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Prediction: Volk by decision (55%)
Result: Diego Lopes wins (KO/TKO R1)
Underestimated post-KO trauma: Despite factoring in recent KOs and Volk’s mental health admission, I still gave him the edge in durability that no longer existed. Lopes’ early chaos was more decisive than predicted.
Didn’t penalize short turnaround enough: Volk fought in February and returned after a brutal KO. That wasn’t enough recovery.
Stylistic risk underplayed: Lopes’ unorthodox approach was not seen as dangerous enough early. This needs a heavier weight against recently damaged veterans.
Heavily downgrade fighters returning from KO losses in under 6 months.
Increase volatility rating when recent damage is paired with an explosive opponent.
Prediction: Krylov by decision or late TKO (70%)
Result: Reyes wins by KO (R1)
Underestimated Reyes’ power retention: Reyes had been KO’d repeatedly, but still held early-round kill power.
Overconfident in Krylov’s chin: Krylov is durable, but not invincible—and he was caught clean early.
Didn’t factor urgency swing: Reyes was fighting to save his career and came out aggressive. Krylov started slower than usual.
Increase early KO threat percentage for fighters with proven round-1 power—even if they’re declining.
Don’t give durable grinders a false sense of safety vs dangerous former contenders.
Prediction: Yan by decision (64%)
Result: Jandiroba wins (Decision)
Overestimated Yan’s takedown defense: Based on improvements vs Mackenzie Dern, I assumed she’d repeat that. But Virna’s wrestling was much more effective.
Underweighted Virna’s control dominance: Even without damage, control time was enough to win rounds—especially in a slower-paced fight.
Assumed too much striking separation: Yan didn’t throw enough volume under pressure to offset control optics.
Increase win probability for control-heavy grapplers vs strikers who slow under pressure.
Prioritize top-control duration more when the striker doesn’t have strong damage output or sweeps.
Prediction: Miller by KO/sub (65%)
Result: Hooper wins (Decision)
Underestimated Hooper’s physical development: He’s grown stronger and more composed, particularly in scrambles.
Expected early finish from Miller that never came—his speed and pressure didn’t translate like before.
Hooper’s striking looked improved enough to nullify Miller’s boxing entries.
Give weight to youth + momentum in developing fighters, especially after dominant last outing (Hooper over Leavitt).
Do not overvalue aging veterans’ finishing power without recent consistency.
Prediction: Cornolle by decision (60%)
Result: Cowan wins (Decision)
Overestimated Cornolle’s striking volume: She didn’t throw enough to keep Cowan off rhythm or win on optics.
Cowan used better wrestling than expected: Showed improved physicality and ground control, likely from camp progress.
Cowan fought a smarter fight: Clinched often, neutralized Cornolle’s preferred range, won ugly.
Recalibrate Cornolle’s offensive reliability—volume is inconsistent.
Give more weight to physical strength and clinch control for underdog grapplers vs non-finishing strikers.
Prediction: Darren Elkins by decision or late TKO (55%)
Julian Erosa had a strong early KO chance, but Elkins was favored to grind him out over 3 rounds with wrestling and cardio.
Actual Result:Julian Erosa wins by unanimous decision
Erosa stayed composed and used length + activity to keep Elkins from getting into rhythm.
Instead of fading or brawling recklessly (as in past losses), he fought a measured, disciplined fight.
🔁 Adjustment: Upgrade probability for fighters like Erosa when they show clear improvement in composure and fight IQ under pressure.
At 39, Elkins could no longer weaponize cardio like he used to. He got outpaced and couldn’t physically impose his will.
Wrestling entries were telegraphed, and Erosa punished them with knees and jabs.
🔁 Adjustment: Penalize aging grinders who:
Rely on cardio to win late.
Lack consistent takedown setups.
Show declining ability to impose pace.
Elkins had always been insanely tough, but he now gets rocked more frequently and bleeds easily.
Judges responded to visual damage and output—not just control attempts.
🔁 Adjustment: Adjust durability valuation for aging fighters showing physical wear, even if they aren’t getting KO’d.