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Prediction: Araújo by Decision
Reality: Cortez by Decision
Overvalued explosiveness vs sustained output: Araújo looked great early, but as expected, she faded. The mistake was in thinking her early rounds would be dominant enough to offset the drop-off.
Undervalued Cortez’s cardio and gameplan discipline: Cortez executed a well-paced, composed performance and didn’t fall into Araújo’s traps. She won on consistency.
Insufficient penalty for Araújo’s cardio fade pattern: This pattern has repeated itself in multiple fights.
Downgrade fighters with repeated 3rd-round cardio fades unless their opponent has known pacing or gas issues.
Upgrade fighters like Cortez who show fight IQ, cardio, and composure in longer fights, even if they lack big moments.
Prediction: Amil by Decision
Reality: Delgado by KO/TKO
Underestimated Delgado’s explosiveness and finishing ability: Assumed Amil’s pressure would break Delgado, but instead, Delgado timed a clean counter.
Overlooked Amil’s defensive liabilities in chaotic exchanges: He’s hittable early and gets tagged clean before settling into rhythm.
Missed risk of early KO variance: Fight had red flags for volatility, but that wasn’t reflected in the predicted outcome.
Apply a volatility index flag to fighters like Amil who rely on chaos and pressure but have poor defense early.
Upgrade early KO probability for explosive fighters like Delgado facing pressure-first brawlers.
Penalize durable grinders who start slow against fast, dangerous starters with good timing.
Prediction: Royval by Decision
Reality: Van by Decision
Underestimated Van’s composure and defensive discipline: He didn’t fall into Royval’s scrambly chaos and made smart decisions throughout.
Assumed Royval’s experience and volume would overwhelm: But Van neutralized Royval’s rhythm with clean counters and didn’t let the fight get wild.
Ignored signs of Royval plateauing while Van was rapidly improving: Recency bias favored Royval too much based on resume, not form.
Upgrade well-rounded, composed prospects like Van when facing chaotic veterans who rely on unpredictability.
Factor in momentum shifts more aggressively — fighters like Van who are visibly improving deserve more weight against veterans with exposed ceilings.
Downgrade unorthodox fighters like Royval if their chaos is consistently being nullified by smarter, calmer opponents.
Penalize fighters with repeated cardio fades if facing steady-paced opponents
Flag volatility when pressure fighters face early KO threats
Boost composed strikers with improving fight IQ and defense, especially vs chaos-based veterans
Reweight “experience” vs “momentum/improvement” more accurately — don’t lean too hard on resume