UFC 318: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

❌ 1. Jackson McVey vs Brunno Ferreira

Prediction: McVey by Decision

Reality: Ferreira by Submission (R1)

Mistake:

• Overvalued McVey’s range and discipline, undervalued Ferreira’s raw explosiveness and grappling threat.

• Ignored that McVey had never faced someone with Ferreira’s chaos and finishing aggression.

• Fix: Increase early-round finish weighting for brawlers with explosive starts. Flag debutants like McVey as high volatility unless they’ve faced similar chaos on tape.

❌ 2. Marcin Prachnio vs Jimmy Crute

Prediction: Prachnio by Decision

Reality: Crute by Submission (R3)

Mistake:

• Ignored Crute’s return to wrestling. He’d abandoned it in recent fights, but this was a return-to-form.

• Overestimated Prachnio’s takedown defense and cardio against pressure.

• Fix: When wrestlers are coming off KO losses, re-weight for likely wrestling reversion — especially if facing a striker with a known grappling hole.

❌ 3. Robert Valentin vs Ateba Gautier

Prediction: Valentin by Decision

Reality: Gautier by KO/TKO (R1)

Mistake:

• Underestimated Gautier’s explosiveness and finishing ability.

• Overrated Valentin’s composure and defense under fire; debut nerves weren’t factored in.

• Fix: When both fighters are debuting, reweight in favor of the more explosive striker if the opponent lacks proven durability or grappling insurance.

❌ 4. Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Prediction: Prado by KO/TKO

Reality: Veretennikov by Decision

Mistake:

• Ignored Prado’s tendency to fade when his chaos is neutralized.

• Underrated Veretennikov’s jab and composure.

• Fix: Penalize chaos brawlers like Prado when facing patient, defensively sound range fighters who don’t engage recklessly. Flag “chaos fades” risk more aggressively.

❌ 5. Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen

Prediction: Vettori by Decision

Reality: Allen by Decision

Mistake:

• Allen outgrappled and outpaced Vettori — model assumed Vettori’s takedown defense and chin would win rounds.

• Missed the speed and volume disparity and overestimated Vettori’s ability to “stay in it” through pace.

• Fix: Adjust logic for fighters like Vettori who rely only on durability and pace but aren’t winning moments — they must be penalized for lack of offense.

❌ 6. Roman Kopylov vs Paulo Costa

Prediction: Kopylov by Decision

Reality: Costa by Decision

Mistake:

• Underestimated Costa’s pressure and wrestling tempo. He fought smarter, with better cardio.

• Overrated Kopylov’s ability to keep range and land meaningful shots while backing up.

• Fix: Increase volatility and re-weight cardio expectations when both fighters are coming off layoffs. Reward known chin + wrestling if not severely declining.

❌ 7. Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez

Prediction: Holland by Submission

Reality: Rodriguez by Decision

Mistake:

• Holland coasted. Assumed he’d be more aggressive. Rodriguez landed the cleaner shots.

• Didn’t factor Holland’s tendency to “let rounds go” if he doesn’t feel urgent.

• Fix: Penalize fighters with inconsistent urgency or passive tendencies in close matchups — especially in 3-round fights.

❌ 8. Dan Ige vs Patrício Pitbull

Prediction: Ige by Decision

Reality: Pitbull by Decision

Mistake:

• Underestimated Pitbull’s durability and timing advantage despite recent KO.

• Ige didn’t press hard enough — model expected more aggression.

• Fix: For aging legends with proven technical skill, reweight higher when they’re not facing explosive finishers. Don’t overvalue “youth and pace” if the vet still has clean technique.

❌ 9. Daniel Zellhuber vs Michael Johnson

Prediction: Zellhuber by Decision

Reality: Johnson by Decision

Mistake:

• Completely missed that Zellhuber fought flat and let Johnson dictate pace.

• Overconfident on Zellhuber’s growth curve and durability.

• Fix: When younger fighters show low urgency or pace inconsistencies, penalize heavily if they’re not facing a pressure grappler.

🔧 Key Permanent Fixes Being Applied Now

1. Heavily penalize strikers who abandon wrestling after multiple KO losses — but reward them if they revert to grappling (e.g., Crute).

2. Chaos fighters must be flagged if they gas out in every loss (e.g., Prado, Ferreira’s opponents).

3. Underdog veterans with clean technique and timing (e.g., Pitbull, Johnson) should be boosted in matchups where their opponent lacks pressure or killer instinct.

4. Favor durable, composed wrestlers or clinch fighters vs flashy debutants unless debutant has proven composure (Valentin vs Gautier).

5. Fighters with known urgency issues (Holland, Zellhuber) must be penalized in decisions vs durable opponents.

6. Apply “ring rust risk” to both fighters if coming off KO loss + layoff — raises unpredictability and favors cardio + wrestling path.