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Predicted: Amorim by Decision or Submission
Reality: Inoue by Decision
Overweighted early-round explosiveness and undervalued cardio & recovery factor.
Amorim faded quickly after Round 1 — this exposed a consistent pattern in explosive grapplers with poor pacing.
Inoue’s durability and steady output weren’t adequately rewarded in the model.
Introduce Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): −7% penalty for fighters whose output drops ≥30% after Round 1.
Add Durable Volume Bonus (DVB): +5% for opponents with proven endurance and steady round-winning activity.
Strengthen PDT influence for known early-faders like Amorim (stack with CSI).
Predicted: Maksum by Decision or late Submission
Reality: Raposo by Decision
Speed and lateral movement from Raposo neutralized Maksum’s grappling — the model underweighted mobility and defensive footwork vs linear wrestlers.
Maksum’s one-gear approach triggered an unrecognized Predictable Entry Penalty scenario.
Add Mobility Disruption Bonus (MDB): +6% for fast-footwork fighters vs straight-line wrestlers.
Add Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP): −6% for grapplers with <25% takedown success in previous two fights or no striking setup diversity.
Predicted: Delgado by Decision or KO/TKO
Reality: Wood by Decision
Model over-weighted Power and Physicality Adjustment (PPA) while underestimating technical resilience and counter-adaptation from Wood.
Wood’s composure and defensive reads neutralized Delgado’s early explosiveness.
Add Adaptive Technician Bonus (ATB): +6% for fighters who historically improve accuracy/output after Round 1.
Cap PPA influence at +6% (was +10%) when the stronger fighter lacks proven late-fight cardio.
Add Composure Under Pressure Modifier (CUPM): +5% for fighters with 3+ wins via comeback or round-2/3 rallies.
Predicted: Haqparast by Decision or late TKO
Reality: Salkilld by KO/TKO
Underestimated physicality jump for debuting Salkilld and overconfidence in Haqparast’s durability.
No specific penalty for long-tenured veterans showing flat defensive reactions.
Add Veteran Decay Penalty (VDP): −8% for fighters with 5+ UFC bouts who haven’t scored a finish in last 4.
Add Debut Shock Factor (DSF): +5% volatility and +4% finish probability for athletic newcomers with high regional KO rate (>60%).
Re-weight SDI (Striking Defense Integrity) more aggressively (−8% instead of −6%) when facing power punchers.
Predicted: Jandiroba by Decision
Reality: Dern by Decision
Misread fight-IQ trajectory — Dern showed striking discipline and consistent output improvements, which the model failed to credit as progression.
Jandiroba’s pacing and low damage didn’t sway judges, showing an underweighting of visible offense vs control.
Add Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): +6% for fighters showing ≥20% increase in strike accuracy or output over their last two fights.
Adjust Control vs Damage Scoring Weight (CDW): Increase striking visibility factor +5% for fighters landing more sig. strikes even if controlled.
Re-evaluate judging bias weighting: visible damage > control in close fights (especially strawweight division).
Cardio Sustain Index (CSI): Penalize early-faders −7%.
Durable Volume Bonus (DVB): Reward steady-paced fighters +5%.
Mobility Disruption Bonus (MDB): Reward lateral movers +6% vs linear wrestlers.
Predictable Entry Penalty (PEP): −6% for one-dimensional grapplers.
Adaptive Technician Bonus (ATB): +6% for fighters who improve accuracy after Round 1.
Composure Under Pressure Modifier (CUPM): +5% for proven comeback composure.
Veteran Decay Penalty (VDP): −8% for aging vets with low recent finish output.
Debut Shock Factor (DSF): +4% finish probability for explosive newcomers.
Evolution Momentum Bonus (EMB): +6% for fighters trending upward in output/accuracy.
Control vs Damage Weight (CDW): Slightly favor visible damage over top control in scoring simulations.
✅ Net effect:
Stronger recognition of momentum, cardio, and adaptability.
Reduced overreliance on raw physicality (PPA) when technical endurance and evolution trends suggest otherwise.
Increased accuracy in predicting decision fights where visible striking matters more than control.