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Pick: Yi Zha
Reality: Ofli by decision
EVG + Control Undervaluation failure
Ofli’s wrestling entries were assumed to be linear / low quality
In reality, he:
Secured repeatable clinch entries
Achieved sustained ride time
Won rounds via positional control, not damage
Yi Zha failed to punish entries with meaningful damage → EVG penalty should not have activated
Yi Zha did not demonstrate reliable counter-deterrence
Control vs Damage Weight (CDW) should have shifted earlier once Ofli showed he could bank minutes
NEW RULE ADJUSTMENT
If a grappler repeatedly secures takedowns with ≥30s control segments in R1 without eating clean counters, downgrade striker’s KO equity and shift fight toward decision-control bias.
Pick: Elliott
Reality: Micallef by submission
Submission Reversal Alert (SRA) + Defensive Blind Spot
Elliott’s pace and pressure were correctly identified
But:
His defensive grappling under fatigue was overtrusted
Micallef showed opportunistic submission chaining, not just power striking
Elliott dominated minutes but lost scramble discipline
Elliott overextended in clinch exchanges
Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP2) should have been applied harder once fight entered grappling fatigue phase
MODEL FIX (IMPORTANT)
Pressure fighters with high clinch volume must be checked for late-fight submission exposure, even when winning rounds.
This fight must downgrade confidence gating for pace-only pressure fighters without elite submission defense.
Pick: Mullarkey
Reality: Salkilld by submission
Veteran Tempo Override (VTO) overapplied
Mullarkey’s grit and chaos experience were valued
But:
He repeatedly conceded bad grappling positions
Failed the Top-Control Fragility Check
Salkilld showed USE (Underdog Skill Expansion) in grappling — this was underweighted
Mullarkey’s habit of “survive first, scramble later” is dangerous vs submission-hungry prospects
RULE TIGHTENING
Veterans who rely on toughness + scrambling must be penalized vs opponents with proactive submission chains.
VTO does not override grappling risk.
Pick: Fiziev
Reality: Ruffy by KO/TKO
Post-Layoff + Early Chaos Undervalued
Fiziev’s technical edge was correct
But:
Early KO volatility was underestimated
Ruffy’s explosiveness + confidence overwhelmed Fiziev before rhythm stabilization
This violates Chaos vs Untested Tech (CUT) calibration
Fiziev coming off injury + long layoff
Ruffy is a burst finisher, not a gradual power guy
NEW EARLY-ROUND RULE When a returning technician faces a fast, explosive striker with ≥60% R1 finishes, early KO volatility must increase even if technician is superior long-term.
This should have pushed this to Lean / High-Volatility, not near-confident.
Pick: Hooker
Reality: Saint-Denis by KO/TKO
Durability Integrity Check (DIC) asymmetry error
BSD’s pressure + finishing was partially discounted due to past losses
Hooker’s durability was over-trusted
Chaos Parity Check failed because:
BSD’s chaos is directional and sustained
Hooker’s chaos tolerance has degraded
BSD did not need perfect wrestling — attritional damage alone was enough
Hooker’s defensive reactions are slower vs sustained pressure
DIC REFINEMENT
When both fighters accept chaos, favor the fighter with forward momentum + finishing urgency, not historical durability.
Hooker should have been downgraded under Pressure Fighter Reliability Update.