Loading...
Prediction: Cachoeira by KO/TKO (R1–2)
Reality: Sygula by decision
This was an overweighting of early chaos finishing without sufficient confirmation of conversion reliability. Cachoeira’s historical KO equity was treated as durable, but recent tape shows declining ability to force sustained damage against opponents who can stay upright and disengage. Sygula, while inexperienced, passed the Early Chaos Survival Test—she absorbed pressure without freezing, avoided fence entrapment, and forced Cachoeira to reset repeatedly.
Power ≠ finishing inevitability in women’s flyweight without volume or trapping.
Cachoeira’s pressure did not meet PMTR standards (forward motion without consistent cage cutting).
Downgrade KO confidence for brawlers whose finishing depends on opponent collapse rather than layered offense.
Require pressure validation (trap + volume) before projecting early stoppages.
Prediction: Brasil by decision
Reality: Souza by decision
This was a Control vs Damage Weight (CDW) misread. Souza did not need sustained damage—she won by optics, positional dominance, and repeated control segments, especially when Brasil failed to create visible separation on breaks. Brasil’s range advantage existed, but her output was not decisive enough to override grappling optics.
Brasil’s striking was clean but low-impact, allowing Souza’s control to dominate judging perception.
Souza exceeded expectations in top-position persistence, invalidating the “single-path grappler” downgrade.
Strengthen Control Undervaluation Fix when grappler consistently secures positional wins even without damage.
Penalize strikers who fail to visibly punish entries or exits.
Prediction: Morono by decision
Reality: Donchenko by decision
This was an overreliance on veteran chaos competence. Morono’s historical success in messy fights masked a Recent Rout / Stalled Performance continuation—his output and urgency were insufficient against a disciplined, physically assertive opponent who did not overextend.
Donchenko did not collapse under chaos; instead, he imposed structure and won minutes.
Morono failed the Urgency Index—he allowed rounds to slip without forcing momentum shifts.
Tighten Passive Veteran Trap Rule (PVTR): experience does not override low urgency.
Downgrade veterans who rely on opponent mistakes rather than proactive scoring.
Prediction: Barriault by decision or late TKO
Reality: Oleksiejczuk by decision
This was a Pressure Fighter Reliability failure. Barriault’s pressure was assumed to compound, but Oleksiejczuk successfully neutralized pace with counters and resets, preventing attritional takeover. Barriault applied volume, but not enough damage or control leverage to flip rounds.
Oleksiejczuk’s ability to win moments cleanly disrupted Barriault’s volume narrative.
Barriault’s pressure did not escalate—he failed to meaningfully trap or break posture.
Enforce Pressure Must Trap Rule (PMTR) more strictly.
Downgrade volume-only pressure fighters when opponent shows counter composure and durability.
Prediction: Almeida by submission (R1–2)
Reality: Kuniev by decision
This was a hard EVG + Control Undervaluation miss.
Almeida failed to:
Secure safe entries
Convert takedowns into stable control
Avoid eating counters on attempts
Kuniev repeatedly defended, stood up, and punished entries, flipping the grappling advantage into a liability. Once Almeida failed early, his entire win condition collapsed.
Entry Validation Gate (EVG) was not enforced strongly enough.
Heavyweight grappling dominance was assumed without confirmation against a physically resistant opponent.
Never project grappling inevitability without proven entry safety vs similar opponents.
If grappler fails to establish control in R1 → immediately downgrade submission equity and decision confidence.