrade high-level UFC experience when it’s paired with low volume and rhythm-based striking against active, fast-paced newcomers.
Flag fighters like Yusuff who start slow and allow opponents to build confidence in round 1 as high-risk in matchups vs active, composed debutants.
Increase weighting for speed + volume when facing a low-output veteran, even if the vet has better résumé.
Prediction: Connor Matthews by Decision or Submission (Round 2)
Result: Yadier del Valle by Submission (Round 1)
What went wrong:
Completely misread the grappling edge — del Valle submitted the grappler in round 1, flipping the script.
Underestimated del Valle’s ground game and finishing instincts. Assumed he was just a striker based on regional footage.
Overestimated Matthews’ ability to control grappling exchanges, especially early. He got too comfortable and left himself exposed.
Model adjustment:
Never assume a fighter without extensive UFC footage is a one-dimensional striker — require deeper validation before concluding grappling deficiency.
Flag fighters like Matthews with early-career submission wins over weak opponents as unproven if they haven’t been tested defensively under fire.
Penalize grapplers who rely on control over explosiveness, especially if they’re not proven submission threats against dynamic opponents.
Prediction: Tainara Lisboa by Split Decision
Result: Luana Santos by Unanimous Decision
What went wrong:
Underappreciated Santos’ improvements in takedown defense and composure under clinch pressure.
Lisboa couldn’t establish her clinch game, and Santos outworked her from range with speed and movement.
Assumed Lisboa’s physicality would break Santos’ structure, but it was Santos who dictated range and tempo.
Model adjustment:
Upgrade fast, composed strikers with improving grappling when facing clinch-heavy opponents who lack takedown chains or dynamic shots.
Penalize fighters like Lisboa who rely on static clinch positions and physicality without volume.
Recognize the “young, improving athlete” factor: Santos had shown rapid development between fights and deserved a higher volatility rating.