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Prediction: Mariscal by Decision or late TKO
Reality: Sabatini by Decision
We overestimated Mariscal’s scramble efficiency. His SRC bonus was too high relative to Sabatini’s early positional control.
We undervalued Sabatini’s ability to reset and stick to a patient, top-control gameplan.
We over-penalized Sabatini’s durability (DIC), which was not relevant in a grappling-heavy fight without chaos striking.
We assumed Mariscal’s pressure would break Sabatini, but Sabatini neutralized pressure with early takedowns.
Pressure fighters MUST be downgraded when facing technically disciplined grapplers who succeed early.
Durability penalties cannot overshadow stylistic advantages when the matchup is grappling-dominated.
Prediction: Kopylov by KO/TKO
Reality: Rodrigues by Decision
The model over-penalized Rodrigues’ chin (DIC & ACA). He fought defensively sound, proving durability not as degraded as assumed.
Kopylov’s takedown defense was overrated; Rodrigues’ explosive grappling was undervalued.
We undervalued Rodrigues’ improved pacing — he did not gas, and his cardio drop-off (PDT) was improperly applied.
When an explosive grappler shows measurable defensive and pacing improvements, durability penalties should be softened.
Kopylov’s TDD cannot be considered elite vs power-chain wrestlers, only against mid-paced wrestlers.
Prediction: Edwards by Decision or late TKO
Reality: Prates by KO/TKO
Edwards’ aging curve penalties (ACA) were too soft — his speed, reaction time, and ability to deter pressure have dropped more than model assumed.
The model undervalued Prates’ physicality and explosiveness — PPA needed to be higher.
Title Defense Bias (TDB) slightly helped Edwards in prediction, but this was a bad spot: rising, explosive power puncher vs aging champion.
Edwards’ slow-start tendency (SSA) was not weighted enough.
Increase PPA in matchups where a rising, explosive fighter faces an aging champion.
Increase ACA and PDT penalties for Edwards-like aging fighters who rely on timing and reaction.
Reduce TDB effect when the challenger has high finishing equity (>35%).
Prediction: Zhang by Decision
Reality: Shevchenko by Decision
We underestimated the Veteran Strategy Factor — Shevchenko made better tactical decisions.
We overestimated Zhang’s ability to break a disciple counter-striker with pressure.
We undervalued Shevchenko’s five-round IQ and her ability to manage pace even with slight physical decline.
The model applied ACA (aging decline) too strongly for Shevchenko.
Increase Veteran Strategy Bonus for ex-champions with strong history of 5-round tactical wins.
Reduce Zhang’s pressure effectiveness score vs elite counter-strikers.
Pressure fighters must be downgraded vs disciplined, early-control grapplers.
Explosive fighters showing improved pacing/defense must have softened durability penalties.
Increase PPA for rising power punchers vs aging champions.
Boost Veteran Strategy Bonus for elite ex-champions with proven 5R IQ.
Don’t overvalue durability decline when the expected fight trajectory is grappling-heavy.