Loading...
Prediction: Barboza by Decision (60–40 lean)
Reality: Klose by Decision
What went wrong:
Underestimated Klose’s durability & pace: I expected Barboza’s range striking to control distance, but Klose’s pressure limited Barboza’s output.
Aging factor: At 39, Barboza’s ability to keep high striking volume for three rounds was overestimated.
Style clash bias: I gave Barboza’s striking pedigree too much weight against a grinder.
Adjustment:
Strongly downgrade aging kickboxers when facing pressure wrestlers who can crowd them.
Increase weighting for durability + pace when a younger fighter can smother a declining striker’s range.
Prediction: Hooper by Submission/Decision (70–30, very confident)
Reality: Hernandez by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Overconfidence in Hooper’s durability: His strike defense was always porous (only ~38%), but I leaned too heavily on his grappling edge.
Ignored Hernandez’s explosiveness early: Hernandez does fade, but he’s historically very dangerous in round 1.
False durability bias: I assumed Hooper’s height and grappling would absorb/negate power better than it actually did.
Adjustment:
Increase volatility index when a fighter with weak defense (like Hooper) faces an explosive starter.
Penalize grappling-based picks if the path to ground control requires surviving dangerous early striking.
Prediction: Asakura by KO/TKO (75–25, very confident)
Reality: Elliott by Submission
What went wrong:
Underestimated Elliott’s wrestling setups: I assumed his age and decline would limit takedown execution, but he successfully mixed pressure and grappling.
Ignored Asakura’s untested grappling defense: He’d been exposed before on the mat, but I gave his striking edge too much weight.
Overvalued youth/power vs veteran craft: Elliott used veteran opportunism to snatch a sub.
Adjustment:
For aging wrestlers, don’t fully write off their grappling paths if opponent has a documented weakness there.
Always factor “veteran submission opportunism” higher, especially when opponent is flashy striker with limited mat experience.
Prediction: Pico by Decision (55–45)
Reality: Murphy by KO/TKO
What went wrong:
Overestimated Pico’s ability to impose wrestling: Murphy’s composure and defensive footwork nullified Pico’s entries.
Underestimated Murphy’s power & timing: He’s not just volume — Murphy’s counters can be fight-ending.
Newcomer overhype bias: Pico was making his UFC debut. I gave his “prospect reputation” too much credit against a proven top-10 featherweight.
Adjustment:
Downgrade UFC newcomers against undefeated, ranked veterans with proven 5-round durability.
Give more credit to “volume strikers with KO potential” like Murphy who can punish wrestling entries.
Aging Strikers vs Pressure Grapplers → downgrade heavily (Barboza lesson).
Explosive Starters vs Defensive Liabilities → increase early KO risk, even when grappler is favored (Hooper lesson).
Veteran Grappling Opportunism → never ignore, especially vs flashy strikers with poor mat history (Elliott lesson).
Proven Ranked Veterans vs UFC Debutants → boost the veteran edge, reduce hype bias (Murphy lesson).
These four outcomes show I need to rebalance overconfidence in hype prospects and stylistic archetypes, and put more respect on veteran opportunism and early KO volatility.