UFC 320: Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

1. Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford

Predicted: Vanderford by Decision

Reality: Brahimaj by Submission

Error Source:

• Overvalued wrestling control vs submission danger.

• Ignored Brahimaj’s high finishing rate and Vanderford’s history of being caught during transitions.

• Underweighted submission specialists’ “grappling fallback” in scrambles.

Fix:

→ Always apply Grappling Fallback Weight (GFW): submission hunters who can finish even from bad positions get a probability boost.

→ Penalize wrestlers with submission lapses even if they have top control.

2. Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Predicted: Veretennikov by Decision

Reality: Soriano by Decision

Error Source:

• Ignored Soriano’s stylistic recalibration—he fought measured and used wrestling, not just early bursts.

• Over-relied on “decline trend” from gas tank narrative without factoring potential adjustments.

Fix:

→ Add Adaptive Bounce Factor (ABF): Fighters showing improved composure or new tools in the last fight get performance weight.

→ Re-evaluate fading fighters if recent training/camp shifts indicate tactical evolution.

3. Patchy Mix vs Jakub Wikłacz

Predicted: Mix by Submission

Reality: Wikłacz by Decision

Error Source:

• Ignored the Recent Rout Check fully—Patchy was coming off a paralyzing loss (vs Bautista).

• Treated him like his old self with no confidence degradation.

Fix:

→ Enforce Recent Rout / Stalled Performance Penalty (RRSP) consistently.

→ A fighter who looked paralyzed, low-output, or lost composure gets a mandatory downgrade of at least -7% win probability.

4. Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos

Predicted: Chiasson by Decision

Reality: Yana Santos by Decision

Error Source:

• Overestimated physicality advantage and underestimated Yana’s consistency and veteran adjustments.

• Ignored “slow starter / low urgency” pattern in Chiasson fights.

Fix:

→ Implement Urgency Index (UI): fighters who lose rounds due to inactivity or slow starts lose reliability weighting.

→ Don’t equate physical size with control unless they consistently convert it into effective scoring.

5. Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Muniz

Predicted: Muniz by Submission

Reality: Shahbazyan by KO/TKO

Error Source:

• Continued to overvalue Muniz’s grappling edge despite cardio decline and durability issues.

• Failed to apply Aging & Damage Curve (ADC) aggressively enough.

Fix:

→ Reinforce ADC: grapplers with recent KO losses or gas-tank collapses lose finishing reliability weighting.

→ Add Durability Integrity Check (DIC): once cracked recently, probability of surviving heavy exchanges drops steeply.

6. Josh Emmett vs Youssef Zalal

Predicted: Emmett by KO

Reality: Zalal by Submission

Error Source:

• Missed Emmett’s steep physical decline post recent wars and KO losses.

• Ignored stylistic shift—Zalal used grappling-heavy approach rather than out-striking.

Fix:

→ Apply Aging Curve Acceleration (ACA): fighters 38+ coming off KO losses get an extra -10% baseline durability penalty.

→ Add Style Inversion Check (SIC): downgrade prediction certainty when the opponent is showing tactical diversity (like Zalal grappling).

7. Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Predicted: Ankalaev by Decision

Reality: Pereira by KO/TKO

Error Source:

• Overrated Ankalaev’s wrestling commitment (low-volume and passive).

• Undervalued Pereira’s ability to exploit tentative fighters.

• Did not flag “hesitation risk” vs power striker.

Fix:

→ Implement Aggression Reliance Penalty (ARP): low-output or hesitant fighters vs elite power strikers lose 6–10% win probability.

→ Increase volatility weighting in matchups with asymmetric finishing potential.