UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

1. Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller

Prediction: Adam Fugitt by KO/TKO or decision

Reality: Ty Miller by KO/TKO · R1 04:59

What went wrong

This was a hard failure, not a coin-flip miss.

A. Chaos vs Untested Tech (CUT) was misapplied

We assumed:

• Fugitt’s pressure would disrupt Miller

• Miller would need time to stabilize

What actually happened:

• Miller was the faster chaos generator

• Fugitt was the one forced into reactive exchanges

→ CUT should have been inverted, not applied in Fugitt’s favor.

B. Power & Physicality Adjustment (PPA) over-weighted Fugitt

The model leaned on:

• Fugitt’s past UFC durability

• Assumed clinch survivability

Reality:

• Miller’s speed + timing > Fugitt’s durability

• Fugitt absorbed clean, unmitigated shots early

→ This should have triggered a Durability Integrity downgrade, not neutrality.

C. Entry Validation Gate (EVG) blind spot

Fugitt’s pressure:

• Was linear

• Lacked layered setups

• Did not safely close distance

That exposed him to:

• Straight counters

• Intercepting shots (exact finish sequence)

→ EVG should have penalized Fugitt’s pressure, not validated it.

Corrective Action

New refinement added to existing ruleset:

• Pressure Initiator Check (PIC):

  If a pressure fighter’s entries are linear AND opponent has speed/timing advantages, apply:

  • −6% win probability

  • +8% early KO volatility

  • CUT advantage shifts to opponent

This directly prevents repeats of this error.

2. Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva

Prediction: Arnold Allen by decision

Reality: Jean Silva by decision · R3 05:00

This was not a random upset — it was a tempo misread.

What went wrong

A. Veteran Tempo Override (VTO) was over-trusted

We assumed:

• Allen could slow pace

• Allen could win optics late

Reality:

• Silva won minutes consistently

• Allen did not assert pace control

• Silva dictated engagement terms

→ VTO requires active assertion, not passive survival.

B. Pressure Must Trap Rule (PMTR) under-penalized Allen’s defense

We focused on Silva’s need to trap.

What we missed:

• Allen failed to disengage effectively

• Silva didn’t need perfect cage cutting — Allen stayed in range

→ PMTR should also evaluate defender exit quality, not just attacker pressure.

C. Recent Rout / Stalled Performance Check (RRSP) insufficiently weighted

Allen’s recent form showed:

• Reduced urgency

• Lower output consistency

We treated it as neutral.

Reality:

• This was a classic stalled-performance continuation

→ RRSP penalty should have been stronger.

Corrective Action

Enhancement to existing RRSP + VTO rules:

• Passive Veteran Trap Rule (PVTR):

  If a veteran:

  • Relies on tempo control without asserting volume

  • Shows stalled output in last fight

  • Faces an aggressive, consistent pressure opponent

Apply:

• −6–8% win probability

• Downgrade decision equity

• Increase likelihood of opponent round accumulation

This directly addresses Allen-type losses.

Summary of Model Corrections

Fugitt loss teaches:

• Do not assume pressure = chaos advantage

• Speed + timing can flip CUT instantly

• Linear pressure must be penalized harder

Allen loss teaches:

• Veteran tempo only works if actively imposed

• Stalled performers cannot be trusted vs steady pressure

• Defensive exits matter as much as offensive pressure