UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena fail predictions analysis

1. Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena

• Prediction: Belal by Decision (via pressure, cardio, control)

• Reality: Jack by Decision

• Missed Factors:

  • Belal’s layoff (over a year) = clear ring rust

  • Weight cut concerns possibly hurt pace

  • Jack’s improved takedown defense and counter work

  • Belal did not chain wrestle or adjust pace as expected

🛠 Adjustment: Penalize fighters coming off long layoffs without a warm-up fight — especially if their game is cardio-dependent and involves grappling against technical strikers with good hips and composure (like JDM).

2. José Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi

• Prediction: Aldo by Decision or Late TKO

• Reality: Zahabi by Unanimous Decision

• Missed Factors:

  • Assumed Aldo was still in near-peak form; ignored possible decline in urgency

  • Aldo’s activity was low — looked hesitant, even flat

  • Zahabi’s patience and discipline stifled exchanges

🛠 Adjustment: Downgrade aging legends coming out of retirement or long layoffs unless they’ve shown recent aggression or fire. Add a “low urgency return” flag for fighters over 35 with over 1 year out and no strong reason to assume improvement.

3. Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva

• Prediction: Grasso by Decision

• Reality: Silva by Decision

• Missed Factors:

  • Underestimated Silva’s footwork and volume at flyweight

  • Grasso may have struggled with speed disadvantage

  • Grasso post-title loss psychology overlooked

🛠 Adjustment: Adjust for potential composure drop after losing a belt, especially if facing a fast, hungry, less predictable striker. Upgrade fighters like Silva with superior footwork and quickness when facing slower, boxing-oriented fighters.

4. Jéssica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

• Prediction: Andrade by TKO (R1–2)

• Reality: Jasmine by Submission (R1)

• Missed Factors:

  • Andrade looked completely shot physically and mentally

  • No regard for defense or composure

  • Ignored possibility that Jasmine would grapple early

🛠 Adjustment: Fighters like Andrade, who have taken multiple brutal finishes recently (5+ KO/TKOs within 2 years), should be heavily downgraded for durability and fight IQ, even against unranked opponents. Flag as “declining warhorse.”

5. Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan

• Prediction: Katona by Decision

• Reality: Bekzat by KO/TKO

• Missed Factors:

  • Underrated Bekzat’s physicality and aggression

  • Katona’s lack of power and defensive reactions

  • Possibly overvalued Katona’s control style vs wild pressure

🛠 Adjustment: Penalize control grinders without stopping ability when facing explosive fighters with KO potential and pace. Also upgrade well-rounded chaos fighters who’ve shown composure and pressure durability (Bekzat fits this).