Analyzing the fail predictions for UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates

1. Chelsea Chandler vs. Joselyne Edwards

Prediction Logic (likely):

• Chandler was expected to overwhelm Edwards with pressure wrestling and physicality.

• Edwards previously struggled against strong wrestlers.

• Chandler was viewed as the more aggressive, tougher fighter.

What Actually Happened:

• Chandler struggled badly to impose her wrestling.

• Edwards stayed mobile, managed distance well, and picked Chandler apart at range.

• Chandler looked slow, labored, and her entries were very telegraphed.

• Edwards had visibly improved defensive footwork and striking precision.

Root Cause of Miss:

• Overestimation of Chandler’s wrestling effectiveness.

• Underestimation of Edwards’ mobility and striking improvements.

• Chandler’s poor cardio and predictability were bigger problems than expected.

Model Improvements:

• When backing pressure wrestlers, always check entry speed, cardio, and shot variety — not just “they wrestle.”

• Adjust weighting for fighters showing real recent improvements (Edwards’ footwork looked much better vs Pudilova, but maybe underweighted).

• Penalize one-dimensional wrestlers (Chandler’s wrestling had no setups).

2. Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cameron Saaiman

Prediction Logic (likely):

• Wellmaker viewed as the bigger, physically stronger fighter.

• Saaiman was coming off a bad KO loss, suggesting fragility.

• Wellmaker’s athleticism and explosiveness could overwhelm early.

What Actually Happened:

• Saaiman fought smart, stayed composed, and managed distance.

• Wellmaker gassed badly after Round 1.

• Saaiman picked him apart with superior striking fundamentals and cardio.

Root Cause of Miss:

• Overrated Wellmaker’s early explosiveness and underrated Saaiman’s recovery and composure improvements.

• Saaiman’s fight IQ was better than expected, adjusting mid-fight.

• Underweighted potential cardio crash for Wellmaker.

Model Improvements:

• When picking based on explosive athleticism, penalize severely if no evidence of Round 2–3 cardio.

• Fighters recovering from KO losses (Saaiman) should not always be auto-downgraded if they have clear technical, strategic growth.

• Reward fighters with a composure/adjustment edge against gassy brawlers.

3. Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov

Prediction Logic (likely):

• Magomedov had an early power edge and size.

• Pereira historically slowed down and fought stupidly when pressed.

• Abus had a chance to find the chin early.

What Actually Happened:

• Pereira stayed composed, patient, and defensive.

• Abus again faded quickly after Round 1, mentally and physically.

• Pereira exploited Abus’ declining output, eventually broke him down.

Root Cause of Miss:

• Underweighted Pereira’s improvement in fight IQ — much more disciplined now.

• Overvalued Abus’ early KO threat without accounting for his low adversity tolerance.

• Didn’t account enough for Abus’ historical “quitter” tendencies (he quit vs Sean Strickland).

Model Improvements:

• Fighters with proven fade patterns after Round 1 (Abus) should have a high volatility flag — downgrade prediction confidence even if the early threat is real.

• Upgrade fighters showing recent fight IQ/discipline improvements (Pereira now way smarter).

• Penalize fighters who mentally crumble under adversity (not just physical gassing).

4. Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama

Prediction Logic (likely):

• Giga was the far more technical striker with better cardio.

• Onama had power but often reckless and gassy.

• Expected Giga to pick him apart and stay safe.

What Actually Happened:

• Giga fought poorly, unusually low volume and sloppy.

• Onama caught Giga with big shots early.

• Giga never recovered mentally or physically.

Root Cause of Miss:

• Underestimated Onama’s early explosive chaos risk.

• Overestimated Giga’s durability and ability to reset under pressure.

• Giga might have had unreported issues (camp problems, injuries?), but speculative.

Model Improvements:

• When picking a technical slow starter (like Giga), penalize heavily against chaotic power punchers in the first 5 minutes.

• Fighters who don’t react well to big shots historically should be flagged even if they are more “technical.”

• Consider inactivity/lack of sharpness risk when fighters have long layoffs (Giga had 1.5+ years off).

Summary Table: