Predicted: Vanderford by Decision
Reality: Brahimaj by Submission
Error Source:
Overvalued wrestling control vs submission danger.
Ignored Brahimaj’s high finishing rate and Vanderford’s history of being caught during transitions.
Underweighted submission specialists’ “grappling fallback” in scrambles.
Fix:
→ Always apply Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): submission hunters who can finish even from bad positions get a probability boost.
→ Penalize wrestlers with submission lapses even if they have top control.
Predicted: Veretennikov by Decision
Reality: Soriano by Decision
Error Source:
Ignored Soriano’s stylistic recalibration—he fought measured and used wrestling, not just early bursts.
Over-relied on “decline trend” from gas tank narrative without factoring potential adjustments.
Fix:
→ Add Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Fighters showing improved composure or new tools in the last fight get performance weight.
→ Re-evaluate fading fighters if recent training/camp shifts indicate tactical evolution.
Predicted: Mix by Submission
Reality: Wikłacz by Decision
Error Source:
Ignored the Recent Rout Check fully—Patchy was coming off a paralyzing loss (vs Bautista).
Treated him like his old self with no confidence degradation.
Fix:
→ Enforce Recent Rout / Stalled Performance Penalty (RRSP) consistently.
→ A fighter who looked paralyzed, low-output, or lost composure gets a mandatory downgrade of at least -7% win probability.
Predicted: Chiasson by Decision
Reality: Yana Santos by Decision
Error Source:
Overestimated physicality advantage and underestimated Yana’s consistency and veteran adjustments.
Ignored “slow starter / low urgency” pattern in Chiasson fights.
Fix:
→ Implement Urgency Index (UI): fighters who lose rounds due to inactivity or slow starts lose reliability weighting.
→ Don’t equate physical size with control unless they consistently convert it into effective scoring.
Predicted: Muniz by Submission
Reality: Shahbazyan by KO/TKO
Error Source:
Continued to overvalue Muniz’s grappling edge despite cardio decline and durability issues.
Failed to apply Aging & Damage Curve (ADC) aggressively enough.
Fix:
→ Reinforce ADC: grapplers with recent KO losses or gas-tank collapses lose finishing reliability weighting.
→ Add Durability Integrity Check (DIC): once cracked recently, probability of surviving heavy exchanges drops steeply.
Predicted: Emmett by KO
Reality: Zalal by Submission
Error Source:
Missed Emmett’s steep physical decline post recent wars and KO losses.
Ignored stylistic shift—Zalal used grappling-heavy approach rather than out-striking.
Fix:
→ Apply Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA): fighters 38+ coming off KO losses get an extra -10% baseline durability penalty.
→ Add Style Inversion Check (SIC): downgrade prediction certainty when the opponent is showing tactical diversity (like Zalal grappling).
Predicted: Ankalaev by Decision
Reality: Pereira by KO/TKO
Error Source:
Overrated Ankalaev’s wrestling commitment (low-volume and passive).
Undervalued Pereira’s ability to exploit tentative fighters.
Did not flag “hesitation risk” vs power striker.
Fix:
→ Implement Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): low-output or hesitant fighters vs elite power strikers lose 6–10% win probability.
→ Increase volatility weighting in matchups with asymmetric finishing potential.